Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Chazwin]

For areas further west such as Charlotte and the 85 corridor, are we looking at staying below freezing for the duration of the event? If so then we likely have a huge ice storm on our hands.

I’m leaning towards us staying below freezing for the duration, possibly the upper 20s, but from what I’m seeing on these soundings, I really think that after that front end thump of snow, we’re gonna see sleet dominate with some ZR until whatever snow the backside brings. I wouldn’t be at all suprised at all if the corridor from eastern CLT metro up to the west side of the triangle has a solid concrete glacier on the ground by Sunday evening

 

[Stephenb888]

View attachment 104984

Lol a dusting to an inch in Anderson ok. Amazing how all the ingredients are in place and this is all we have to show for it.

 

[ajr]

Making plans to head to Beech/Avery county to chase -- where are people heading to chase?

 

[DopplerWx]

gfs ens showing more members clustered se of the op.

 

[Metwannabe]

Thru 72 I'd say once again the ensembles overall have a colder look, with more frozen precip (edit: colder than the Op still not the best track for central NC)

 

[wxdaniel]

Lol a dusting to an inch in Anderson ok

His projection is pretty good at this time. Climate suggests this.


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[iGRXY]

View attachment 104984

That actually is really bold for first call maps from any mets. They usually start low and work up.

 

[weather_freak]

Making plans to head to Beech/Avery county to chase -- where are people heading to chase?

Family is heading to Pigeon Forge, but with things all over the place we would probably do just as good staying in North/Central Alabama. PF looks to be in the warm slot on most models.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

The GFS still seems to be struggling with the CAD. When FFC is even saying that it's more likely a stronger CAD is possible in their AFD then it is either evident that it is underdoing the CAD or we're in for a really cold rain. I lean more toward the GFS failing at CAD. More important to focus on its track I'd say.

LP track was further S & E, which may have been a slight nod to the NAM, but it did appear to struggle with the CAD

 

[Stephenb888]

His projection is pretty good at this time. Climate suggests this.


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I know but I just thought this was “one of strongest CAD we’ve seen in a while” and now it doesn’t look like it.

 

[TigerSnow]

I’m leaning towards us staying below freezing for the duration, possibly the upper 20s, but from what I’m seeing on these soundings, I really think that after that front end thump of snow, we’re gonna see sleet dominate with some ZR until whatever snow the backside brings. I wouldn’t be at all suprised at all if the corridor from eastern CLT metro up to the west side of the triangle has a solid concrete glacier on the ground by Sunday evening

I am just north of CLT in Huntersville. Looks to be a lot of IP or ZR around me based on the track and some soundings. Concerned for sure about losing power. If we can get that low to track a little further south or east it might change us to some more snow.

 

[iGRXY]

Thru 72 I'd say once again the ensembles overall have a colder look, with more frozen precip (edit: colder than the Op still not the best track for central NC)

Ensembles continue to show a lot more snow in the upstate and piedmont for the duration of the event with more ice down around the midlands

 

[wxdaniel]

That actually is really bold for first call maps from any mets. They usually start low and work up.

I disagree. Climatology speaking he is on point.


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[SNOWMANN]

If someone in this area can find a way to stay all or mostly snow there’s going to be some big boy totals. Keep seeing lollipops in this area. NAM was concerning with temp profiles but from what I can remember in the past it’s a little amp happy towards the end of its range. View attachment 104985

Hush!!!! Lol hopefully the nam trends continue and can keep that warm nose at bay. We might make a run for it. I'm sweating bullets.

 

[malak05]

The Ensembles Mean is going to be a huge jump for Wintery precp back SW and W into GA/AL

 

[ryan1234]

The GFS still seems to be struggling with the CAD. When FFC is even saying that it's more likely a stronger CAD is possible in their AFD then it is either evident that it is underdoing the CAD or we're in for a really cold rain. I lean more toward the GFS failing at CAD. More important to focus on its track I'd say.

I honestly don't put a lot of stock into what the GFS says in this range. Especially, when it comes to the clown maps and soundings. They are always way overhyped and hardly ever come to fruition. Can't count on both hands how often they are wrong than right. I also have a hard time believing that Nashville ends up with a foot of snow while some of the sweet spots in NC end up with half that, especially during a CAD event like this. I am much more into short-range modeling at this juncture. Just my two cents though.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Thru 72 I'd say once again the ensembles overall have a colder look, with more frozen precip (edit: colder than the Op still not the best track for central NC)

I was burned by the GEFS back in Jan 2016 so I don't know....most of those panels look amazing for my backyard, but I'm always going to be suspect of GFS ensemble members.

 

[iGRXY]

I disagree. Climatology speaking he is on point.


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Models are showing a lot more than that and that is with no FGEN. That is low compared to what we have seen. Climo also says colder temps with CAD and longer duration. I am definitely willing to bet we see this likely increase. Especially in the mountains.

 

[ForsythSnow]

GEFS mean seems to be far better for everyone so far except for Columbia. The 6+ swath is further SW slightly which means more strong CAD members.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Anybody order some FGEN???