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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm in a bad geographic spot for NW flow snow showers. Regardless, I'm sitting here wondering if should I have coffee or beer while sitting out on the front porch tomorrow late.
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I’m in Forsyth County. We can sometimes do okay with stuff coming from the NW, but most of the time it dries up before getting here. 0z HRRR puts my county in the bullseye, but I’m fully expecting nothing, maybe flurries.
 
buckinbronco said:
I’m in Forsyth County. We can sometimes do okay with stuff coming from the NW, but most of the time it dries up before getting here. 0z HRRR puts my county in the bullseye, but I’m fully expecting nothing, maybe flurries.
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OK, I'll fess up. I'm secretly hoping for that vorticity maximum that's progged to come directly overhead around sundown here to seriously overperform lol. I know better, but like a ? to the light, I can't help myself lol.
 
buckinbronco said:
I’m in Forsyth County. We can sometimes do okay with stuff coming from the NW, but most of the time it dries up before getting here. 0z HRRR puts my county in the bullseye, but I’m fully expecting nothing, maybe flurries.
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In an average winter, which we don't see very often these days, we see this setup probably 5 or 6 times and record a trace to a dusting.
 
J.C. said:
In an average winter, which we don't see very often these days, we see this setup probably 5 or 6 times and record a trace to a dusting.
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If I’m remembering correctly, I think I got like half an inch from NW flow last January. It’s never the 1-2” it shows sometimes on the short range modeling.
 
Steep lapse rate late afternoon into the early evening. That's a nice cold pool coming down under that backside vorticity.
nam3km_T700_seus_24.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
What I have to wonder is if these are genuinely convective in nature or not. That might explain why they aren't getting stuck behind the mountains in GA.
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We had something similar happen way back in April 2009. Can’t remember if it was an ULL involved in the setup, but I remember us having convective showers off and on that produced snow/graupel with temps in the 40s the whole time. That was a wild week in general because 2-3 days later we had a major tornado outbreak.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
We had something similar happen way back in April 2009. Can’t remember if it was an ULL involved in the setup, but I remember us having convective showers off and on that produced snow/graupel with temps in the 40s the whole time. That was a wild week in general because 2-3 days later we had a major tornado outbreak.
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I remember that. It was on a weekend and I was in ATL going to a couple Braves games and there were actually some flurries during one of the games.
 
Best flake action so far is in Wolf laurel, Waynesville. Even seeing some fly in Black Mountain. Just getting underway, Beech, Sugar are gonna have guns on, cameras frozen, so its hard to tell. No doubt Madison,Yancey, Mitchell, Haywood counties on TN line will rack up. Perfect angle for this one as the wind heading is right where you want it
 
The EPS and Canadian Ensembles are in lock step advertising big Cold/Nice deep trough rolling in here by next weekend. GFS Op is on another planet. The Gefs wants to park the trough out west past next weekend and the other ens suites stay east.

Just watch today how the GFS Op performs short range. Here it is at 6z hot off the press, Down East royal rumble today. Only model painting this much accum. The short range Nam, HWRF spit a dusting around a county or 2. The Canadian short range and euro are a nada burger.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
NCSNOW said:
The EPS and Canadian Ensembles are in lock step advertising big Cold/Nice deep trough rolling in here by next weekend. GFS Op is on another planet. The Gefs wants to park the trough out west past next weekend and the other ens suites stay east.

Just watch today how the GFS Op performs short range. Here it is at 6z hot off the press, Down East royal rumble today. Only model painting this much accum. The short range Nam, HWRF spit a dusting around a county or 2. The Canadian short range and euro are a nada burger.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
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Even the teleconnections look a little better this morning. The MJO looks like it wants to take a slower progression through phases 1/2, the AO stays clearly negative, the NAO is tries to dip slightly negative, and the PNA stays slightly positive.
 
WWA issued for the usual suspects in N. Ga.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

GAZ005>009-013>016-132000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.230113T1200Z-230114T0800Z/
Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-
Including the cities of Dahlonega and Cleveland
339 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two
inches in the highest elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35
mph.

* WHERE...Portions of the North Georgia Mountains, primarily above
1500 feet in elevation, located in north central and northeast
Georgia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Primary impacts are expected to occur in
areas above 1500 feet in elevation where Friday morning
temperatures will be colder and effects of wintry precip will
be felt sooner. Conditions could deteriorate rapidly around and
after sundown where temperatures will quickly drop below
freezing, allowing wintry precip to stick more efficiently and
any melted snow to freeze on surfaces and roadways.
 
SD said:
Gfs soundings are impressive but not supported by other models. Itd be nice to see something else jump on board at 12z even if we had to fight some BL issues View attachment 130062
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Yeah I thought NWS was rather bullish but then again there is a little support from the RAP (fwiw) and the HRRR, at least as far as getting precip goes. I feel confident there will be heavy enough precip in a small band to at least produce a rn/sn mix, maybe even switch to all sn briefly. Just my gut but I think that favors central NC to the SE sector (Durham, Wake, Johnston, Harnett). Small area lol

HRRR says a few counties NW of what I just listed, so we shall see. Nowcast time (almost)
 
Looking back there is some support from the rgem and 6z euro on there being some light precip around in the 3-12z period but they are both warm in the bl and likely lacking good lift in the dgz
 
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