packfan98
Moderator
6z GEFS is much further south and less amped than both the 0z run and the 6z GFS.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I guess the GFS is another option at this point. But like you said the euro is south so maybe the final outcome is something in between. One thing is certain, we're going to be seeing many different options with each model run during the next couple of days.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I just saw that. The GEFS really doesn’t even have a member like the GFS OP. Maybe one. I still think a mix between the EURO/GFS could happen. Regardless, it’s going to be a major winter storm whether it’s ice/snow
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Until the 6z GFS, there had been non stop southward shifts by all models. 12z suite will be interesting to see if Ukie and Euro continue shifts south or start to show a more amped system. Looks fun and very plausible we are dealing with a major SE snowstorm, either huge totals (somewhere lol) with an amped up system coming up the coast or a weaker but deep south slider. I'd say Larry isn't completely out of the game just yet
That’s beautiful 
ATLwxfan
Member
6z GFS track is insane. ATL gets pulverized. Alabama…sorry you lost but here’s a consolation prize.
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Check please! So weird to see Kuchera maps this high around here.
I'm speechless this morning. Good things happen when the jet buckles lol Love seeing upstate and midlands possibly getting in on the action. Good stuff
Yeah it’s really hard to buy into these last 2 amped GFS runs. I would expect once the low hits the ocean to see some quick strengthening with the warm SST’s, but these last two runs have had pressures as low as a category 1 hurricane
Storm5
Member
The hell ? The 06s gfs track seems Bit extreme to south side . Time will tell
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Oconeexman
Member
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Wow what a sight to wake up to. Take a blend of models and vortices close off..yada..Yada and we still have a nice little storm. Great analysis overnight fellas!
Shaggy
Member
You wouldnt happen to have individual panels cause that mean paints a different picture than the op.
packfan98
Moderator
By the way, the 6z ICON was a blockbuster storm for Virginia.
Gefs was even better and colder 
GEFS actually cut mean QPF here this run. I want to believe in these monster solutions but there’s obviously just not much ensemble support.
Peachtree City’s first map. Probably a fine hedge 5 days out lol. The next 120 will be torture
packfan98
Moderator
On the bright side, a less amped solution would be colder and not have mixing issues. There’s also potential for higher ratios.
Come to papa.The hell ? The 06s gfs track seems Bit extreme to south side . Time will tell
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Shaggy
Member
I like that the gfs ens mean seems to match closer to the euro and ukie flatter solutions. Tells.me we are sitting as well as we can at 5 days
lots of NC/SC hits on the gefs