TigerSnow
Member
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
Putting down more SN to the west in MS and northern AL.
BHS1975
Member
Hmm CAD coming in stronger on models as we come closer to go time .. we’re have I seen this before
GFS is just the slightest bit colder 7am Sunday for CAD regions
Yeah, I tend to honestly expect IP to be the dominant P-type across Central NC with this storm at this point.
As a side note, the 12z ICON’s track is pretty beautiful, especially for the western Piedmont and foothills. Definitely rooting for that (or even further east, but beggars can’t be choosers haha).
I definitely think that the convection-based models will have a better handle on the 850s. I am buying the NAM/RGEM camp with less snow further east at this point. It further will be interesting to see the 3k models come into range.
Huffman's thoughts as of now haven't changed
Cadi40
Member
For areas further west such as Charlotte and the 85 corridor, are we looking at staying below freezing for the duration of the event? If so then we likely have a huge ice storm on our hands.
Looks like it's sitting right along the 0c 850 line. Either going to rip fatties or face stinging sleet
cyclogent
Member
that is one long trail of heavy snow. you can tell where the trough axis is as well, roughly the I-65 corridor
sounding for clt, ip but so close to a snow sounding it hurts.
SnowNiner
Member
Well, was enthused about the ticking further south and east on the models today, love the NAM low location and keeping the low pressure closer to the gulf, digging. Pretty classic looking. The thermal profiles suck though with nothing but sleet/freezing rain through most of the Carolinas. Hope that's wrong with snow more on the northern edge.
TigerSnow
Member
Looks like the typical I-85 special right there. We should know that's how most storms around here go. A few miles up the road and its snow.
If someone in this area can find a way to stay all or mostly snow there’s going to be some big boy totals. Keep seeing lollipops in this area. NAM was concerning with temp profiles but from what I can remember in the past it’s a little amp happy towards the end of its range. 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS still seems to be struggling with the CAD. When FFC is even saying that it's more likely a stronger CAD is possible in their AFD then it is either evident that it is underdoing the CAD or we're in for a really cold rain. I lean more toward the GFS failing at CAD. More important to focus on its track I'd say.