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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

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Chazwin said:
Something interesting about that 2014 storm is that the low basically tracked right up I-95 yet there was still a good period of heavy snow on the front end before heavy sleet and some ZR on the NC Piedmont, then the foothills and western Piedmont got absolutely plastered by the deform band on the backside
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Plastered by sleet got almost 3in here of pure sleet. I despise that storm was promised all snow. Thats why I never bank on all snow in these amped up storms. I like where we are sitting currently but nervous is an understatement lol where that low tracks up the coast will have big implications on the p-types and transition lines. Will make and break ppl on here.
 
Broken024 said:
If I am remembering correctly the people in Raleigh were expecting pretty much rain only on that one but ended up getting some snow/sleet.
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I believe your right… they were expecting to get a lot more in the way of ZR, but the front end thump of snow came in earlier than expected… now with that low track, RDU did warm towards freezing more quickly than back towards CLT, but that is expected with that low track. With that storm I started off in the low 20s and it wasn’t until the deform band was pulling out the next day that the temperature going above freezing. If the CAD is strong as is being indicated, western areas from the Triad down to CLT metro into the eastern Upstate and west will hold onto CAD easier even after the feed of fresh cold air is shutoff…it takes a bit of a in-situ CAD
 
SD said:
Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
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Do you think geography explains why it tilts so early ? Or it’s favored to tilt there ? The “bottom” of the Appalachian mountains are in Birmingham so to speak , things take the path of least resistance and without something blocking it to the east it’s going to tilt earlier where it’s more geographically favored to do so . Would I be correct in this analysis?
 
Given where the icon is and how many days are left, I agree with @webb this thing will go north-west the final 48hours. Still a solid winter storm for the foothills and mtns tho. Lower elevations may be dealing with ice around Charlotte IMO.
 
The biggest thing that I’m taking away from this run of the ICON is that it continues to show a strong CAD in place with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in in central and western NC… with its warm bias this continues to line up well with other models on CAD strength
 
Lickwx said:
Do you think geography explains why it tilts so early ? Or it’s favored to tilt there ? The “bottom” of the Appalachian mountains are in Birmingham so to speak , things take the path of least resistance and without something blocking it to the east it’s going to tilt earlier where it’s more geographically favored to do so . Would I be correct in this analysis?
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I'm not sure there would be enough torque from the apps to really affect the pattern but that's a big brain question
 
smast16 said:
No, it was closer to what was shown yesterday runs with a flatter system. Not a roided up Miller A/B like today's trends
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Yes. Some of us would benefit with a little weaker shortwave. This run was weird and hooked up with the baja energy and it kept it less consolidated. I wouldn't put much stock in it.
 
Yep some just look at the snow map and don't consider how it got there. The ICON actually shows you how it can still trend weaker, our energy is getting sheared more by the Baja ull and thus never closes off and is flatter, weaker, but a high ratio event on the north side. It's the ICON yada yada yada

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I think the biggest snow winner if I chase would be Mount Rogers, Virginia. Gonna be warm nose into the foothills (Yadkinville) at minimum. Still a solid winter storm with lots to iron out but that’s my thinking so far on chasing this one.
 
So my TWC point forecast right now has a total accumulation of 7-14 inches of snow between Saturday evening and Sunday night… lol. No mention of any mixing… I definitely don’t buy that as while I certainly expect to at least get a significant amount of sleet if not some ZR as well
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I think the biggest snow winner if I chase would be Mount Rogers, Virginia. Gonna be warm nose into the foothills (Yadkinville) at minimum. Still a solid winter storm with lots to iron out but that’s my thinking so far on chasing this one.
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Id go to highlands or somewhere in Southern Jackson or Transylvania counties. They always get smoked in these setups.
 
iGRXY said:
I definitely fear the warm nose but I just really find it hard to believe that the LP is going to come THAT far north. This CAD is extremely strong. Way stronger than our usual CAD highs during winter storms.I want to wait until we are in the NAMs range before I can definitely say sleet and ZR are going to be a huge issue around the 85 corridor.
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I hear you, remember the warm nose is often underforecasted and often comes in sooner than expected; the upstate has been especially prone to this over the past few years. We definitely dont want this low to crank up anymore, or if it does it needs to dig even more.
 
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