Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I disagree. If we're going to have a dumpster fire winter, it's nice to have a cool spring to keep the heat away as long as possible!
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
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Iceagewhereartthou
Member
If I were were a betting man this is where my money would go. This has pretty much been the dominant pattern for years now. Maybe we get a few days or week of bona-fide cold (2014, 2015, Jan 18, Dec 22) but it never lasts more than that. The trough in the West or maybe central US with ridge in the East has been the rule of the land. The last sustained cold I can remember was Dec to early Jan 2010-11.
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We hug
Or, another way to look at it is rather than persistence, the SE is overdue for a persistent stretch of wintry weather.
My money is on an initial central CONUS cold that finally spreads east behind a powerful App runner. Then we see if one or more suppressed systems can bring the goods with that persistent SW flow nearby. That said, I'd rather be in Mississippi, Alabama, or Tennessee rather than east of the mountains.
ATLwxfan
Member
Well I did get my preemergent treatment today so I’m ready.
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Wondering if that 10day euro storm is the app runner table setter.
Also not to go all hi res on you but 'Between' is really halfway "between" Monroe and Loganville as the map flies.
Lots of mid-western SE cold-damming events gonna happen with this look, with the deep TPV being so close 
LOL. Yes, last year the mods were like where are you? And like an old Laurel and Hardy skit, I'd say between. ?Wondering if that 10day euro storm is the app runner table setter.
Also not to go all hi res on you but 'Between' is really halfway "between" Monroe and Loganville as the map flies.
And yes, the EURO does hint at it and if somehow that was to verify at day ten, the next disturbance is teed up in the pacific NW it looks to me. Canadian has a similar solution too. The GFS, well it's the GFS beyond 72 hours.
ATLwxfan
Member
Nothing says mid January like the pitter patter of hail on the window sill. 
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Rah NWS is on board, giddy up! Lol
Dropping temperatures with the CAA will lower our overnight lows to
the upper 20s to low/middle 30s. The latest track of the upper-low
(good DPVA over eastern sections of central NC) would favor a
changeover from rain to snow late Fri night and early Sat, roughly
along/east of US-1, over the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
central/southern Coastal Plain. Precipitation type nomograms and
forecast soundings show the thermal profile increasingly favoring
light snow or flurries by this time frame as the thicknesses (1000-
850 mb 1290m line and 850-700 mb 1540m contour) sag as far south and
east as the NC coast. The 12Z ECMWF has come in line with the
GFS/CMC/HREF as well. As a result, we added a chance of rain
changing to snow in this area late Fri night. Amounts are expected
to be light, roughly a trace to a dusting at best given above
freezing ground temperatures.
Dropping temperatures with the CAA will lower our overnight lows to
the upper 20s to low/middle 30s. The latest track of the upper-low
(good DPVA over eastern sections of central NC) would favor a
changeover from rain to snow late Fri night and early Sat, roughly
along/east of US-1, over the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
central/southern Coastal Plain. Precipitation type nomograms and
forecast soundings show the thermal profile increasingly favoring
light snow or flurries by this time frame as the thicknesses (1000-
850 mb 1290m line and 850-700 mb 1540m contour) sag as far south and
east as the NC coast. The 12Z ECMWF has come in line with the
GFS/CMC/HREF as well. As a result, we added a chance of rain
changing to snow in this area late Fri night. Amounts are expected
to be light, roughly a trace to a dusting at best given above
freezing ground temperatures.
I can hear the bells ringing!
CFS is showing a potential as well. Big difference is low position:12z Euro - Only 10 days out!!! Mountain special..... We got time to work on temps east of the mountains.
Slopes gonna look a lot different this weekend ? ?. And man do they need it 
18z NAM continues the trend of rain to snow and upper level low supported precip
12z euro ensembles looked like there was agreement on definitely flakes to a possible dusting
Agreed and even if the SER is flexing a little, that could set the stage for an ice/sleet storm.
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A little 1994ish
Overrunning gradient pattern.
Every man and woman for themselves. Good luck
Every man and woman for themselves. Good luck
Downeastnc
Member
Better than nothing I reckon....
KATL is currently sitting at +11.3F above the new January average thus far with the GFS forecasting below. This has essentially been March for all intense and purpose. Calculating these forecasted, temperatures KATL would be just a shade under +10 for the month, making a solid run at first, if not the second warmest January on record. Also, no lows at or below freezing, I'm sure that would be a first. At least we're getting plenty of rain.
LickWx
Member
Saw some trees inside Raleigh blooming . Thought it was only a UHI thing till I saw a tree in Zebulon blooming. Bradfords in Raleigh are bud heavy too.
Enjoy y'all's false spring fellas.
ATLwxfan
Member
A shot at getting to 32° this weekend. After that it’s smooth sailing through this month. With the potential for a more traditional Nina in February we may be in for a record stretch without a freeze.
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Love that streamer right over my house. Maybe with a more NNW fetch Lookout Mtn will leave us a few flakes.
and that’s exactly what I was thinking…. major ice/sleet across the south and into the Mid-Atlantic while Florida was baking in record heat
Trends for the D10ish system
In the end it's probably rain for must of us but we are really lowering heights in the east and shifting the sfc low track SE. We'd need help from the D7 system to really go bonkers or something currently not modeled to sneak through in the fast northern stream type flow to establish marginal enough cold but it's worth keeping an eye on
Went from rooting for a 50/50 low, to getting my first January lightning shot from this system. SE weather never disappoints 
Velocities look impressive with this line coming through soon.. waiting to see some mping reports for a little more validation
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
2.6 inches from todays event. Now it’s really game time!
buckinbronco
Member
HRRR trying to suck me in…must resisttttt
00z HRRR continues to try and develop stuff over central and eastern NC .. it’s been developing some sort of banding feature over us and don’t really know what’s causing it? Any thoughts from some degreed mets? 
Ya have to like the enhancement over northern Alabama and Georgia late afternoon and evening being depicted by the 00Z HRRR. Probably a little too warm in S. Carolina though.
It wouldn't surprise me one bit if some of these convective cells bring down some gusty winds and a few brief snow squalls especially in the higher elevations where it'll be quite windy.
It wouldn't surprise me one bit if some of these convective cells bring down some gusty winds and a few brief snow squalls especially in the higher elevations where it'll be quite windy.
I'm in a bad geographic spot for NW flow snow showers. Regardless, I'm sitting here wondering if should I have coffee or beer while sitting out on the front porch tomorrow late.
Not saying that this is a repeat, but this set up reminds me very much of this little system from February 2009. Models were picking up on the dynamics, but not the precip output until about 6 hours or so out. This basically fell from about 9pm to 3am overnight and surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s as precip started and just crashed to around freezing very quickly.
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Live from Gatlinburg!! We made it in about an hour and my son puked his guts out about 5 minutes from the place. These roads will definitely make you car sick! Will keep y’all posted!
Flotown
Member
see those returns here in nw bama but history tells me that it will all be in northeast bama ,we barely ever get much out of this unless this setup is a little different