That setup is pretty different because it had a extension of the TPV behind it/lower heights all the way back to the Great Lakes, so it sorta mucked the the damming high, this setup has higher heights over the Great LakesScroll through this thread from December 2019. Almost the exact same setup. *hint* *hint* we got all rain
Pattern - The Great December Dump
ULL looks weaker tho, so CAA is weaker, especially at 850mbsouthernwx.com
I think I will stay right here at home and get my paste bomb. Maybe not the powder snow that will be falling in Boone, but beggars can't be choosers.This is what you want to see. Well, if your going to the mountains next weekend View attachment 129467
Thanks fro i was curious to what it looked like up this way. I like the signals but I'm tempering my expectations till early next week.Boone ??? some monster members in there View attachment 129458
I was getting ready to comment on these. Pretty good signal. Definitely the mean track was further south than 12z. Maybe this could trend to a NW of I-85 instead of just the mountains?
With each of these runs you can see the battle to show or not to show a CAD. That's going to be the key thing to look for.
This GFS run not going to do it but .. it’s not far off of where the euro is.. just doesn’t have the same type of 50/50 that euro had which doesn’t allow the high to lock into place longer
gladly take that.
50/50 is likely the key.
Wilkesboro is that you?.......... I will not even pretend that I understand this post.This looks more like a wet rain vs dry rain for some. Let me explain. The track and transfer seen in some of the guidance can throw a ? in the evolution of this system. The moisture field could skip some areas and screech to a halt in some of the colder spots such as West Jefferson. It’s too early to know the exact track and eastward transfer details but a lot and I mean a lot more can go wrong than right in these unfavorable patterns. The European model is nice to look at but I'm holding some reserve until next Wednesday.
While this may end up being the big one for mountain regions by no means do I think us piedmont dwellers are out of this. Absolutely you wanna live in the mountains right now but I think many are still “in play” with this at this range. We could very well fail out and go cold rain per usual but I’ll put 3 of my 10 eggs in this basket right now. Cause why not ??View attachment 129474
GEFS improved. Definitely has more members with snow flying around and a big dog here.