campamy
Member
The 6z run was drastically different from the 0z. Nice to see that. Stormy pattern for sure in the LRCrazy enough even with the SEE gfs looked the best for some winter weather events down the road .. interesting
Would love to see the 12z EURO throw us some agreement love today!Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track or and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
Usually for the CAD regions of Upstate and E NC this is our best chance to get winter storms every winter. Atleast with CAD storms you have the cold already locked in when a system moves through. Someone our best winter storms have been CAD stormsLooks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track or and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
Hopefully with pdo going even more negative and tni spiking… our severe weather chance go upThe 6z run was drastically different from the 0z. Nice to see that. Stormy pattern for sure in the LR
I suppose from an ever-hopeful weenie view, at least we're going to get our source region rather frigid. While it's likely that the SE will be warm on average, perhaps we could get lucky with a couple of well-timed CAD events or strong cutters that drive in some artic air briefly for a following system to interact with?The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks
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0% confidence. Sswe are modeled about as often as 360hr snow storms that never pan out.I suppose from an ever-hopeful weenie view, at least we're going to get our source region rather frigid. While it's likely that the SE will be warm on average, perhaps we could get lucky with a couple of well-timed CAD events or strong cutters that drive in some artic air briefly for a following system to interact with?
Question. How confident should we be that the SSWE modeled for late January/early February is going to verify? And, what should we look for in modeling going forward to indicate that the modeled SSWE is propagating down and causing a pattern change, and where?
Thanks.
The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks
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Maybe. Looks warm though. Not sure a 1022 can get it done. Is that a meseo off a parent in Canada?View attachment 130198
Workable look
Are you having second thoughts about the incoming torch, and no wintry weather, that you have continually posted about for weeks? That can't be right....A couple caveats with this, for one thing if the trough off Atlantic Canada digs more, could end up seeing some CAD days, which would keep things cooler in cad favored areas of the Carolinas
The other thing is that I mentioned yesterday is that there will at least be cold air in the vicinity (in southern Canada and the conus). If this circulation pattern slips up (which it probably will from time to time), you have a much better chance to score something in this pattern than the one we’ve had the last few weeks (although that isn’t saying a whole lot).
Are you still in the East or back west? Looks like the SW might get some snow this coming week.A couple caveats with this, for one thing if the trough off Atlantic Canada digs more, could end up seeing some CAD days, which would keep things cooler in cad favored areas of the Carolinas
The other thing is that I mentioned yesterday is that there will at least be cold air in the vicinity (in southern Canada and the conus). If this circulation pattern slips up (which it probably will from time to time), you have a much better chance to score something in this pattern than the one we’ve had the last few weeks (although that isn’t saying a whole lot).
How tall the SE US ridge is and the downstream trough over Atlantic Canada will have a big role in determining whether we see severe weather or CAD (sometimes both happen) in general. Could be lots of variability in parts of the Carolinas going forward
Are you having second thoughts about the incoming torch, and no wintry weather, that you have continually posted about for weeks? That can't be right....
Are you still in the East or back west? Looks like the SW might get some snow this coming week.
Today was the first negative departure day for DFW since 12/27, a whopping -1°F...![]()
Driving to Beech is a cluster. Give yourself extra time. Lots of accidents / 2WD cars spinning outHeaded to Beech now. The resort is reporting 10” ?
Yes I've been saying this for awhile, this is a very good pattern to end up with an Ice Storm across CAD areas. And as we all know an ice storm is way overdue. I wouldn't be surprised to see one in the coming weeks.Yeah if you’re in the CAD favorable areas of NeGA, upstate SC, and piedmont NC this isn’t the worst pattern in the world. You can bet your bottom dollar we are going to CAD the hell out of the pattern regardless. You build in a nice 50/50 and you quickly get a great setup for winter weather in the western Carolinas. Problem is it will greatly favor sleet and ZR with standard Miller B’s. Overrunning could really be the best case scenario where we get some nice forcing on the front end to drive front end snows as well. Everywhere else in the southeast outside of the far western areas, good luck.
His latest report is about 15" with 24" drifts! Knoxville area with an impressive radar this morning. I really need to move to the other side of the hills, this area is awful.Buckethead was reporting 11” at Wolf Laurel 9hours ago and some 7” Beech reports already at midnight last night. Leaving in 45 mins. Hope the AWD can manage ?