This is clearly everybody’s first storm and they’ve forgot the basics. I understand that some folks have to fight with some climo but people making sweeping statements is just ridiculous. You can say what you’re saying until you are blue in the face but most of them won’t listen.
Weathebell's maps don't. Weathermodels.com does, but I don't see as many people posting their maps anymore.
ITS ALL OVER FRO. ITS ALL OVER.
U show earlier frame?
This is the biggest reason that continue to have my doubts on a far inland track. Every model run continues to strengthen the CAD and its consistent on putting temperatures in the low to mid 20s across the Piedmont and Upstate… at some point something has to give
I'm not saying this isn't going to be a significant event along the 85 corridor. But it doesn't matter how amped it ends up being if the 50/50 pulls out too quick and the CAD high retreats the storm is going to pull inland and screw up thermals all the way back to 85. This simply just isn't looking like the huge snowstorm it had the potential to be and more of a mixed bag event. Which 95% of our storms are, it's just climo.
Now if we can keep trending west and get the transfer into the gulf….GEFS has been gettin better....Op has been getting worse. Who wins....?View attachment 104018
Wait Bull aren't we supposed to be in touch with our feelings or something?
When you speak of this, Just what areas are you speaking of? More Ice than Snow South of 85? Still Mostly Snow North of 85? A mixed bag across the Whole Board?
Well some folks get a pass due to a long history ??.Bull is ready to drop the hammer on us (me included). The stronger wave actually creates more confluent flow into PA/NY, so it makes sense that the damming is getting stronger. It was just kind of shocking seeing that wave run the apps like it did
So true. These “trends” may well be a head fake and we won’t know until the energy has been sampled. Wild shifts can happen at the last minute with northern stream energy not properly sampled (see Dec. 2010). All the “trends” away from a storm suddenly vanished when the energy was sampled. There is nothing to say the 18z ICON and about half of all the ensemble members from all suites aren’t correct with the flatter wave solution.
At this point couldn't a Miller B actually be better for the 85 corridor instead of an amped low cruising across south GA into the coastal plain?Seems if the parent low stays weak west of the apps and doesn't hit us with a warm nose and the new low pops far enough se that we may avoid the majority of its warm nose as well? We may sacrifice some precip in the transfer though. Am I out in left field with that or not?Bull is ready to drop the hammer on us (me included). The stronger wave actually creates more confluent flow into PA/NY, so it makes sense that the damming is getting stronger. It was just kind of shocking seeing that wave run the apps like it did
There's no doubt I get a little trigger happy with NW trend stuff, and we've seen things switch back at this range for sure....just didn't like what I was seeing today when we had such an excellent mix of solutions yesterday
And trust me, I’m also concerned but this makes me feel much more at ease.
Thanks and may we all see a flake or two.I personally will always take my chances with a Miller B or A/B hybrid than a straight up Miller A. Like you said it ultimately matters where that parent low transfers to the coastal… the further south the better… in a strong CAD set up, a transfer further south would be more likely
Based in current guidance I'd say with the CAD as strong as it is we're getting hit regardless. But I'd say just south of 85 would be more Sleet than anything. Once you get down close to lower upstate/northern midlands more zr for sure.
I think Feb 2014 was like that maybe as well. The problem with the 18Z op was once it popped the new surface low along the coast the high was retreating due to the 50/50 pulling out and wasn't trying to plow into a CAD.
As Webb has shown on his maps, CLT metro actually does better with Miller Bs than Miller As
Very good point. If we had the gfs showing a massive hit and the ensembles showed a miss we’d be concerned.
