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Pattern Jammin January 2023

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They look extremely similar actually
 
CaryWx said:
Pretty sure the UKMet and euro agreement have led many times
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Honestly the UKIE has caught my attention the last few years. It has surprisingly been IMO the best model. It sniffs things out left and right these days whether it be pattern wise, hurricanes, winter storm potentials. Having the EURO/UKIE/EPS on your side under 200 hours is about as good as you can have it right now. Hell having 1-2" snow means at 200 hours is huge 9/10x outside of the prechirstmas potential frpm this year.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Boy even the models know about that Oconee/Pickens county warm bubble in the upstate. Downslopping and NE cold feed always leave that area in a warm spot that only a true overrunning event can override.
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I've also heard that because of the number of power stations going down the lakes to the Savannah river, they tend to run 3-5 degrees warmer a lot of times. Don't know if it's true, but I wouldn't be surprised.
 
iGRXY said:
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Really nice signal on the EPS
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To have a tenth of an inch mean for Ice, 1" snow means along 85 and 1-2" means down to highway 11 at 200 hours is a big boost to my overall confidence. Have no clue if we score (see the Christmas timeframe as an example of something going wrong), but to me this has legs right now. Now whether those legs are built like Beyoncé or they're built like somebody off of my 600 pound life Idk, but there is legs here lol.
 
Feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but this still definitely looks like a mountains & foothills centric type snow event.

Crazier things have happened though (like aforementioned Mar 2009, but also throw in Feb 15-17 1969, Feb 25-27 2004, Dec 3-4 1971, & Dec 15-18 1930 as a few other examples of cut off upper lows w/ significant CAD that kind of come to mind for me if we literally hit everything exactly right for this system.) Ice seems like a better bet/bigger concern over the piedmont than snow, especially if this 50-50 low remains strong.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Boy even the models know about that Oconee/Pickens county warm bubble in the upstate. Downslopping and NE cold feed always leave that area in a warm spot that only a true overrunning event can override.
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Yeah but the way winters are in the upstate anymore I'd take that 3-5 and call it a winter and be happy. Single digit lows and average snow is about all you can ask.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah but the way winters are in the upstate anymore I'd take that 3-5 and call it a winter and be happy. Single digit lows and average snow is about all you can ask.
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Honestly we are probably in the best position out of anybody on the board except the mountains. We can rely on CAD to get some type of winter weather and cold. We can get it during the worst of patterns. Folks on the western side except for middle Tennessee need a borderline miracle to even sniff a winter weather potential in this day and age. They hit a couple of years ago, but they go a lot of years without even a whiff of winter weather possibilities in places. It could always be worse.
 
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