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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Sheesh

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every weather model site has slightly different snowfall algorithms BUT the differences in outputs for the exact same model run are extraordinarily large. marginal thermals, mixing issues, etc really giving the algorithms a hard time

for example, the 18z GFS for here shows...
tropical tidbits: 2"
college of dupage: 8.4" (10:1), 4.7" (kuchera)
pivotal weather: 5.8"
weatherbell: 6.4"

buyer beware lol
 
njbarrineau said:
Even when one is modeled, I feel like it hardly ever makes it over the mountains. I wish it would though!


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Idk about that. In the December 2018 storm I had a solid 3 inches at the end of that storm from an ULL. They have potential in these kinds of storms


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Not really buying the back end snow in much of NC/SC outside the mountains. we need the upper level low further south for me to bite on the backend snow, DGZs are dried up while ptype maps are trying to show snow, I’m more intrigued by front end snow then I am back end snow atm E98F6B75-B630-4ED3-A247-D4990B7D02E0.png9F517CA5-79E3-48C8-9919-0CB476A3F1C1.png
 
cyclogent said:
every weather model site has slightly different snowfall algorithms BUT the differences in outputs for the exact same model run are extraordinarily large. marginal thermals, mixing issues, etc really giving the algorithms a hard time

for example, the 18z GFS for here shows...
tropical tidbits: 2"
college of dupage: 8.4" (10:1), 4.7" (kuchera)
pivotal weather: 5.8"
weatherbell: 6.4"

buyer beware lol
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Very interesting…..might explain why the snowfall totals for places like Chattanooga and Dalton weren’t even close for January 2nd storm
 
BirdManDoomW said:
For further clarification. It’s often under modeled and creates headaches when people try to get groceries the day before the storm. Why does this matter for the rest of us you ask? It can help build and lock that CAD in. View attachment 104957
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We had that feature on the big 96 storm. Several inches out in front of the main show. ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not really buying the back end snow in much of NC/SC outside the mountains. we need the upper level low further south for me to bite on the backend snow, DGZs are dried up while ptype maps are trying to show snow, I’m more intrigued by front end snow then I am back end snow atm View attachment 105137View attachment 105138
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Agreed, once the storm gets to the nc coast I think it's likely done. We usually get most if not all of our qpf when storms are to our sw and se imo.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not really buying the back end snow in much of NC/SC outside the mountains. we need the upper level low further south for me to bite on the backend snow, DGZs are dried up while ptype maps are trying to show snow, I’m more intrigued by front end snow then I am back end snow atm View attachment 105137View attachment 105138
Click to expand...
And the chances at front end snow are dwindling quickly
1642113141138.png
 
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