Pattern Jammin January 2023

[BIG FROSTY]

 

[Metwannabe]

This should be a beaut band crawling across the region

 

[packfan98]

Nice deformation line...

 

[BullCityWx]

U know what’s nice?
It’s the euro showing it…

ALL DAY.

Grit mentioning the UKMET looking good helps as well

 

[Mitch West]

Wow.

 

[iGRXY]

Geez this thing is coming to a crawl. Still more frames to go and this is turning into a 48 hour storm.

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[packfan98]

Kuchera for reference. I'd like to cash out now...

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

That is a TEXTBOOK ULL track for snow in the western carolinas

Off-hand, the look reminds me of 03/02/09. That one did the pivot over MBY.

 

[iGRXY]

A bit closer look for folks

 

[BullCityWx]

It goes from almost 20" IMBY to basically nothing in SE wake.

It can stop moving NW

 

[iGRXY]

The upstate and NEGA folks get a 0.25-0.5" of ice with a foot of snow on top that run. Fun stuff to see no doubt.

 

[Billypg70]

Looks like one of those 1980s snow lines

This reminds me of 87 warm prior and warm after but in a thread the needle with perfect timing,
The western Carolinas got a heavy wet snow. Don't remember all the totals but GSP got 12"
Hence WYFF called it snowbound 87.

 

[ajr]

The high Wake gradient is a good validation signal, in my naive and uninformed opinion

 

[rburrel2]

It's way too early to know who the winners and losers will be, but if we get the bombing 50/50 low a portion of us will get a winter a storm. And you can tell this is happening (or not happening) at around hr 132 on the models. This key feature should resolve itself fairly soon. GFS/CMC say it doesn't happen. Euro/ICON/Ukmet say it does... who will win?

Edit to add the 12z JMA has the 50/50 too. FWIW,(not much).

 

[iGRXY]

EPS looks to be building to a stronger 50/50

 

[LovingGulfLows]

TROWAL systems this far south are so rare. Its why this EURO run is quite hard to believe atm. Last time I personally scored with a ULL driven system like this was March 2009. Very dynamic storms and can even bring down their own cold air and turn rain into heavy snow. Lets see what the ensembles say. Im still personally really skeptical but that was a good ULL track for N GA up through the western Carolinas.

 

[CaryWx]

We should have some good ensemble panels here. A few monsters I would expect

 

[iGRXY]

EPS is following the OP

 

[griteater]

TROWAL systems this far south are so rare. Its why this EURO run is quite hard to believe atm. Last time I personally scored with a ULL driven system like this was March 2009. Very dynamic storms and can even bring down their own cold air and turn rain into heavy snow. Lets see what the ensembles say. Im still personally really skeptical but that was a good ULL track for N GA up through the western Carolinas.

Difference with this compared to Mar '09 would be the potential for CAD out in front of the storm if the 50/50 and confluence can setup properly