griteater
Member
This is from the 06z Euro, but the mid level flow running orthogonal into the Blue Ridge side of the mountains is going to be tremendous here....intense mtn precip
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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Which model is showing that while calculating sleet at the same time. I’m not complaining. I understand the conservative move, why we start out like that. But we have WNC having more models with more measurable snow. Perhaps even coming g into the upstate to Easley - Lyman. That is how our climate is. This notion that CAD will be stronger with a weaker high.
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LovingGulfLows
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1993 Superstorm was way more intense....the pressure was already in the low 970s around the GA/SC border.
BelmontWX79
Member
This is much closer to a classic CAD than in situ.
As is typical, super CADs at 144 "weaken" as we move in because confluence moves out earlier or appears weaker the closer we get. Why? No -NAO. There are exceptions to this, but you can usually count on it.
I think we know what we have now. I'm doubtful of any meaningful changes to the track. It's not going to shift wildly offshore. No more new data ingests are going to save the day.
Northern parts of AL, GA, much of TN, the western half of SC, up through the mountains of NC into the Piedmont/Triad region, and the western half of VA are going to get a significant winter storm. There will be mixing issues for many of those areas. East of there, including the Triangle, and central VA, it will be a burst of snow or sleet, quickly changing to ZR then to rain...which is preferable to me over an ice storm. The drought monitor continues to take a hit, and that is good.
I think we know what we have now. I'm doubtful of any meaningful changes to the track. It's not going to shift wildly offshore. No more new data ingests are going to save the day.
Northern parts of AL, GA, much of TN, the western half of SC, up through the mountains of NC into the Piedmont/Triad region, and the western half of VA are going to get a significant winter storm. There will be mixing issues for many of those areas. East of there, including the Triangle, and central VA, it will be a burst of snow or sleet, quickly changing to ZR then to rain...which is preferable to me over an ice storm. The drought monitor continues to take a hit, and that is good.
accu35
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Was there a snow map?This is from the 06z Euro, but the mid level flow running orthogonal into the Blue Ridge side of the mountains is going to be tremendous here....intense mtn precip
Yes and that storm was as perfectly stacked vertically as a land based cyclone can be..
SnowNiner
Member
I think most of the models are starting to agree that the low is going to dig well and we're getting away from the Miller B scenario into more of a hybrid A/B. That is great great great. The challenge seems to me to be where does it transfer to our SE. We need it on the coast to keep mixing away, and to let our folks in the east in the game later. The whole ramming up I-95 inland is just the worst.
ILMRoss on American made a nice observation about the transfer likely being along the ribbon of low level vorticity that forms off the coast along the wedge front. He noted it below on the Nam 3K. Convective models show it, others are not. His expectation would be I believe the transfer happens on the coast in this area. That would be huge if correct.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Brad p just made an interesting video. He mentioned the gfs and euro ensembles and said 1-4 inches of snow in Charlotte
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iGRXY
Member
GFS:
Euro:
CMC:
ICON:
This is the kuchera totals which factors in mixing issues and ratios from the most recent runs. even shaving off amounts due to sleet and ice and it's still more than 1-2" and 2-4" for a lot of people.
That’s interesting and it makes a lot of sense as there would be a natural baroclinic zone for the low to move along. This is something to watch in future NAM runs and the HRRR.I think most of the models are starting to agree that the low is going to dig well and we're getting away from the Miller B scenario into more of a hybrid A/B. That is great great great. The challenge seems to me to be where does it transfer to our SE. We need it on the coast to keep mixing away, and to let our folks in the east in the game later. The whole ramming up I-95 inland is just the worst.
ILMRoss on American made a nice observation about the transfer likely being along the ribbon of low level vorticity that forms off the coast along the wedge front. He noted it below on the Nam 3K. Convective models show it, others are not. His expectation would be I believe the transfer happens on the coast in this area. That would be huge if correct.
The temps the GFS shows the night after would be the coldest since Jan 2018 
Call map from a good poster ~ Eyewall
At the other place. Looks pretty good
At the other place. Looks pretty good
Showmeyourtds
Member
The energy looked great thru hrs 60 -72...then the low cuts up 85 around the KIA plant exit drawing the warm air up. I don't have access to surface precip maps for the UKMET, but I'm guessing that adjustment @78 allows more warm air to advect north.
iGRXY
Member
This is a really good map and I think matches up well with what we're seeing.
NCSNOW
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We need the transfer off/on the coast near Savannah. Triad would jackpot snow, even with this putrid coastal plain track, if the Low would stack. Cant have a double barrell where the 850 lp is to your west and the 500mb is to your east and avoid mixing issues from waa up top.
The transfer sooner is whats needed and any farther east track would help in that regard.
WORD OF CAUTION: Those banking on backside wrap around be carefull. I checked the soundings off gfs Op after MBY gets on backside and it drys up in the dendrite growth area where flakes are made. Stuck with wind wept drizzle/snizzle with temps at 24 degrees IMBY.
The GFs sounding 12z Pack/Ollie northern Randolph was basically 3-4 hours snow, 3-4 hours sleet, 3 hours freezing rain and 6 hours of freezing drizzle on the back side wraparound as the moisture in the dendrite growth area had dried up
The transfer sooner is whats needed and any farther east track would help in that regard.
WORD OF CAUTION: Those banking on backside wrap around be carefull. I checked the soundings off gfs Op after MBY gets on backside and it drys up in the dendrite growth area where flakes are made. Stuck with wind wept drizzle/snizzle with temps at 24 degrees IMBY.
The GFs sounding 12z Pack/Ollie northern Randolph was basically 3-4 hours snow, 3-4 hours sleet, 3 hours freezing rain and 6 hours of freezing drizzle on the back side wraparound as the moisture in the dendrite growth area had dried up
I just realized where I had seen something like that before. This is exactly what happened with the January 1996 storm. I remember reading it in a storm summary once. Even 12-18 hours before the storm started in the Carolinas, guidance was wanting to form the coastal on the coast which would have meant much less wintry precip for Central NC. Instead it formed a bit further out along a vorticity ribbon like that and it allowed much colder air to be locked in for the duration of the storm. The whole corridor from CLT metro up to the Triangle had a massive sleet storm during that with temperatures in the low 20s… some areas had as much as 4-6 inches of sleetI think most of the models are starting to agree that the low is going to dig well and we're getting away from the Miller B scenario into more of a hybrid A/B. That is great great great. The challenge seems to me to be where does it transfer to our SE. We need it on the coast to keep mixing away, and to let our folks in the east in the game later. The whole ramming up I-95 inland is just the worst.
ILMRoss on American made a nice observation about the transfer likely being along the ribbon of low level vorticity that forms off the coast along the wedge front. He noted it below on the Nam 3K. Convective models show it, others are not. His expectation would be I believe the transfer happens on the coast in this area. That would be huge if correct.
That leads me to believe that our area will be spared from any rain mixing hence the cold temps which would signify snow/IP/ZR on the ground. (probably not a good thing though) I think we see it all here. What I a most concerned and hopeful about is that we see a sig amount of ZR on top of snow both on the front and backend. Travel is going to be treacherous, to say the least. Further east is where the bigger question remains. If that SL transfers further south towards Savannah, it's most likely going to keep the Trianagle all frozen and up snow/ice totals as well.
iGRXY
Member
Another thing to take into account is I would expect this to come in faster by a few hours. Just like last week the storm was faster than models anticipated. That is a normal thing. As is the FGEN banding out ahead. That's something to take into account.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Great post here. I'll add to remember climo. Regardless of our setup, track adjustments, or last minute tricks, climo says 90% of the time that last paragraph is what is going to happen with these type systems. Mtns and higher peidmont areas will get a big dog snow, adjacent areas are going to mix, and areas outside that are going to have a lot of ice and slop. We're all pulling for our backyards and some of us will see last minute adjustments that will make a big difference one way or another but climo should tell us a lot.