Time to buy a generator... Geez hope them south trends continue.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Who’s got EPS?
The impacts will be done by the time anyone switches to rain
FGEN band 
I'm right on the 0 line will be sweating bullets the whole storm lol
NAM is lights outs in northeast Georgia. Cad signature much deeper than 0z
GFS looked improved to me
GFS has the central midlands around 40-44F during height of the precipitation. Hoping in it's accuracy. Not holding my breath though. Models looking slightly warmer over all; maybe we can luck out as rain.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I think people may be underestimating the backside of this system. Reminds me of December 18 so much
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GFS definitely is faster
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, the transfer away from the primary low happened faster too which allowed for more winter weather on the southern side. 6z looked like there wasn’t as much of a cold push with weaker high pressure, so overal there were some pros and cons but a net result that was better for the SE than the previous run. Hopefully the 0z was a bit of a blip and we can get more favorable trends today.
Last edited:
packfan98
Moderator
Less cold push in the CAD regions on the GEFS now too.
Oconeexman
Member
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Lots of fine tuning to come today and tomorrow. Mesoscale models coming into range later will be paramount on depicting thermal profiles and gradient lines where 15 miles will separate heavy snow to a dangerous mix to rain. And even that's gonna bounce around tunnel go time. Low placement and transfer is starting to become clearer at least. Great breakdown over night by everyone and thank you!
btw WPC did this tonight:
"
The WPC medium range forecast was based on an initial blend of the
12/18Z deterministic guidance favoring the ECMWF somewhat, adding
the CMC ensemble mean by day 4 with its favorable low position in
the East and increasing the proportion of the EC ensemble mean for
the latter part of the period as well, to help temper minor
variations in model guidance."
"
The WPC medium range forecast was based on an initial blend of the
12/18Z deterministic guidance favoring the ECMWF somewhat, adding
the CMC ensemble mean by day 4 with its favorable low position in
the East and increasing the proportion of the EC ensemble mean for
the latter part of the period as well, to help temper minor
variations in model guidance."
Really not trying to kill a mood, but it's hard to ignore this on the GEFS.
Everything except the icon has trended warmer over the last 6 hours.
Yup that is getting concerning for sure being it’s still a LONG ways to go, there can and will be many changes coming! The question is “will they be good or bad changes”?
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Easy to see the reason why here. High is more NE, makes the difference of a few degrees everywhere. So even if it's faster, we still need for that HP to remain favorable.