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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

BufordWX said:
It is weird to me that they have a whole tier of counties further southwest in the impact expected tier as opposed to the watch. I’m gonna bet it gets expanded tomorrow morning.
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Yep. Playing the waiting game which I think is smart with so much uncertainty. We are still like 54 hours out anyways. I agree another strip will be added overnight if things hold.
 
I’m so confused one local met says wintry precipitation another say all rain, another 1 degree is all it takes and doesn’t know, if any of you could post maps for precipitation in the 29821 and 30809 zip I would truly appreciate it. TIA Raine
 
DopplerWx said:
And the chances at front end snow are dwindling quickly
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This looks way to moist to me, many models at this time have a large dry layer in the low levels/sfc, which is the main driver in dynamical cooling/front end snow setups. There’s one that doesn’t look like the others. This to me looks like the OP GFS underestimating the damming setup, this is important because Virga falling on low level dry air temporarily counteracts the progression of warm air advection via dynamical cooling, the GFS is very moist and wouldn’t allow such a setup, it’s a huge outlier 413B4317-11F2-4C5F-A741-F179A8D50988.png356B6A8B-8D34-42D5-82A2-04F2537D565E.pngB95825E2-6CB2-4AB0-971F-2F1DE9FFF25F.pngFD8EAB65-A47B-4C10-8A29-4C7415470220.png95E8980E-BCF8-4B97-8220-137BB5E422FA.png
 
Feel free to move to the call maps thread but here's my general thoughts for this storm.

Mountain and Foothill areas(Asheville, Boone to about Morganton, Lenoir, Wilkesboro along with extreme NW SC and NE GA): 8"+ Snow, mixing may be possible but seems unlikely

Northern and Western Piedmont(Shelby, Lincolnton, Hickory, Statesville to just W of Greensboro and Upstate SC north of 85): 4-8" of snow, .5" of sleet, glaze of ZR. this could bust either higher or lower for snow.

CLT Metro and Upstate SC along and south of 85(Gastonia, Rock Hill, Fort Mill, Huntersville, Davidson, Concord, ect.): 1-3"of snow, .5-2" of sleet, and .10-.25"+ of ZR. Going conservative on ZR due to my belief that sleet will be the dominant p-type in the CLT metro along with the fact that heavy ZR does not accrue very well and most models have the ZR being very heavy.

Northern Midlands of SC and Eastern Piedmont of NC(Lancaster, Pageland, Raleigh-Durham, ect.): .10-.25"+ of ZR, possible changeover to rain. I feel like this area could bust higher for ZR if the CAD proves deeper and stronger, if not then a changeover to rain might happen.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Yep. Playing the waiting game which I think is smart with so much uncertainty. We are still like 54 hours out anyways. I agree another strip will be added overnight if things hold.
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You gotta wonder though. The GFS isn’t impressive for metro ATL outside of the areas currently under watches. Also the ZR threat appears diminished. That may induce some healthy skepticism.


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Regardless of tentative accumulations, models are pointing out an area encompassing the CLT metro that has the highest probability for the most ZR. Does Charlotte look to stay below freezing for the duration of the entire storm? If so this may spell trouble for roads with ZR and IP.
 
Something to remember not that it's always proven to be right because well, we're in the south. And winter weather is hard to come by, in general. In the beginning, this storm was originally going to be a CAD region storm. With the exception of the Upper NW TN Valley into Northern Arkansas. Then things progressed and we started to see a lot more of us added to the prospects of a major winter storm. Now that we're closer in, expectations have been tempered across most of the south after the latest models. Not that it has anything to do with final outcome, but more often than not, models tend to overdue snow, ice, etc then reality sets in. And more often than not, sometimes the original modeling comes out being correct. Just amounts and exact locations vary. Just my 2 cents though. Take it or leave it. But I really do wish everyone luck. Really hope we can all be pleasantly surprised! ?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
You will be right more times than not if you take the Nam, EURO, and CMC blend. Let's just see what the 0z suite has to say.
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I haven’t bought into the GFS the last 2 days… I’m especially not going to worry about it’s thermals when we’re so close to being able to follow that on the NAM and HRRR
 
Cadi40 said:
Regardless of tentative accumulations, models are pointing out an area encompassing the CLT metro that has the highest probability for the most ZR. Does Charlotte look to stay below freezing for the duration of the entire storm? If so this may spell trouble for roads with ZR and IP.
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Charlotte is probably gonna stay below freezing with temperatures in the peak being in the mid-20s.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Yep. Playing the waiting game which I think is smart with so much uncertainty. We are still like 54 hours out anyways. I agree another strip will be added overnight if things hold.
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Looking at the NBM shows some reasons for why they put the watch where so far. The 2 inch+ area matches up somewhat with the current watch. I’m very interested to see where we go with the next set of models.6B150812-1C3F-4C8E-8B0B-7D341D5B682A.png
 
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