warm nose already evident in the upstate
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
Couple that with the fact that it will help lock in CAD and further cool the column is important with this.
That's the 12z.
This is what I want to see .. backside .. something ??
Yeah, the NAM is a major winter storm for many of us, it just isn’t a lot of snow outside the mountains. But after recent years, a couple inches of sleet in the 20s wouldn’t be too terrible…at least I can sled in itMost still found a way to get NAMED.
GSP’s first weenie “high end” map is out. Do not put much stock in this, it likely won’t occur 
lj0109
Member
CAE issues Winter Storm Watch for northern tier of CWA:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
Chesterfield-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-
Including the cities of Cheraw, Pageland, Newberry, Winnsboro,
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Indian Land, Lancaster, Elgin,
and Lancaster Mill
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to one quarter of an inch possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central South Carolina.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night.
* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
Chesterfield-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-
Including the cities of Cheraw, Pageland, Newberry, Winnsboro,
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Indian Land, Lancaster, Elgin,
and Lancaster Mill
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to one quarter of an inch possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central South Carolina.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night.
* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.
I know that run of the NAM was much warmer than the 12Z run, but it was also much faster than the 12Z run. It also brought the LP up the NC Coastal Plain instead of through the Triangle.
packfan98
Moderator
Yes it was much faster. The Euro was a little stronger on the 12z and it resulted on a more potent thump on the front end. Pros and cons to almost every scenario now.
JLL1973
Member
im astonished at how this has trended for the midsouth. several models are showing crush jobs for north ms ans southwest tn
Happens every time lol, that marginal setup last early February Iin SC for ex the NAMS rushed in a warm nose and discounted dynamical cooling and just had IP, while the HRRR showed snow associated with the dynamical cooling, I’d be worried if the HRRR sucks through hour 36
i'll be shocked if clt metro sees 4-6" tbh. 1-2" of sleet sure but not snow.
Most aggressive map I’ve ever seen from them, in my entire life! ?
NWMSGuy
Member
Looks like Little Rock has also pulled a Winter Storm Watch for portions of their CWA.
Justin Buchinsky
Member
I just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.
NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.
NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.
It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.
Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.
NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.
It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.
Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
This. We’re not even in the best range of the NAM yet LOL
iGRXY
Member
They have models and data that we have no clue about. They definitely know what they're doing and they are ULTRA conservative.
uncjibble
Member
At this point of completely striking out the past few winters I would be happy with a sleet fest. Just keep the ice away... Snow>Sleet>Rain>Ice
lj0109
Member
CAE's AFD laying out their thinking for the SC Midlands as of 4PM:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
400 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rapidly deepening low pressure in the western Atlantic Basin
will continue tracking away from the region Friday with high
pressure and drier air building in through the afternoon and
evening hours. As the high builds eastward through the Great
Lakes region colder air will be pushed southward along the
Appalachians and into the Carolinas. This will be the beginning
of the complex scenario with cold air damming entering the
northern portions of the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday morning however the southern extend of the cold air
damming remains in question with the latest expectation being
into the central Midlands with the coldest air from Chesterfield
through Newberry counties. With the cold air damming being in
place by midday Saturday the piece in the scenario being low
pressure from the western Gulf States moves eastward and begins
spreading moisture and warm air northward toward the forecast
area. This resulting temperature gradient will produce high
temperatures Saturday ranging from the mid 40s along the NC
border to the upper 50s in the southern CSRA with concern that
temperatures may be too high in the northern Midlands. Rain is
expected to begin Saturday evening across most of the forecast
area and with pwat values pushing one inch precip rates could be
a concern as the temperatures begin falling. As the low
approaches Saturday evening the cold air damming will be
strengthening resulting in a chance from rain to freezing rain
in the Pee Dee shortly after midnight and spreading into the
western Midlands shortly thereafter. Overnight the freezing rain
line will continue creeping southward and reach the central
Midlands around 5 am. As the low moves closer to the forecast
area it will take a northeasterly track and models so low level
temperatures warming and the freezing rain line retreating
northward during the sunrise and late morning hours. Concern
remains for the northern Midlands and Pee Dee where the cold air
damming will be tough to erode and expect freezing rain to
continue through midday. By early afternoon a precip should have
changed back to rain however this will be short lived as the low
center will be tracking east of the forecast area and
northwesterly flow along with colder air overtaking the region.
This will result in a mix of rain and snow Sunday evening into
Sunday night however no accumulation of snow is expected. Sunday
night concern will be temperatures going back below freezing and
the wet ground and roadways turning to ice. Although road
temperatures are currently warm much will change between now and
Sunday afternoon so will continue to monitor for icing issues.
As a result of this scenario and model to model and run to run
consistency being good have opted to issue a winter storm watch
for Lancaster, Chesterfield, Fairfield, Kershaw and Newberry
counties. This is for ice accumulations late Saturday evening
through Sunday across that area of one tenth to one quarter
inch. Freezing rain amounts from the watch area through the
central Midlands are expected to be one tenth of an inch or less
with no freezing rain accumulation in the southern Midlands and
CSRA. Will continue to monitor cold air damming strength and
south push of the cold air which could result in expanding the
watch area further south.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
400 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rapidly deepening low pressure in the western Atlantic Basin
will continue tracking away from the region Friday with high
pressure and drier air building in through the afternoon and
evening hours. As the high builds eastward through the Great
Lakes region colder air will be pushed southward along the
Appalachians and into the Carolinas. This will be the beginning
of the complex scenario with cold air damming entering the
northern portions of the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday morning however the southern extend of the cold air
damming remains in question with the latest expectation being
into the central Midlands with the coldest air from Chesterfield
through Newberry counties. With the cold air damming being in
place by midday Saturday the piece in the scenario being low
pressure from the western Gulf States moves eastward and begins
spreading moisture and warm air northward toward the forecast
area. This resulting temperature gradient will produce high
temperatures Saturday ranging from the mid 40s along the NC
border to the upper 50s in the southern CSRA with concern that
temperatures may be too high in the northern Midlands. Rain is
expected to begin Saturday evening across most of the forecast
area and with pwat values pushing one inch precip rates could be
a concern as the temperatures begin falling. As the low
approaches Saturday evening the cold air damming will be
strengthening resulting in a chance from rain to freezing rain
in the Pee Dee shortly after midnight and spreading into the
western Midlands shortly thereafter. Overnight the freezing rain
line will continue creeping southward and reach the central
Midlands around 5 am. As the low moves closer to the forecast
area it will take a northeasterly track and models so low level
temperatures warming and the freezing rain line retreating
northward during the sunrise and late morning hours. Concern
remains for the northern Midlands and Pee Dee where the cold air
damming will be tough to erode and expect freezing rain to
continue through midday. By early afternoon a precip should have
changed back to rain however this will be short lived as the low
center will be tracking east of the forecast area and
northwesterly flow along with colder air overtaking the region.
This will result in a mix of rain and snow Sunday evening into
Sunday night however no accumulation of snow is expected. Sunday
night concern will be temperatures going back below freezing and
the wet ground and roadways turning to ice. Although road
temperatures are currently warm much will change between now and
Sunday afternoon so will continue to monitor for icing issues.
As a result of this scenario and model to model and run to run
consistency being good have opted to issue a winter storm watch
for Lancaster, Chesterfield, Fairfield, Kershaw and Newberry
counties. This is for ice accumulations late Saturday evening
through Sunday across that area of one tenth to one quarter
inch. Freezing rain amounts from the watch area through the
central Midlands are expected to be one tenth of an inch or less
with no freezing rain accumulation in the southern Midlands and
CSRA. Will continue to monitor cold air damming strength and
south push of the cold air which could result in expanding the
watch area further south.