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Pattern Jammin January 2023

CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Decent ridge over the Rockies behind the s/s wave too

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It’s not as big as us needing the confluence/50-50, but the more it spikes behind our system, the more digging and better chance of marginal ULL driven snow especially if the ULL track is south of I-20 or so, but we need the confluence and that’s the biggest thing right now
 
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All of the hits were for our timeframe to watch fyi.
Looking better
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 129477
All of the hits were for our timeframe to watch fyi.
Looking better
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1673848800-SUTBEyx6YzU.png

These sits are different
 
Latest subseasonal experiment (SubX) week 3-4 forecast. Notice the ridge reappearing north of Hawaii here. That's a red flag that we'll probably see an eventual return of a more canonical La Nina (-PNA) pattern in February.

We may have one more shot or two at scoring a winter storm in the first half of this period though, especially if we can get more ridging over west-northwest Canada to feed cold air into the CONUS. May have to contend w/ the SE ridge more than this coming week, but cold air will be a bit more plentiful on our side of the pond.

MME_zg_500.png


MME_zg_500Prb.png
 
While a SSWE prior to mid-late January (as some were alluding to a few-several days ago) is a total pipe dream, there's certainly legit potential for one at the very end of January &/or early February this winter.

K=1 displacement type warming events that occur in La Ninas are usually less efficient at impacting surface weather especially over N America, but lots of time to sort things out. I wouldn't bank on any significant pattern impacts from any would-be SSWE until late in February or March (if we even see any at all), there's usually a lagged effect of at least 2-3 weeks or so before the surface responds (of course that's on average and every event is different)

Things to lookout for in determining whether any particular SSWE would affect the surface is if these circulation + temperature anomalies propagate into the lower stratosphere (100-150mb), and if we manage to get a precursor -NAO/-AO. I think the chips are stacked against us getting a precursor -NAO/-AO (at least thru early February), but a warmer lower stratosphere would certainly help our cause.

 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest subseasonal experiment (SubX) week 3-4 forecast. Notice the ridge reappearing north of Hawaii here. That's a red flag that we'll probably see an eventual return of a more canonical La Nina (-PNA) pattern in February.

We may have one more shot or two at scoring a winter storm in the first half of this period though, especially if we can get more ridging over west-northwest Canada to feed cold air into the CONUS. May have to contend w/ the SE ridge more than this coming week, but cold air will be a bit more plentiful on our side of the pond.

MME_zg_500.png


MME_zg_500Prb.png
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looks solid for the western SE verbatim that look
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Justin Bieber had a very interesting video this evening about the rest of the winter! ❄️☃️
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Yep he has been saying he is wrong or the models are wrong for the last several days. We shall see who is right the models or the non model hugger. He always is about the pattern.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest subseasonal experiment (SubX) week 3-4 forecast. Notice the ridge reappearing north of Hawaii here. That's a red flag that we'll probably see an eventual return of a more canonical La Nina (-PNA) pattern in February.

We may have one more shot or two at scoring a winter storm in the first half of this period though, especially if we can get more ridging over west-northwest Canada to feed cold air into the CONUS. May have to contend w/ the SE ridge more than this coming week, but cold air will be a bit more plentiful on our side of the pond.

MME_zg_500.png


MME_zg_500Prb.png
Click to expand...

Judah Cohen talked about a stretching of the PV which he thinks is possible late January. He thinks the the predicted orientation of the PV is favorable for cold in the east. You might be alluding to the same thing to my untrained eyes.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Much worse View attachment 129487
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The main difference between this pattern and the snowstorms of 2018/2004 is that in 2018/2004 the SE Canada vortex looked to be a feature of the long wave pattern, and there wasn’t much room for that to budge. The SE Canada vortex in this pattern looks to be a transient synoptic wave caused by the phasing of two s/w’s.

I’m not buying any of the snowy models yet because ensemble support is too lackluster. In addition, models almost always overdo phasing and amplification (especially the Euro).

There’s always lots of volatility in the handling of those waves, so I would expect to see a lack of consistency in the coming days with that 50/50 low. This is our greatest chance for snow all season east of the Apps, but that’s not saying much.
 
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