• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2023

The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks


81CF03A5-9C9C-4594-9F33-B40B60619878.png

2DF14BA6-4928-4730-B17B-E79B2A9532EA.png
 
As crappy as this winter has been for many folks here, just remember that NYC, PHL, & DC all have still yet to see measurable snow this winter, which is nearing unprecedented territory for these locales.

It’s a good feeling going into late January knowing that parts of Alabama, Georgia, & now North Carolina have all seen more snow than much of the NE US megalopolis this winter ?
 
Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track or and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
Click to expand...
Would love to see the 12z EURO throw us some agreement love today!
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track or and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
Click to expand...
Usually for the CAD regions of Upstate and E NC this is our best chance to get winter storms every winter. Atleast with CAD storms you have the cold already locked in when a system moves through. Someone our best winter storms have been CAD storms

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
We hug. Everyone likes an underdog!

gem-ens_T2ma_nhem_63.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks


View attachment 130190

View attachment 130191
Click to expand...
I suppose from an ever-hopeful weenie view, at least we're going to get our source region rather frigid. While it's likely that the SE will be warm on average, perhaps we could get lucky with a couple of well-timed CAD events or strong cutters that drive in some artic air briefly for a following system to interact with?

Question. How confident should we be that the SSWE modeled for late January/early February is going to verify? And, what should we look for in modeling going forward to indicate that the modeled SSWE is propagating down and causing a pattern change, and where?

Thanks.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I suppose from an ever-hopeful weenie view, at least we're going to get our source region rather frigid. While it's likely that the SE will be warm on average, perhaps we could get lucky with a couple of well-timed CAD events or strong cutters that drive in some artic air briefly for a following system to interact with?

Question. How confident should we be that the SSWE modeled for late January/early February is going to verify? And, what should we look for in modeling going forward to indicate that the modeled SSWE is propagating down and causing a pattern change, and where?

Thanks.
Click to expand...
0% confidence. Sswe are modeled about as often as 360hr snow storms that never pan out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks


View attachment 130190

View attachment 130191
Click to expand...

A couple caveats with this, for one thing if the trough off Atlantic Canada digs more, could end up seeing some CAD days, which would keep things cooler in cad favored areas of the Carolinas

The other thing is that I mentioned yesterday is that there will at least be cold air in the vicinity (in southern Canada and the conus). If this circulation pattern slips up (which it probably will from time to time), you have a much better chance to score something in this pattern than the one we’ve had the last few weeks (although that isn’t saying a whole lot).

How tall the SE US ridge is and the downstream trough over Atlantic Canada will have a big role in determining whether we see severe weather or CAD (sometimes both happen) in general. Could be lots of variability in parts of the Carolinas going forward
 
Webberweather53 said:
A couple caveats with this, for one thing if the trough off Atlantic Canada digs more, could end up seeing some CAD days, which would keep things cooler in cad favored areas of the Carolinas

The other thing is that I mentioned yesterday is that there will at least be cold air in the vicinity (in southern Canada and the conus). If this circulation pattern slips up (which it probably will from time to time), you have a much better chance to score something in this pattern than the one we’ve had the last few weeks (although that isn’t saying a whole lot).
Click to expand...
Are you having second thoughts about the incoming torch, and no wintry weather, that you have continually posted about for weeks? That can't be right....
 
Webberweather53 said:
A couple caveats with this, for one thing if the trough off Atlantic Canada digs more, could end up seeing some CAD days, which would keep things cooler in cad favored areas of the Carolinas

The other thing is that I mentioned yesterday is that there will at least be cold air in the vicinity (in southern Canada and the conus). If this circulation pattern slips up (which it probably will from time to time), you have a much better chance to score something in this pattern than the one we’ve had the last few weeks (although that isn’t saying a whole lot).

How tall the SE US ridge is and the downstream trough over Atlantic Canada will have a big role in determining whether we see severe weather or CAD (sometimes both happen) in general. Could be lots of variability in parts of the Carolinas going forward
Click to expand...
Are you still in the East or back west? Looks like the SW might get some snow this coming week.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Are you having second thoughts about the incoming torch, and no wintry weather, that you have continually posted about for weeks? That can't be right....
Click to expand...

It looks warm in general especially in early-Mid February as the SE us ridge flexes, but I thought it would be pertinent to mention some caveats as we enter this pattern late in January
 
NoSnowATL said:
Are you still in the East or back west? Looks like the SW might get some snow this coming week.
Click to expand...

Yep, this is a good pattern for us as we get into late this coming weekend and early next week. For snow events here, usually want a ridge just offshore the Pacific NW and British Columbia, with an upper low diving down the west coast into southern AZ and far northern Mexico. We tend to see these sort of things show up when the Pacific Jet Stream goes from an extended El Niño like state, back to a more typical retracted look with troughing near or west of the Aleutians.






The EPS and GEFS look pretty good down here & I’m really trying to not get sucked in ?

C449FE82-14EF-4EAA-965E-BA1CE0DA006F.png


E40D8E54-50F8-46FA-8ADF-10CD13715C53.png
 
Yeah if you’re in the CAD favorable areas of NeGA, upstate SC, and piedmont NC this isn’t the worst pattern in the world. You can bet your bottom dollar we are going to CAD the hell out of the pattern regardless. You build in a nice 50/50 and you quickly get a great setup for winter weather in the western Carolinas. Problem is it will greatly favor sleet and ZR with standard Miller B’s. Overrunning could really be the best case scenario where we get some nice forcing on the front end to drive front end snows as well. Everywhere else in the southeast outside of the far western areas, good luck.
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah if you’re in the CAD favorable areas of NeGA, upstate SC, and piedmont NC this isn’t the worst pattern in the world. You can bet your bottom dollar we are going to CAD the hell out of the pattern regardless. You build in a nice 50/50 and you quickly get a great setup for winter weather in the western Carolinas. Problem is it will greatly favor sleet and ZR with standard Miller B’s. Overrunning could really be the best case scenario where we get some nice forcing on the front end to drive front end snows as well. Everywhere else in the southeast outside of the far western areas, good luck.
Click to expand...
Yes I've been saying this for awhile, this is a very good pattern to end up with an Ice Storm across CAD areas. And as we all know an ice storm is way overdue. I wouldn't be surprised to see one in the coming weeks.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Buckethead was reporting 11” at Wolf Laurel 9hours ago and some 7” Beech reports already at midnight last night. Leaving in 45 mins. Hope the AWD can manage ?
Click to expand...
His latest report is about 15" with 24" drifts! Knoxville area with an impressive radar this morning. I really need to move to the other side of the hills, this area is awful.
 
Trend is the ball has to be punted to atleast post Jan 23rd for any shot at frozen. Trough is gonna dig in SW and its cutter city and no help with any NE confluence. Things can change again,but as of right now next 10 days,minus this weekend are meh.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top