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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

One thing for CLT metro and then up the I-85 corridor to keep an eye on is the path of the upper low. The Euro and Icon both want to move it just south of I-20 from ATL to CAE and then turn it NE from there… this is a great track to put down some heavy snow on the back side of the storm for those areas… February 2004 had a similar track with the upper low
 
NAM this AM quite a bit colder but that warm nose gives major ice to northeast GA. Will be interesting to see where we go now that there system is ashore.

I am a bit surprised that general modeling consensus has the thermals so warm even with a deeper track of the low but what do I know?


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6z euro is right at 7-8 inches of snow here: I'll assume theres alot of sleet that gets thrown in there( so its a pretty safe bet for 4-5 inches of concrete). Then this is followed by .70 of freezing Rain. Get a whiff of backside snow to stick on top of all the freezing rain coated limbs. Then prob 20-28 mph gust as she rolls away off to the NE. Couple all that with probably not spending 1-3 hours at or above freezing till like the middle/end of next week.
 
Chazwin said:
One thing for CLT metro and then up the I-85 corridor to keep an eye on is the path of the upper low. The Euro and Icon both want to move it just south of I-20 from ATL to CAE and then turn it NE from there… this is a great track to put down some heavy snow on the back side of the storm for those areas… February 2004 had a similar track with the upper low
Click to expand...

The tail end of the NAM was not very impressive in terms of back end snow. The energy rapidly transferred…maybe some nice flakes for pictures though.


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6z RGEM and 6z Nam
500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png
 
NCSNOW said:
6z euro is right at 7-8 inches of snow here: I'll assume theres alot of sleet that gets thrown in there( so its a pretty safe bet for 4-5 inches of concrete). Then this is followed by .70 of freezing Rain. Get a whiff of backside snow to stick on top of all the freezing rain coated limbs. Then prob 20-28 mph gust as she rolls away off to the NE. Couple all that with probably not spending 1-3 hours at or above freezing till like the middle/end of next week.
Click to expand...
Yea man this one is gonna be fun. Safely using kuchera method is still a major for a lot of us coupled with big winds...what a day this will be if the euro is correct. It may be wrong but you can't argue the consistency which is believable.
 
ATLwxfan said:
The tail end of the NAM was not very impressive in terms of back end snow. The energy rapidly transferred…maybe some nice flakes for pictures though.


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Click to expand...
I think the best chance for significant backside snow with this is gonna be greater for the Carolinas than back into GA… now that this is trended more to a Hybrid Miller A/B, once the transfer occurs it should take on more the look of a Miller A with a pronounced comma head and strong deform band moving with the upper level energy… Upstate SC and western/central NC up into VA would be favored with that
 
Chazwin said:
I think the best chance for significant backside snow with this is gonna be greater for the Carolinas than back into GA… now that this is trended more to a Hybrid Miller A/B, once the transfer occurs it should take on more the look of a Miller A with a pronounced comma head and strong deform band moving with the upper level energy… Upstate SC and western/central NC up into VA would be favored with that
Click to expand...

I’d agree. If you’re in GA you’re almost hoping this trends warmer to avoid ice on the front end.


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Looking at 6z hr 84 framefrom GFS,NAM,RDPS. The GFS is the fastest further east, Nam slowest. RDPS and GFS same strength at 4 contours verse 2 for the NAM. The RDPS is further south.

I cant see 500mb 6z euro op map at 84 to compare.

These things usually will get in here quicker than modeled as well as exit quicker. Keep that in your grey matter.
 
DarkKnight said:
Dang so close for North Miss/Alabama. Needs this thing to trend a little colder and south. I bet surface temps are really close on the surface maps.
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Im wondering wether models still aren't grasping the dense cold air well. Cause the apps run all the way to northeast of Birmingham. With CAD and strong ones at that. It should reach us. I'm hesitant on believing that atleast a good chunk of northern of Northeast quadrant of the state doesn't recieve a decent bit of snow
 
Todays 12z will tell us alot: The ens should really tighten up and the track become in better agreement. Should be able to leave the ens behind
 
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