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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

DopplerWx said:
i'll be shocked if clt metro sees 4-6" tbh. 1-2" of sleet sure but not snow.
View attachment 105109
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The thing is… GSP isn’t going to change their forecast based on one run of one model. Right
now based on all the info, I think 4-6” is a reasonable first call for the NW half of the Metro and 2-3” for the SW half
 
metwannabe said:
By 0z we will be really be getting in 3k NAM range, seems like we've been tracking this forever lol

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_60.png
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Yeah maybe the storm cranks up after that, but that radar looks pretty anemic.
 
I just don't see 12-18 in Marion sleet is going to really hamper those totals if anything I see GSP knocking down those totals wouldn't be the first time. This is a tuff forecast going to have to wait till go time to get an idea of thermals very small adjustments can make or break the foothills. I'd say 3-5 is a safer bet for Burke Caldwell McDowell counties except for elevations above 2500ft with up to an 1in of sleet. Above 2500 I could see a foot along the escarpment.
 
BufordWX said:
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

GAZ006>009-014>016-023>025-027-141000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.220116T0000Z-220117T0600Z/
Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Hall-Banks-Jackson-
Madison-
Including the cities of Dahlonega, Cleveland, and Gainesville
424 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts in
the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, and ice
accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch possible. Winds
could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Georgia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
ice. Travel could be very difficult due to snow and ice
accumulation on roads.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
c6265f49-6b4a-4d7c-b0a2-11b32d318652-jpeg.105104

Be careful guys; this is the "High End" map that has gotten us before. I think this is the 90% confidence map that this will be the highest totals - in other words a 90% chance that totals will be less than this. Somewhere they have other maps that show low end and mid range. We need to check those out.
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Here’s the low end! A bit higher than I expected tbh.

7FD1271D-A72E-4D88-8E4E-A586E1781098.jpeg
 
True...but in their own WSW they mention 4-8 in the 85 Corridor

Iceagewhereartthou said:
c6265f49-6b4a-4d7c-b0a2-11b32d318652-jpeg.105104

Be careful guys; this is the "High End" map that has gotten us before. I think this is the 90% confidence map that this will be the highest totals - in other words a 90% chance that totals will be less than this. Somewhere they have other maps that show low end and mid range. We need to check those out.
Click to expand...
 
CLTwx said:
True...but in their own WSW they mention 4-8 in the 85 Corridor
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I just checked it
6-8” for the NW Piedmont
4-6” for the I-85 corridor
2-3” south of I-85
I’m assuming that these include sleet since it is included in official weather records as snowfall
 
Nashville saying not so fast on some of the model totals.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
318 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

.DISCUSSION...

UGH! What a hard and challenging forecast.

The upper impulse will continue to move through the area for the
next couple of hours and skies should clear out a bit overnight.
Tomorrow /Friday/ will be dry. Now here comes the challenges! The
models are still all over the place with no consistency to each
other or even to themselves. The NAM low had been moving north to
come in line better with the GFS and EURO but not the 12/18Z runs.
Was hoping there would be some kind of meeting in the middle for
the models...but no luck as of right now. The previous forecast
had the heaviest snow over NW Tennessee and along the TN/KY state
line. Current forecast now has the heaviest snow over the Plateau.
Let/s go with there will be a band of heavier snow somewhere
around I-40 and north. Where...your guess is as good as mine. The
higher amounts look to be in the 4-6" range...not some of the
crazier high end extreme amounts floating around the internet
right now.

Friday night into Saturday expect a really cold rain maybe with a
few flurries mixed in. It will take some time for the boundary
layer to cool down and moisten up. If any snow falls no
accumulations expected. With highs on Saturday in the 40s it will
be raining until possible late afternoon where there could be a
rain/snow mix first starting in the Fentress/Picket county areas
then spreading down the Plateau and west across the KY/TN state
line. That rain snow mix continues southward overnight and changes
to all snow for I-40 northward and the Plateau. The system pulls
out Sunday night and morning lows on Monday will be in the upper
teens to lower 20s. Would expect there will be some travel issues
Sunday night and maybe into Monday.

Highs on Monday in the 30s...so there could be some residual
wintery stuff around. Lows Monday night into Tuesday continued
cold in the 20s...but highs on Tuesday in the 40s so everything
should melt.

There is another short wave Wednesday and Wednesday night. Chance
PoP no really QPF expected at this time.
 
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