FamouslyHot
Member
18z GFS coming in now
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
maybe we can luck out on some back end snow
Gonna have a accum map shortly guys, been busy at work today and cussed somebody out lol
TigerSnow
Member
What are we considering the 85 corridor? How far north? I’m in Huntersville and I think we will be lucky to get 2” of snow. Sleet seems more likely.
The back end snow will end up going over the areas that get hit with the brunt of the storm. So they will basically get all of it. Energy flys to far Northwest of us. If we can't make the main system work, this storm will be a wiff for Central SC. Still 48 hours to go before a firm forecast is set though.
njbarrineau
Member
Be careful guys; this is the "High End" map that has gotten us before. I think this is the 90% confidence map that this will be the highest totals - in other words a 90% chance that totals will be less than this. Somewhere they have other maps that show low end and mid range. We need to check those out.
Even for the high end map, GSP is going all in! I don’t remember numbers that high.
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That would be in the 4-6” area of the map which right now seems reasonable. You got to remember when they are putting these accumulations out there, they are for snow and sleet accumulations. Sleet is counted as snowfall in official weather records.
Edit: to add to this there’s always a lot of questioning of GSP’s maps, but often it’s due to them not putting out high enough numbers to match what we read on models. That team does an outstanding job and the have their reasons for their forecast. They will make adjustments as needed.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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GFS is a tad SE at least with low track.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The backend snow on the GFS looks solid.
Stormlover
Member
from wxsouth From WxSouth: Latest model data continues to come in, one by one, all dipping further south and east. Colder for all areas north of the storms track. More precip, more ice, more snow in areas I've already outlined. The trend continues for a serious Winter storm across the MidSouth to MidAtlantic.
NWMSGuy
Member
Nice writeup by Memphis this afternoon:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Pleasant day underway across the Mid-South with some
mid clouds moving across area and temps in the 50s and lower 60s.
Tonight and Friday...Weak high pressure will skirt the region with
slightly cooler but dry weather. Lows tonight will be in the 30s
and highs in Friday from the 40s north to 50s south.
Friday night through Sunday...Two pieces of energy, one from the
Pacific NW and one from southern Canada, will combine over the
plains. This upper low along with its attendant surface low, will
drop due south into the southern plains and then head east across
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain will spread into the Friday
night and Saturday. As the upper low tracks into MS Saturday night
and continues to rapidly deepen, expect a well defined
deformation zone/TROWAL to set up somewhere across the Mid-South.
Expect rain to change to snow from NW to SE partially due to CAA
but also due to strong upward motion cooling the warm layers
aloft. Current snowfall forecasts do not do a great job conveying
the potential impacts from this winter storm. Locations that find
themselves with this band N/NW of the upper low will likely see
significant snowfall while areas outside the band may not see
much. The period of time of greatest threat is from around
midnight until mid morning Sunday. During this time the surface
low moves slowly across from east MS into AL. The deformation zone
pivots across the region and wherever that pivot occurs will be
the jackpot area for snow. The 12z guidance has an array of
potential solutions and seems to have shifted somewhat southward.
We will be using along and north of the TN/MS line rather than
I-40 as a reference point for the areas with the best chance of
significant snowfall but keep in mid this area will likely change.
Wind will also be a consideration given the tight gradient. North
winds at 15 to 20 mph gusts on the north side of this system seem
reasonable. A watch was considered but since impacts will likely
start well into the 5th period will hold off this forecast cycle.
Snow will taper off Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night into Tuesday night...Temps will be driven by snow
cover to some extent. For now looks like lows in the 20s Monday
morning though not sure what this following shortwave moving
through on NW flow will do. Could send some cloud cover our way.
Undercut NBM on Monday highs as high pressure builds in and
prevails through Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday...Next system may impact the area Wednesday
into Thursday with perhaps some winter weather. Some ingredients
are there but honestly have not focused much on it with the
upcoming winter storm. The active pattern continues.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Pleasant day underway across the Mid-South with some
mid clouds moving across area and temps in the 50s and lower 60s.
Tonight and Friday...Weak high pressure will skirt the region with
slightly cooler but dry weather. Lows tonight will be in the 30s
and highs in Friday from the 40s north to 50s south.
Friday night through Sunday...Two pieces of energy, one from the
Pacific NW and one from southern Canada, will combine over the
plains. This upper low along with its attendant surface low, will
drop due south into the southern plains and then head east across
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain will spread into the Friday
night and Saturday. As the upper low tracks into MS Saturday night
and continues to rapidly deepen, expect a well defined
deformation zone/TROWAL to set up somewhere across the Mid-South.
Expect rain to change to snow from NW to SE partially due to CAA
but also due to strong upward motion cooling the warm layers
aloft. Current snowfall forecasts do not do a great job conveying
the potential impacts from this winter storm. Locations that find
themselves with this band N/NW of the upper low will likely see
significant snowfall while areas outside the band may not see
much. The period of time of greatest threat is from around
midnight until mid morning Sunday. During this time the surface
low moves slowly across from east MS into AL. The deformation zone
pivots across the region and wherever that pivot occurs will be
the jackpot area for snow. The 12z guidance has an array of
potential solutions and seems to have shifted somewhat southward.
We will be using along and north of the TN/MS line rather than
I-40 as a reference point for the areas with the best chance of
significant snowfall but keep in mid this area will likely change.
Wind will also be a consideration given the tight gradient. North
winds at 15 to 20 mph gusts on the north side of this system seem
reasonable. A watch was considered but since impacts will likely
start well into the 5th period will hold off this forecast cycle.
Snow will taper off Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night into Tuesday night...Temps will be driven by snow
cover to some extent. For now looks like lows in the 20s Monday
morning though not sure what this following shortwave moving
through on NW flow will do. Could send some cloud cover our way.
Undercut NBM on Monday highs as high pressure builds in and
prevails through Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday...Next system may impact the area Wednesday
into Thursday with perhaps some winter weather. Some ingredients
are there but honestly have not focused much on it with the
upcoming winter storm. The active pattern continues.
SnowNiner
Member
That's the more likely scenario IMO. I really do not trust any wrap-around snow/back side snow, unless there's a modeled legit deformation band.
NoSnowATL
Member
I like how they think the GFS is crap. Good video
DadOfJax
Member
Let’s reel this one in for I20 northward to the state line…from wxsouth From WxSouth: Latest model data continues to come in, one by one, all dipping further south and east. Colder for all areas north of the storms track. More precip, more ice, more snow in areas I've already outlined. The trend continues for a serious Winter storm across the MidSouth to MidAtlantic.
Stormlover
Member
not all all, they agree with him
Some backside snow on the GFS, ideally we need the ULL to pass around Columbia SC for any real/legitimate backside snow in the Carolinas 
Yep. If you want the back end snow you must pay attention to where the ULL goes.
Edit: The 18z GFS did continue to eek south though.
Attachments
He’s saying the models are trending south and snowier, NAM, icon and GFS latest runs are North