LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
wow, strong wrapped up wave tracks from N MS thru the NC Mtns, to just west of DC....character of this storm has changed a ton.
The low ends up running up through central VA switching the big cites to rain.
Storm5
Member
Will be interesting to see if the gfs trends towards the euro or euro trends towards gfs . Something's gotta give
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Flotown
Member
None of us will have hair by friday
ajr
Member
Definitely going to Avery county to chase
I guess it can bomb and stay inland but not sure I’m sold on that just yet.Front end thump to rain for many in eastern NC
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Even has mixing issues here in Roanoke which is crazy. How much further NW is this going to track.
Gross gross gross
Yep. I hope people remember when they claim how awesome the Euro is how the GFS led the way with this storm.
Very out of character for them. I’m guessing the next shift will start downplaying it.
You can see why it's going more NW and it's probably right. These 50/50 lows always move away quicker as time gets closer.
Remember that time we were tracking a deep south, suppressed, winter event. ?
Remember that time we were tracking a deep south, suppressed, winter event. ?
I moved to Emerald Isle this year, so that guarantees no snow here. Sorry to all you beach peeps wanting white sand.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The euro peaked almost a decade ago. It’s no better than any of these other models now a days
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Nearly sleet at 19 degreesEven has mixing issues here in Roanoke which is crazy. How much further NW is this going to track.
Oh lord...you just can't help but laugh. Can't take any of these runs seriously until the trend stops...right now this is headed to Chicago.
Good lord, some of you do really do have this “ride or die” mentality when it comes to following each model run and grasping at straws when it comes to hugging one suite. I get it, we all want snow. But it’s Tuesday and this storm is still 6 days away. This is why it’s never good to be in the bullseye 6-7 days out, also. Still a long ways to go on this system. Throwing in the towel at this is semi ridiculous. Chill out and if by tomorrow night Thursday things are trending good or bad, depending on your location, then you all start preparing to cliff dive. Until then, relax.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Got to agree, it’s not like it’s shifting NW 48 hours before the storm.
This continues to become more a Miller B mixed bag, no matter how amped we get, we’re not escaping the ice/sleet in NC (especially the Piedmont) with how cold the CAD that gets entrenched is, absolutely ridiculous cold air with this CAD
True. When you account for that, congrats Seattle.
Seriously though, it's hard to reverse once things start amping. Never say never, but it's hard.
Not throwing in any towel but have you watched how the composite models have evolved this in the last 36hrs? Whether you want to call it a trend or just model-learning as we get closer to the event you can sure see what's happening and how the models are closing in towards a single solution.
alfoman
Member
Besides the shortwave being slightly held back and stronger on this run, the biggest difference I saw was the speed of the northern stream energy above the ULL. It is noticeably slower at hour 114 which delays the final phase some and allows the low to move farther inland. However, the GFS does have a progressive bias, so this result could be overdone as well. We shall see, but there is no need to panic what so ever. We still have multiple days of headaches ahead and many trends yet to see.
I think of it like this...for days 7 down to 4 (days prior to the storm), it doesn't have to be just right, but you want it going in the right direction. This isn't going in the right direction except for some in the NC mountains and up into Western VA. Things can still change, but at day 4, we don't want the Titanic moving toward the iceberg.
Jessy89
Member
Seems clear a lot of places will see all precip types. Snow sleet freezing rain. For that reason it may be hard to get historic snow totals.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
No, because I’ve watched models do this in the past only to hone back into the original solution like what was being shown yesterday. I’ve also seen storms completely go poof and come back 48 hours beforehand.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
While the 18z GEFS is slighty more amped, it actually looked slightly better in the 50/50 region, let’s hope this is the start of something 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah, can't say I am surprised at the GFS's north trend. Now, if the Euro shifts north tonight, we should consider it a valid problem.
Yes I've watched a few too but betting this storm will not go poof and come back again 2 days before H-hour. The trends have similarly (to varying wobbles and degrees) all gone in one direction. Now if they were back and forth from run to run you might be on to something. Sure, it could de-intensify, flatten and move more off the coast but not with what is happening to the shortwave diving out of Canada at the moment.
alfoman
Member
I do not like the fact that the GFS has trended towards more seperation between the 50/50 feature and the energy dropping down from canada. We need something to prevent it from cutting as hard as it as at the moment.
If you rely on each individual run then you are in for a LONG week. It will shift and sway back and forth MANY times before Thursday, let alone Sunday. Ensembles are the best now and once the SW gets onshore and is sampled better, then you can start focusing in on the operational runs...
Problem is, the 50/50 and the storm wave have the same amount of separation....so, it's like they both just slowed down there progress a bit. But you would need the 50/50 to be in the farther south position, while not moving the storm wave (so they are closer together) to get the benefit
UNCSC
Member
What’s the totals look like for those members?
A slightly weaker southern upper low would fix a lot of these issues...why does everything have to cut off and dig to San Deigo. ?
ATLwxfan
Member
True. Lots of very short memories here. Remember when the Canadian first had the storm and no other model did. Then suddenly it vanished and popped up on the GFS. This is the usual dance and it ain’t for the faint of heart.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk