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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Justin Buchinsky said:
I just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.

NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.

NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.

It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.

Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
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It's been four years for me. Jan 2018 in Raleigh. In Asheville atm, I'm excited but cautious (because of what happened in Asheville in December of 2018)
 
For people in central NC it’s certainly interesting the NAM kept the low east and there for we went from 28 to 32 to then 36 as we peaked there. That wedge gets any more staying power or that low is slightly further East when it makes that move up the coast .. there will be a defined area that stays below freezing and depicting that will be hard at this stage
 
You don't start taking warning shots from the NAM until we are under 48 hours. And really you want to pay more attention to the 3K and that's more around 30hrs. We are still well outside the NAMs range for temp profiles right now so everybody relax and don't let your PTSD kill you
 
Does gsp has data that we don’t know about this storm and that’s how they come out with there snowfall totals
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
For people in central NC it’s certainly interesting the NAM kept the low east and there for we went from 28 to 32 to then 36 as we peaked there. That wedge gets any more staying power or that low is slightly further East when it makes that move up the coast .. there will be a defined area that stays below freezing and depicting that will be hard at this stage
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The zr shield definitely expanded east more with warning criteria very close to the coastal plains now
 
DopplerWx said:
i'll be shocked if clt metro sees 4-6" tbh. 1-2" of sleet sure but not snow.
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Agreed. Very surprised about that. Can't think of a model that shows that much snow for clt without serious (or all for that matter) mixing.

I'm also curious about the amount of precip that actual falls. A lot of times these storms underperform. Starting to watch the 3k at this point.
 
By 0z we will be really be getting in 3k NAM range, seems like we've been tracking this forever lol

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_60.png
 
DopplerWx said:
would start to temper expectations on the front snow band, we know how these things usually go when the nam starts firing warning shots like this. fully expect to start as sleet and hope to see some snow on the backend.
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With that track backend snow will not make it into the upstate, it will curl up the spine of the apps and mtns of NC. Sometimes you can get cyclogenesis snow to form in the NC piedmont for a last gasp but that apps track probably won't deliver. Hopefully this run is bonkers. If the NAM continues this though, we are in trouble.
 
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