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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Here's the 0z Canadian and the 0z Euro Op: Notice the HP placement and strength in the nE as well as all other factors affecting the confluence up there. Ironically both have a great storm track for us. But easy to see from 7 days out how fickle a thread the needle situation this is for us to luck up an lasso one in.

What you want to see: 0z Canadian

prateptype-met.na.png


A trend to what you don't want to see: 0z Euro

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met.na.png


Fruitless to even bother using the GFS at this point:
 
Euro has like 5 LPs way up in NE Canada fumbling up the flow. Not so much the 9mb difference in HP strength

sfcmslp.nh.png
 
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Even though our system of interest is still 8 days away, the table setter 50/50 low, or lack thereof is coming into the days 4-5 away period today and tomorrow. For areas outside of the mountains, I think it's safe to say we'll know by 12Z tomorrow if we can reel back in a potent 50/50 so we're not watching a cold rain with an otherwise gorgeous UL low crawling through the SE.
 
The EPS had one good run for this system (yesterday's 12z). That's why even w/ a large ensemble, model consistency is important, as well as support from multiple model suites, which this storm hasn't had yet.

The pattern & model support just hasn't been there for a big snow outside of the mountains. I took a lot of flack from certain posters here the past few days for taking this stance early on, but it's even clearer today that we're headed in this direction (not surprised).
Webberweather53 said:
As @Myfrotho704_ & I have been saying for a few days, the pattern + analogs generally can support a mountains & foothills paste bomb, which is what the GEFS is hinting at.

Outside of that, I'd be pretty skeptical for now.
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Once again, there really isn't any real support for a decent snow event outside the mountains here. Sure, that could certainly change, but we've yet to see the needle move on that at all in general the past several days. It's not saying much, but ice is honestly more likely than snow in the piedmont here.

If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is.

Here, we can see yet again the chances of a legit snow event outside the mountains is <10% on virtually all ensembles & has been for the most part the last few days, save one or two runs from the EPS or GEFS.

Multi-run multi-model consensus > individual operational model runs & singular ensemble runs.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_1-3719200.png


cmc-ensemble-all-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_1-3719200.png


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_1-3719200.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS had one good run for this system (yesterday's 12z). That's why even w/ a large ensemble, model consistency is important, as well as support from multiple model suites, which this storm hasn't had yet.

The pattern & model support just hasn't been there for a big snow outside of the mountains. I took a lot of flack from certain posters here the past few days for taking this stance early on, but it's even clearer today that we're headed in this direction (not surprised).



Once again, there really isn't any real support for a decent snow event outside the mountains here. Sure, that could certainly change, but we've yet to see the needle move on that at all in general the past several days. It's not saying much, but ice is honestly more likely than snow in the piedmont here.

If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is.

Here, we can see yet again the chances of a legit snow event outside the mountains is <10% on virtually all ensembles & has been for the most part the last few days, save one or two runs from the EPS or GEFS.

Multi-run multi-model consensus > individual operational model runs & singular ensemble runs.

View attachment 129521


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View attachment 129523
Click to expand...
Rooting for good trends today, would love this to be a pure snow for the mountains, if there’s mixed precip more then 50% of the duration the trip is canceled. Lol
 
Almost always need a solidly cold airmass in place for a widespread SE winter storm. It's why I personally always want to see the cold likely in place first, with the possibility of a storm. Because 9 times out of 10 (maybe 49 times out of 50), when you have the storm likely with the only possibility of cold air, you get a nice cold rain for most of us.

Anyway, we still have a couple of minutes later on this month before the pattern goes to pot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS had one good run for this system (yesterday's 12z). That's why even w/ a large ensemble, model consistency is important, as well as support from multiple model suites, which this storm hasn't had yet.

The pattern & model support just hasn't been there for a big snow outside of the mountains. I took a lot of flack from certain posters here the past few days for taking this stance early on, but it's even clearer today that we're headed in this direction (not surprised).



Once again, there really isn't any real support for a decent snow event outside the mountains here. Sure, that could certainly change, but we've yet to see the needle move on that at all in general the past several days. It's not saying much, but ice is honestly more likely than snow in the piedmont here.

If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is.

Here, we can see yet again the chances of a legit snow event outside the mountains is <10% on virtually all ensembles & has been for the most part the last few days, save one or two runs from the EPS or GEFS.

Multi-run multi-model consensus > individual operational model runs & singular ensemble runs.

View attachment 129521


View attachment 129522


View attachment 129523
Click to expand...



…“If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is”.

This is what I was looking for yesterday. Thanks for clearing that up. An explanation. ?
 
I know a lot of people like the cold and snow, but the last few days were amazing. 60's and sunny?

And my sinuses were grateful for the change, as the dryness from the heat running 24/7 was really starting to get to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
Almost always need a solidly cold airmass in place for a widespread SE winter storm. It's why I personally always want to see the cold likely in place first, with the possibility of a storm. Because 9 times out of 10 (maybe 49 times out of 50), when you have the storm likely with the only possibility of cold air, you get a nice cold rain for most of us.

Anyway, we still have a couple of minutes later on this month before the pattern goes to pot.
Click to expand...
Agree. This storm only has a small window to capture the cold. Obviously been a long shot from the get go. With the pac firehose jet, we've known the only shot we had was to time a shortwave right behind and exiting shortwave so we could catch a transient 50/50 low. Otherwise no way to get the cold we need outside a phased bomb with NS diving in. Credit to Fro for pointing this out since late December.

Im not sold late Jan into first half of February needs to be punted yet. I get the points some are making, they are valid. But most derive from one size fits all background pattern recognitions. Which is not to be discarded by any means. Its just the longer time marches on, the more actual weather reminds you how complex it actually is, espeacilly LR seasonal forecasting.
 
smast16 said:
I know a lot of people like the cold and snow, but the last few days were amazing. 60's and sunny?

And my sinuses were grateful for the change, as the dryness from the heat running 24/7 was really starting to get to me.
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We havent run the heat since last year. It was cold back in 2022. It had to be flipped on last night. Actually had some frost on the ole car this morning
 
NCSNOW said:
Agree. This storm only has a small window to capture the cold. Obviously been a long shot from the get go. With the pac firehose jet, we've known the only shot we had was to time a shortwave right behind and exiting shortwave so we could catch a transient 50/50 low. Otherwise no way to get the cold we need outside a phased bomb with NS diving in. Credit to Fro for pointing this out since late December.

Im not sold late Jan into first half of February needs to be punted yet. I get the points some are making, they are valid. But most derive from one size fits all background pattern recognitions. Which is not to be discarded by any means. Its just the longer time marches on, the more actual weather reminds you how complex it actually is, espeacilly LR seasonal forecasting.
Click to expand...
We've got about a 7-10 day window at the end of January through the first couple days of February before we are punting probably 2-3 weeks down the road. By then you're out of peak climo and quickly entering more spring time patterns and adding just one more obstacle to overcome. We've got to do something here at the end of the month or snow likely isn't happening this year and the best case scenario is a CAD ice/sleet storm.
 
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