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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

njbarrineau said:
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


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Either a less amped system or the L being closer to the coast for the upstate of South Carolina. The L brings upper level heat with it
 
njbarrineau said:
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Most of the time we don’t even see a warm nose modeled and it still verifies having one. The fact it’s modeled so strong should be a flag for most that it’s gonna be icy there is really no looking back at this point ?
 
My first call snow/sleet map, I went on the slighty lower side vs models/NWS offices. given the chances of cutting down/warm nose, however, I do think many areas along 85 start out as snow including CLT/GSP/GSO, and even areas like Raleigh could have a quick shot at some snow/then to sleet longer. I have a black dashed line for bust potential if dynamical cooling is very successful in keeping front end snow longer, however I eventually think this switches to sleet and there could even be a couple of inches of sleet in some spots, as you get in the foothills/upper part of the SC upstate into NE GA snow totals increase given there are in a better spot/axis where colder 850s can hold longer, I do however even expect those areas to change to IP. the mountains/VA around RNK I think score big in this setup, the only thing I could possibly see going wrong here is the mid level dry slot aloft passing over and cutting Down on snow totals for the NC mountains/VA
C58EDB2D-4126-4716-AAC8-50EDB296EC80.jpeg

Now for the ice map, while I normally see ice being cut down by sleet lasting longer, I think this setup is a little bit different imo, the SFC low as soon as it enters C/ENC hooks back a bit and delivers a very large warm nose in the Piedmont of NC/upstate of SC, which I think takes things over to freezing rain for a solid 3-6 hours, this could cause some big ice accretion, especially around the NC/SC border into Charlotte, damaging impacts from the ice appear likely (esp in the dashed line), esp with there being some wind in this setup. Imo i think areas as far/east as ENC/low country of SC could see some brief ice, with Columbia SC seeing some decent icing, when it comes to the ice however, I’m on the colder camps of this setup, I do expect areas further east to change to rain however, including Raleigh/Fayetteville 55B1AA93-EB88-46A4-901C-B8435EEE2DB7.jpeg
 
njbarrineau said:
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
1. ULL not closing off until it gets close to the SE which would keep it further south as it moves over is basically the best and most ideal for the whole system.
2. FGEN out ahead of the system causing more unexpected precip helping lock in the CAD earlier and crashing the column allowing more snow earlier until the warm nose eventually takes over.

Those are probably the easiest and most realistic solutions considering how much time is left for trends.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Most of the time we don’t even see a warm nose modeled and it still verifies having one. The fact it’s modeled so strong should be a flag for most that it’s gonna be icy there is really no looking back at this point
Click to expand...

I always expect it, whether it shows up on models or not. It reminds me of Cousin Eddy from Christmas Vacation. Uninvited but shows up anyway, and a pain in the a$$ once it’s here.


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Not sure if anybody has posted the RAH briefing. One thing they show is a stronger hold of cold air from Raleigh westward. But they also don't show the high amounts of wintery precip some of the models are showing; which goes to the point that models tend to overdue amounts (especially freezing rain).

 
Myfrotho704_ said:
My first call snow/sleet map, I went on the slighty lower side vs models/NWS offices. given the chances of cutting down/warm nose, however, I do think many areas along 85 start out as snow including CLT/GSP/GSO, and even areas like Raleigh could have a quick shot at some snow/then to sleet longer. I have a black dashed line for bust potential if dynamical cooling is very successful in keeping front end snow longer, however I eventually think this switches to sleet and there could even be a couple of inches of sleet in some spots, as you get in the foothills/upper part of the SC upstate into NE GA snow totals increase given there are in a better spot/axis where colder 850s can hold longer, I do however even expect those areas to change to IP. the mountains/VA around RNK I think score big in this setup, the only thing I could possibly see going wrong here is the mid level dry slot aloft passing over and cutting Down on snow totals for the NC mountains/VA
View attachment 105170

Now for the ice map, while I normally see ice being cut down by sleet lasting longer, I think this setup is a little bit different imo, the SFC low as soon as it enters C/ENC hooks back a bit and delivers a very large warm nose in the Piedmont of NC/upstate of SC, which I think takes things over to freezing rain for a solid 3-6 hours, this could cause some big ice accretion, especially around the NC/SC border into Charlotte, damaging impacts from the ice appear likely (esp in the dashed line), esp with there being some wind in this setup. Imo i think areas as far/east as ENC/low country of SC could see some brief ice, with Columbia SC seeing some decent icing, when it comes to the ice however, I’m on the colder camps of this setup, I do expect areas further east to change to rain however, including Raleigh/Fayetteville View attachment 105171
Click to expand...
Really good map. This entire system is high bust potential both high and low depending on how much front end snow we get and if the column can fight the warm nose longer.
 
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