Pattern Jammin January 2023

BullCityWx · Jan 14, 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
ITS SNOWING ?

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

37 degrees in Ashford on the way up. 21 degrees and snowing up here on Tynecastle Hwy at the base of Grandfather

Wild

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

We got ourselves a 2 footer. What an event

Deleted member 609 · Jan 14, 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We got ourselves a 2 footer. What an event View attachment 130212

They got 23.5" more than me. Lucky bastards.

NickyBGuarantee · Jan 14, 2023

Looks like @metwannabe has to start threads more often.. although he has to be the sacrifice that doesn’t receive snow so the rest of us do ?

Oconeexman · Jan 14, 2023

Webberweather53 said:
Meant to post this a while back. Here's the minimum temperature map for SC during this past Christmas's cold wave.

Got to 20°F even down to Hilton Head.

View attachment 130206

Dead on for my area..good job EW!

NickyBGuarantee · Jan 14, 2023

Wen torch? .. nah in all seriousness though this pattern has this potential cold in it if we can get the TPV to squish the SER .. it’s either really warm with severe or CAD/ Cold dry

NickyBGuarantee · Jan 14, 2023

Skip warm phases?

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

Still steady snow up here. It’s just a damn good time. This is what it’s all about

Webberweather53 · Jan 14, 2023

NickyBGuarantee said:
Skip warm phases? View attachment 130214

For all intents and purposes, it almost certainly is not going to matter a whole lot whether RMM decays or not.

There’s going to be a huge uptick in tropical forcing over the eastern hemisphere coupled with La Niña in early to mid February, whether that’s from Kelvin Waves or ENSO-related doesn’t change the outcome downstream; we’re going to have a healthy SE ridge anyway you slice it. We’ve already set that into motion with the big pacific jet retraction this week.

Webberweather53 · Jan 14, 2023

The GEPS finally falls in line behind what the GEFS has been showing for days, with a nice SW US cut off upper low next week

NCSNOW · Jan 14, 2023

SE Ridge is gonna be a migrane no doubt.

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment · Jan 14, 2023

Euro looked promising at 240

Webberweather53 · Jan 14, 2023

The MJO even checks out for next week here in NM. Nearly a 70% chance of below normal temps during phase 2 in DJF. Anomalies are also very significant (< 2.5% chance of occurring at random.)

Iceagewhereartthou · Jan 14, 2023

Oconeexman said:
Dead on for my area..good job EW!

Pretty close. Mt Sassafras was down to -6.

MichaelJ · Jan 14, 2023

Indices this morning were atrocious for us here in the SE as we go forward in time. All 3 ensemble show the AO going positive, NAO neutral, PNA going BIG TIME negative with only the EPO showing any promise. To top that off, the MJO is heading to phase three and trying to get into phase 4.

SENC · Jan 14, 2023

SENC Winter Special..

WAIT, those don't happen until March Madness..

Oconeexman · Jan 14, 2023

Webberweather53 said:
The GEPS finally falls in line behind what the GEFS has been showing for days, with a nice SW US cut off upper low next week

View attachment 130217

SW desert blizzard...bank on it!

KyloG · Jan 14, 2023

I can see from the posts above we think winter is over…but for the good news we can still measure rain. ?

️

Stevo24 · Jan 14, 2023

Well it’s easy to see where this is going. I’ll see you guys next October to see what we’re working with.

Iceagewhereartthou · Jan 14, 2023

Well lots of depressing outlooks right now going forward. I decided to look back at 2011-12 for some comparison. Obviously that season did not have anything comparable to the Dec cold front this year, and probably not the NWFS event from last night, but for the SE as a whole this season has been pretty absent of winter, much like that year. Here are some numbers for GSP

Dec 2011

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Max	Avg	Min
55	42.2	29
63	45.9	32
58	47.3	38
57	48.9	39
56	54.2	53
65	59.6	54
63	57.8	40
52	41.1	32
54	43.1	33
54	44.0	36
47	39.0	32
45	40.8	37
65	51.9	40
66	54.5	44
67	57.7	48
69	59.5	54
58	49.5	38
55	42.4	32
58	45.3	32
55	51.7	43
63	57.0	52
65	62.6	61
64	55.9	47
53	45.4	37
50	43.7	39
55	42.1	33
52	42.5	39
51	41.1	32
55	40.4	27
54	46.3	36
63	47.3	42

Nothing exciting here but not the worst Dec ever.
Here is this past Dec. Really the only difference at all was the 4 day front surrounding Christmas:

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Max	Avg	Min
55	42.5	32
55	44.0	30
58	53.0	49
57	46.3	38
46	42.6	37
50	46.1	43
63	56.4	50
69	60.4	53
58	52.3	48
50	48.5	46
50	48.9	47
56	49.1	46
48	42.9	37
42	40.8	40
48	41.3	37
52	41.6	33
49	40.8	31
49	37.3	27
49	37.0	25
42	38.5	34
48	40.3	36
48	40.9	36
47	30.4	13
27	17.0	7
37	25.1	14
38	27.8	15
48	35.6	28
54	36.8	24
64	47.1	30
59	50.4	33
56	53.0	51

Here was Jan 2012, again, nothing too exciting either way.

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Max	Avg	Min
66	51.9	36
48	38.0	26
36	27.7	21
48	34.4	19
59	44.5	30
65	49.4	35
69	55.6	45
56	53.2	49
52	49.4	46
57	52.8	50
62	54.1	49
57	48.9	33
40	32.7	27
49	35.4	23
51	40.5	32
49	39.3	29
54	50.0	38
54	46.2	37
45	37.3	30
50	44.1	35
54	48.5	43
50	44.0	38
45	39.3	37
63	48.6	44
64	51.6	37
63	55.7	52
65	57.6	42
65	46.9	33
54	42.8	30
61	46.3	31
63	50.6	37

And here's so far this Jan

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Max	Avg	Min
58	52.5	47
71	56.5	48
63	56.4	50
64	59.6	52
63	52.2	42
58	46.3	36
53	45.8	37
50	46.4	43
54	44.2	35
60	44.3	31
58	48.4	35
67	54.8	48
53	46.2	37
43	37.8	33

Literally, the only difference b/w the two is the Dec cold front and the accompanying trace of sleet/snow, with this Jan actually looking a tad warmer. Pretty sobering perspective so far.

iGRXY · Jan 14, 2023

I’m going to laugh when we trend right into a western Carolina ice storm cad special. One hood thing comes from SER, CAD. And you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where these “torches” are going to go

Chazwin · Jan 14, 2023

iGRXY said:
I’m going to laugh when we trend right into a western Carolina ice storm cad special. One hood thing comes from SER, CAD. And you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where these “torches” are going to go

Yeah and you can already see it with the lower heights consistently showing up over the North Atlantic and SE Canada

Snownut · Jan 14, 2023

iGRXY said:
I’m going to laugh when we trend right into a western Carolina ice storm cad special. One hood thing comes from SER, CAD. And you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where these “torches” are going to go

We've seen it over and over. The funny thing is some on here that really knows what they're talking about knows it too Yet they continue to lead one to believe Winter is over. If I was a betting man I'd bet all I have winter is a long way from over.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

Chazwin · Jan 14, 2023

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Well lots of depressing outlooks right now going forward. I decided to look back at 2011-12 for some comparison. Obviously that season did not have anything comparable to the Dec cold front this year, and probably not the NWFS event from last night, but for the SE as a whole this season has been pretty absent of winter, much like that year. Here are some numbers for GSP

Dec 2011

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Max Avg Min
55 42.2 29
63 45.9 32
58 47.3 38
57 48.9 39
56 54.2 53
65 59.6 54
63 57.8 40
52 41.1 32
54 43.1 33
54 44.0 36
47 39.0 32
45 40.8 37
65 51.9 40
66 54.5 44
67 57.7 48
69 59.5 54
58 49.5 38
55 42.4 32
58 45.3 32
55 51.7 43
63 57.0 52
65 62.6 61
64 55.9 47
53 45.4 37
50 43.7 39
55 42.1 33
52 42.5 39
51 41.1 32
55 40.4 27
54 46.3 36
63 47.3 42

Nothing exciting here but not the worst Dec ever.
Here is this past Dec. Really the only difference at all was the 4 day front surrounding Christmas:

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Max Avg Min
55 42.5 32
55 44.0 30
58 53.0 49
57 46.3 38
46 42.6 37
50 46.1 43
63 56.4 50
69 60.4 53
58 52.3 48
50 48.5 46
50 48.9 47
56 49.1 46
48 42.9 37
42 40.8 40
48 41.3 37
52 41.6 33
49 40.8 31
49 37.3 27
49 37.0 25
42 38.5 34
48 40.3 36
48 40.9 36
47 30.4 13
27 17.0 7
37 25.1 14
38 27.8 15
48 35.6 28
54 36.8 24
64 47.1 30
59 50.4 33
56 53.0 51

Here was Jan 2012, again, nothing too exciting either way.

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Max Avg Min
66 51.9 36
48 38.0 26
36 27.7 21
48 34.4 19
59 44.5 30
65 49.4 35
69 55.6 45
56 53.2 49
52 49.4 46
57 52.8 50
62 54.1 49
57 48.9 33
40 32.7 27
49 35.4 23
51 40.5 32
49 39.3 29
54 50.0 38
54 46.2 37
45 37.3 30
50 44.1 35
54 48.5 43
50 44.0 38
45 39.3 37
63 48.6 44
64 51.6 37
63 55.7 52
65 57.6 42
65 46.9 33
54 42.8 30
61 46.3 31
63 50.6 37

And here's so far this Jan

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Max Avg Min
58 52.5 47
71 56.5 48
63 56.4 50
64 59.6 52
63 52.2 42
58 46.3 36
53 45.8 37
50 46.4 43
54 44.2 35
60 44.3 31
58 48.4 35
67 54.8 48
53 46.2 37
43 37.8 33

Literally, the only difference b/w the two is the Dec cold front and the accompanying trace of sleet/snow, with this Jan actually looking a tad warmer. Pretty sobering perspective so far.

I will say the big difference going forward is the lower heights showing over SE Canada and the North Atlantic on the models. That was not there in 2011-12. This along with colder air moving into and building up in Canada opens the door for CAD opportunities

ajr · Jan 14, 2023

Few pics from Beech today. Apologies for the cellphone picture, but I guess it was cold enough that you can see these amazing geometric flakes

LukeBarrette · Jan 14, 2023

I hate it here

griteater · Jan 14, 2023

Chazwin said:
I will say the big difference going forward is the lower heights showing over SE Canada and the North Atlantic on the models. That was not there in 2011-12. This along with colder air moving into and building up in Canada opens the door for CAD opportunities

11-12 was right up there with one of the worst winter patterns of all time. It did manage a couple week period of split flow in mid Feb that yielded a light snow event across parts of Northern NC, and that was it

Webberweather53 · Jan 14, 2023

LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 130227
I hate it here

I’ll take it ! ?

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

It is gnarly up at Beech tonight. Howling winds. Sub zero wind chills. Brutal

Wildboutsnow · Jan 14, 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It is gnarly up at Beech tonight. Howling winds. Sub zero wind chills. Brutal

Perfect time for the hot tub if it's indoors and a liquor drink!
My fam had a house years ago atop Hawksnest. The hot tub was in a glass room. Oh the memories and hangovers........
Have FUN!!

Chazwin · Jan 14, 2023

griteater said:
11-12 was right up there with one of the worst winter patterns of all time. It did manage a couple week period of split flow in mid Feb that yielded a light snow event across parts of Northern NC, and that was it

The thing that I remember most about that winter besides the lack of snowfall was just how absolutely boring things were for 90% of the time. It was mild yes, but nothing absurdly warm… just basically 6-10 degrees above average everyday with no variability. Most of us were in a deep drought so we didn’t have any rain or severe weather to track. Just an absolutely boring period of weather

NoSnowATL · Jan 14, 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

It’s lit up here

4 runs and I’m DONE! Frigid

NoSnowATL · Jan 14, 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s lit up here 4 runs and I’m DONE! FrigidView attachment 130232

Diet Coke?

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

NoSnowATL said:
Diet Coke?

Something like that!

JHS · Jan 14, 2023

Chazwin said:
The thing that I remember most about that winter besides the lack of snowfall was just how absolutely boring things were for 90% of the time. It was mild yes, but nothing absurdly warm… just basically 6-10 degrees above average everyday with no variability. Most of us were in a deep drought so we didn’t have any rain or severe weather to track. Just an absolutely boring period of weather

We had that one outbreak in early March 2012 that included a fairly strong UNWARNED tornado in Charlotte after 2am. We dodged a bullet in that the tornado was not stronger because it hit a high population area in the middle of the night. GSP really messed up that night, in fact I am not sure there was even a severe thunderstorm warning on it. They were paying a little too much attention to weaker storms in the GSP metro.

Jimmy Hypocracy · Jan 14, 2023

The wind chill up on Beech is unbearable. Idk how to get the exact number but you can’t stand very long exposed to it. It’s a painful type of cold

NCSNOW · Jan 14, 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The wind chill up on Beech is unbearable. Idk how to get the exact number but you can’t stand very long exposed to it. It’s a painful type of cold

And your still in the south. Get the best of all worlds up there , all 4 seasons without having to tollerate northerners.

NickyBGuarantee · Jan 15, 2023

Well we’re definitely going to SER but with cold air being so close to us those high pressures will pack a punch. We’re going to get lots of CAD if these looks continue to hold. We will also get lots of quick 70 degree warm ups out of no where once the highs move away and the potential for severe weather. If we can get moisture timed well with CAD we certainly could ice

Pattern Jammin January 2023

GTHC

Deleted member 609

Guest

-NAO/+PNA/-AO

-NAO/+PNA/-AO

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Attachments

im north of 90% of people on here so yeah

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