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Pattern Jammin January 2023

iGRXY said:
To be fair here, you're not going to get some big percentage when you're still 200 hours out. But the one ensemble that is the most reliable is the one with the highest probabilities and that's all we can ask right now.
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I'm glad these maps are not on any of the free sites. I have really never understood the relevance of it and how it factors the OP/ensembles percentage.
 
iGRXY said:
To be fair here, you're not going to get some big percentage when you're still 200 hours out. But the one ensemble that is the most reliable is the one with the highest probabilities and that's all we can ask right now.
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Well, again not to beat a beyond dead horse here, but that's also because the pattern just isn't *that* favorable for a big snowstorm outside the mountains, mainly because we don't have enough cold air on our side of the pond.

We've seen many cases where the chance of 1" of snow/ice was already >30% at this range. It's pretty clear from the ensembles and just pattern recognition over the last several days that if you want to see a big snow, your best bet is to head towards the higher elevations. Rain or ice is more likely (for now) than snow outside the mountains, even w/ an ideal storm track.
 
Comparison here of the GFS and EURO at Day 7.

In addition to the much better 50/50 look off the NE coast, the other thing I'd like to see is for the ridge going up out west behind our storm wave to be more positive tilt like the EURO, compared to the more neutral tilt seen on the GFS. This, along with the farther south confluence zone over the Northeast, helps to have our storm wave over the Southern Plains to dig more to the southeast with positive tilt (EURO), vs. more neutral tilt (GFS). And this of course helps to keep the temperature profile out ahead of the wave colder.

iX0lID8.png
 
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griteater said:
Comparison here of the GFS and EURO at Day 7.

In addition to the much better 50/50 look off the NE coast, the other thing I'd like to see is for the ridge going up out west behind our storm wave to be more positive tilt like the EURO, compared to the more neutral tilt seen on the GFS. This, along with the farther south confluence zone over the Northeast, helps to have our storm wave over the Southern Plains to dig more to the southeast with positive tilt (EURO), vs. more neutral tilt (GFS). This of course helps to keep the temperature profile out ahead of the wave colder.

iX0lID8.png
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Thanks grit, but I always hear "negative tilt" is good or is that off a pivot from the points you referenced?
 
CaryWx said:
Thanks grit, but I always hear "negative tilt" is good or is that off a pivot from the points you referenced?
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For storm strength, negative tilt is good if the trough is bombing out and going negative in the right location....basically just to the south of your location. But our bigger issue in this scenario at the moment is having the cold temperatures in place. A negative tilt too early brings in warmth
 
The trough needs to tilt neg on about a line from Florida , GA up through the converge of NC, TN, GA upwards...or there abouts
 
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Lickdork said:
Go to spruce pine I’ll give you the link to the cabin I did. Might be too hard for your car tho. Have to drive up a dirt road for a mile and some very twisting backroads
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Yeah, it’s FWD it’s gonna be rough already, and with snow. Rough on transmission as well
 
This GFS run not going to do it but .. it’s not far off of where the euro is.. just doesn’t have the same type of 50/50 that euro had which doesn’t allow the high to lock into place longer
 
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