Ron Burgundy
Member
Backside SN rates looking stout as well. That’s the part I’m most curious about. So hard to trust a backside def band holding together into our area but when they do - look out.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
GFS always does, she will fold to the Euro like the NAM did. That’s the reason most Mets favor the E over Goofy.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
The CMC is much more NW with low placement inland in NC and VA then any other model, can't believe in that too much especially with GFS backing off of such a NW placement.
CMC has RDU at 43F by 7pm Sunday LOL
Ron Burgundy
Member
Wow - that’s a 4” to 5” mean over city of ATL (ITP)!
Ends up pushing into south central PA; switching DC up to Boston over to rain. We saw outputs like this yesterday. I guess it's a possible outcome at this point.This sucks
Personally I don’t. Like I posted earlier, in most Miller As, the are of significant ice build up is in a band so much more narrow than what these ZR maps show. Right now looking at the soundings I would expect southern Mecklenburg over to Union County to get a decent front end thump of snow, a quick couple inches or so with a FGEN band, and then go over to a sleet/snow mix then mostly sleet with some ZR at times. Like I said the sleet could really be heavy perhaps being similar to February 2014 when this area saw 2-3” of sleet after the initial snow. After this we will see if any of the backside deform band swings through
Note "conservative"
WXinCanton
Member
12Z Ukmet
Indeed, though I feel pretty confident a surface low track west of I-95 has a very low chance of happening. I can’t think of a single instance of that ever happening in the face of CAD.This sucks
That’s a difference of what… 450 miles or so in 24 hours, 2 runs? Obviously there is a clear trend here. Both operationals and ensembles are beginning to cluster now to a solution on the track. Between I-95 and the coastline… I think it will ultimately end up closer to the coast line than 9512z canadian yesterday vs today. dont get caught up in specifics just have to hope these trends continue.
njbarrineau
Member
I think so too. I love CJ, but if you have lived in the Upstate, you know he has been burned by climo quite a few times. I have noticed he has started big and cut back and it is not received well by the general public. Especially now that he is chief meteorologist, I think he is starting low and will increase totals.
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ukie pretty far inland with the lp.
Snowflowxxl
Member
UKMET was warmer for ATL
ATLwxfan
Member
Canadian snow totals are aggressive for north GA. Well over a foot in far northeast counties.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
gotta love how we track these storms 160hrs+ out and every time we get within 3 days and still have no clue.
GEFS members: 
blueheronNC
Member
At what point is this not really a CAD situation dictating LP track though? The high is weak and moving out. LP is too strong for in situ except right up against the mountains.
1993 superstorm had a bit of a nosing HP preceding it too which it overcame like a knife through butter as the low tracked right up through the Triangle.
1993 superstorm had a bit of a nosing HP preceding it too which it overcame like a knife through butter as the low tracked right up through the Triangle.
iGRXY
Member
Odds are they are moving the high out too fast. Globals erode CAD much faster than reality.