Pattern Jammin January 2023

[NickyBGuarantee]

Holy cow..

December 2018 called.. it wants its snow gradient back!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Holy cow..

As wild a run as you’ll ever see for WNC. That’s frameworthy

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC BOONE BONER
Here’s a map to keep my comment in this thread

 

[NCSNOW]

Ill take it an call it a winter

 

[NCSNOW]

This aint 1st bark from cmc. Biggest, no doubt. We should be able to use short range models this weekend and see how table will be setting up next wednesday as far as confluence to our NE. As has been stated, its biggest piece to the puzzle. Jury will be out on this one for a few more days.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC just gave WNC 50” of snow with this 2m temp profile. Literally boom or bust. Can you imagine what that would do to the power grid..

 

[LukeBarrette]

Holy cow..

And I won’t be in Roanoke….

 

[bouncycorn]

Last frame of the 18z MMFS hires.. was about to unload on some folks. Not as far south as the CMC, but further south than the GFS and appeared to be about to phase to the Atlantic coast. Not cold enough at this last frame tho.. Ptype below MSLP.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looks much cooler but sfc response so far is meh

 

[rburrel2]

Not a single member of the GEFS is as far north with the surface low over the plains as the operational... hmmm.

 

[bouncycorn]

Member 12 please

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Very miller B esc trend

 

[bouncycorn]

Very miller B esc trend View attachment 129512

That wedge tho... ?

 

[rburrel2]

GEFS looks like more of an ice signal and less of a snow signal compared to 18z. Seems like we lost some of the cold push, but got better confluence later on and a more ideal high placement, along with a weaker/further south tracking miller B.

 

[rburrel2]

FWIW, the 00z Ukmet looks more like the CMC with our storm placement at 144hrs. 50/50 low is non-existent, but confluence zone/high placement looks pretty good. Definitely better than the 00z GFS. Hard to say how it would shake out though.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Flame on?

 

[griteater]

Tonight's UKMet run is in. Disappointing to see the ICON and UKMet both trend worse with the hardcore 50/50 low. These are trend loops of the last 2 runs of the UKMet when our storm wave is over the Red River of OK/TX. Can see how the weaker 50/50 low / trough allows for higher heights up an down the East Coast, with associated warmer temperatures (1st 2 loops). The weaker 50/50 low configuration we get, the more this wave has to really "go to town" with respect to closing off and bombing out like that CMC run (last loop).

Can also see here on the 1st UKMet loop how the mb strength of the Sfc High over SE Canada isn't as important as the overall height configuration. All else equal, lower heights equals lower temperatures thru the air column. The Sfc high is stronger on tonight's run of the UKMet, and also the high is located a bit farther south....but it's warmer up and down the east coast (as seen on 2nd loop)

 

[BullCityWx]

??

 

[griteater]

Euro looks pretty much just like the UKMet. It’s a beautiful west to east tracking wave in suppressed split flow, but there’s no cold air as the 50/50 configuration is weak. On to the EPS

 

[$alt]

Not even close on the 00z Euro temp wise for anyone involved at any stage of the potential system, including all mountain areas.

#ew