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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

NAM 3km still wants to put down .4 of freezing rain from 11-2 … let’s see how that works out .. if that did happen on top of all of this .. good luck Charlie
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
NAM 3km still wants to put down .4 of freezing rain from 11-2 … let’s see how that works out .. if that did happen on top of all of this .. good luck Charlie
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It's actually upped total zr here to .36, crazy, doubt that happens but would be a forecast bust if it did. That's warning criteria, again I doubt it but a nod to CAD holding on a little longer
 
Two things I’m noticing right now

1. It really is looking like to me that CLT metro and north might be able to avoid a major ice accrual. This sleet is holding strong as they column remains below freezing from 925mb down. By the time soundings are supportive of ZR, the dry slot punches in and precip becomes more scattered light or freezing drizzle..

2. Looking at water vapor and radar, it really seems that the ULL is moving further south than modeled and hasn’t cut NE yet. There’s an old saying that “an Upper low is a weatherman’s woe”. They are hard to predict and we’ve seen some do some crazy things compared to forecast over the years.
 
Chazwin said:
Two things I’m noticing right now

1. It really is looking like to me that CLT metro and north might be able to avoid a major ice accrual. This sleet is holding strong as they column remains below freezing from 925mb down. By the time soundings are supportive of ZR, the dry slot punches in and precip becomes more scattered light or freezing drizzle..

2. Looking at water vapor and radar, it really seems that the ULL is moving further south than modeled and hasn’t cut NE yet. There’s an old saying that “an Upper low is a weatherman’s woe”. They are hard to predict and we’ve seen some do some crazy things compared to forecast over the years.
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Doesn’t freezing drizzle accumulate faster?
 
It's been primarily sleet here SE of Uptown Charlotte after about an hour of light snow in the beginning. Luckily we've had very little freezing rain so far, so it's been better than expected so far. Probably over two inches of sleet now.
 
After 3-4" of awesomeness we've had a pile of sleet and zr. Had a little break now sleeping again. Temp 29..backside action to commence.
Neighbor had a big tree blow over right behind my shop..luckily only damage was fence.
 
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