Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Mitch West]

 

[wxdaniel]

This a beautiful look 5 days out ready and prepped for a NW trend inside 84 .. NAM should take care of this one

Let them have their moment..lol

 

[Shaggy]

If we can keep the low track 50-75 miles offshore its a big hit for many in SC/NC.......up along or on the coast and its mix city with the warm nose.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Euro/UKMET are further south/suppressed and GFS/CMC are more amped with the wave. I think the runs tonight were great for my backyard.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Euro/UKMET are further south/suppressed and GFS/CMC are more amped with the wave. I think the runs tonight were great for my backyard.

Agreed!! and the ICON wasn't so iconic!

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I know the NE/Mid-Atlantic folks are going to be mad at that Euro run yikes.

 

[griteater]

The CMC and Euro looks very similar to my eyes. Not the same blocking we saw on the GFS so I'm not sure why some are putting the two models in the same camp.

I would say the storm wave on the CMC is much stronger compared to the Euro....and goes negative tilt, where Euro does not

 

[iGRXY]

Earlier UKMET run was a warning shot for NC. Not sure I liked that EURO run.

At day 5, yes you love the EURO run. Last place you want to be at day 5 is in the bullseye on the southern end.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This thing about to bomb up the Carolina coast?

 

[brendan123]

I'm much happier with seeing suppression with cold dry air in the teens IMBY instead of mixing issues; a good look 5 days out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

These trends man…. I haven’t seen trends this good leading up to a event since 2018

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

GFS v/s Euro.

View attachment 103656

Euro/UKMET are further south/suppressed and GFS/CMC are more amped with the wave. I think the runs tonight were great for my backyard.

A blend of the GFS/CMC/EMCF is money for that Conyers to Loganville corridor lol. I like!

 

[Shaggy]

At day 5, yes you love the EURO run. Last place you want to be at day 5 is in the bullseye on the southern end.

Exactly. At this range the ensemble means are still the most relevant but we want a flat euro/ukie mix if you ask me. Blend that with the amped gfs and cmc and we have a perfect track for everyone.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The vibes I’m getting from this is February 2014

 

[Jrips2710]

One of the winners on that CMC snow map... Athens, GA... Maybe they'll bring that magic back home

 

[Arcc]

These trends man…. I haven’t seen trends this good leading up to a event since 2018 View attachment 103661View attachment 103662View attachment 103663

This is exactly how 12/7/17 started out.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Really like where things are sitting, I think the trend will be our friend

 

[Chandler]

Much colder run so far, would expect a more south look

 

[griteater]

Euro Ens Mean

 

[Chandler]

And here’s your snow mean, just beautiful. Wish weather models had run changes and precip output