tractor girl
Member
5 and 12 please
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Yeah that doesn't look good. Ensembles means can fool you and are terrible to use for storms this far out. I see only 5 out of 30 members with measurable snow here. At this point there is less than a 20% chance of snow and over 80% chance of no snow. That's the best way to use the ensembles in my opinion.
ATLwxfan
Member
Almost unfathomable how on that GFS op run there is no real cold to speak of in the conus outside of the higher elevations out west. What a time to be alive.
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griteater
Member
I’d say the GFS is ‘the early leader in the clubhouse’ with respect to never committing to the 50/50 low idea, unfortunately
ajr
Member
Unreal that the rain line is extending into Canada
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Well, now both major global models have given us head-fakes. Don't understand why the 50/50 just went poof. Still not writing it off yet .... but we need to see some positive trends.
There’s no way that the euro was seeing a 50/50 and now isn’t. This will trend back our way by Sun/mon.
I'm left wondering here but not out of the realm for sure
Carolina Sky
Member
The way the models work now I doubt it.
Shaggy
Member
why not? The models have not been great recently. We went from a NBM consensus of a major board wide snow for the xmas time frame and it 3 runs it jumped to Chicago and we went from winter weather to 60 and windy. I am about to the point the models are useless outside of 3-4 days.
jeremyt
Member
So,,,, is it ensemble runs or individual runs that one should look at a week out?????
This is why all the "the GFS is garbage I'll ride the Euro all day" is just silly at day 8, 9, 10, etc. Sure, the GFS is garbage at that range but so is the Euro and UK and CMC, etc. A big modeled SE winter storm at that range that is already extremely marginal is just not likely at all to happen, even if there is a lot of model agreement (which we haven't had) on it barely being cold enough and the snow maps are pretty. The pattern just doesn't support a snowstorm.
Well to be fair it doesn’t really matter if the pattern supports it or not. It did in December and we got nothing. It’s all just a guessing game.
rburrel2
Member
That’s all fine but what stings here is the euro/ukmet/icon missed the 50/50 formation(or lack there of) at just a 5 day lead time. I’d say that’s pretty uncommon but of course happens when we need it not to happen.
dsaur
Member
I particularly like when the models have rain surrounded by snow with the 0 line well south of the snow wrapped rain, lol. All the angst over models that can't even get it right most of the time within 3 days. Sure it's fun to track models, but we mustn't be upset when they disappoint with what they show
Most of the best ip/sn storms sneak up on us, and that's because outside 3 days the models are crap, and most predictions are just guessing too....except for yours, of course, lol.
You could probably use that same thinking for a lot of this discussion though. You could say that they all missed the thing at day one that screwed up the thing at day 2 that messed up the thing on day 3 that caused the 50/50 not to form on day 5.
I think what happens is that the models tend to show if storms or blocks or 50/50s out in time and then have them set up in really favorable positions even further out in time that lead to wintry scenarios for our region. Unfortunately, they tend to frequently overdo these features and suppress the height field too far to the south and show winter storm solutions that are probably and usually unrealistic.
Neither to be honest. Skill more than 7 days out is low for a storm either way. Ensembles are the most useful for long range patterns. But if you do use Ensembles for a storm signal it's best to do it like I described in my post and just count the hits and not pay attention much to a skewed meanSo,,,, is it ensemble runs or individual runs that one should look at a week out?????
My argument would be that while both a favorable and an unfavorable pattern can produce a snowstorm, you're going to have a better chance in a favorable pattern. I suppose that's why we think of it as a favorable pattern to begin with.
In this case there is simply no cold air and we're hoping for a feature to form that will enable what cold there is to be maximized in both its intensity, transport, and duration over our area. It's unfortunate, but that looks pretty unlike to happen.