GFS has shown 10-15 day out snowstorms for years. Euro used to always show 10 days out. 15 years ago several would verify but now even 72 hours out rarely verify. Been watching models for years and seems that they are getting worse and not better.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Seems like it always gets warm before we catch a snow. Maybe mid Jan this will happen
DobsonCityWx
Member
Good to see the GFS actually has a long range snow storm showing up.
lexxnchloe
Member
This looks much better. High in a good place with a storm in a good place. Add in a pinch more of cold.
SnowNiner
Member
If it's real, I like it, I like it a lot. Seems like the EPS/GEFS both generally agree on the jet being in a nice sweet spot right near Hawaii to give us an Aleutian trough, western ridge/eastern trough. AND, I notice what looks like an active southern jet. Would be great if it verifies, but who knows. Bet this rushes it a bit, but even add a week on to this and we're still near prime climo for us. Keep hope alive! Would it be too much for this to just get closer and closer in time and then to verify? Western troughs do! lol.
I know we go through this every time about cold/winter patterns not verifying well in the east/southeast but curious if that is just our own bias or do warmer looks in the east and colder looks out west verify with better scores vs any long range favorable winter looks for our region
That is a sneaky look just after day 10 on the GFS. Need a few more changes, but those little “marginal” looking threats can be our bread and butter.
Huffman, Cohen, BAM, and Furtado all like the prospects ahead...
That’s a seasonably cool, but active look right here. Pacific trough in GOA is in KU position, but Atlantic and 50/50 isn’t there 
LickWx
Member
Why are the Carolina’s continuously below average? Only spot on east coast to be below average this month. Smh. I’ve been through enough cad this month!
EPS looking the best so far out of all ensembles with a taller western ridge developing 
One thing I've been paying attention to is the beginning of a +PNA commencing on or about 01/06 hasn't been pushed out with time on any of the ensembles for days now. So, a flip back to winter fun and games in these parts starting around the 10th continues to look good.
Preach! No use in looking at them past 7 days, especially the GFS, and that is pushing it. And you need at least three of the major models to show something 24 hours out to really believe you have a shot, and even then it still might not be as much as the models show.
Yep just facts. Good ole Bastardi has mentioned cold coming back after Jan 8th for past 2 weeks after the brief torch. He has talked about how inconsistent models have been but also says even euro not as good as it was but still better than the gfs. You would think now in 2022 that the technology would give the models better consistency. But they don't
Latest Euro Weekly 7-day average for Jan 10 to Jan 17 looks good (a blue low off the NE Coast would make it better). It does move toward a -PNA late Jan into early Feb as it tries to bring the MJO east into the Indian Ocean. The good news is that the upcoming MJO movement is favorable (2nd image) so mid-Jan into late Jan has potential, and it's at the coldest climo portion of winter. The ensemble means have been backing off a bit on the strong high pressure dropping into E Asia in early Jan, so that could help a bit with calming down the Pac Jet....we'll have to see how that trends going forward
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SnowNiner
Member
Latest Euro Weekly 7-day average for Jan 10 to Jan 17 looks good (a blue low off the NE Coast would make it better). It does move toward a -PNA late Jan into early Feb as it tries to bring the MJO east into the Indian Ocean. The good news is that the upcoming MJO movement is favorable (2nd image) so mid-Jan into late Jan has potential, and it's at the coldest climo portion of winter. The ensemble means have been backing off a bit on the strong high pressure dropping into E Asia in early Jan, so that could help a bit with calming down the Pac Jet....we'll have to see how that trends going forward
I'm not sure I can remember a storm that delivered for the clt area that didn't have a WAR in some shape or form (in recent memory). We just need the pacific to deliver the cold, a nice steep rockies ridge, and some good timing with the highs moving east along with the moisture underneath. That seems to generally work for us. However it'd be great if we could keep that general pattern around at least a couple weeks to increase our chances. Who knows, maybe we trend to a true -NAO low, but that look could do work I think.
If you remember, last January the second of the 3 storms in CLT was actually aided by the WAR flexing more in the last 48 hours
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Pretty darn impressive
- Joined
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It's really hard to put a lot of stock in the CFS, but those are some pretty impressive negative departures.
The CFS did pretty well with the general pattern in advance of the last several weeks… it was probably a bit too extreme overall though
Not seeing a lot to be excited for the first week or two in January. I guess the bright spot is that the ridge dominating the eastern US isn’t of the SouthEastern variety ?
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Gotta be warm to get back where we need to be, surely are next few opportunities we score. We are like 0 for 5 so far this winter.Not seeing a lot to be excited for the first week or two in January. I guess the bright spot is that the ridge dominating the eastern US and isn’t of the SouthEastern variety ?
Can’t wait for the warmer stuff. Actually gonna be able to go back outside again 
Torch. nighttime low version 
This look isn’t bad, but isn’t great honestly. This looks very polar pacific esque, that can get the job done now, but lack of 50/50 with a stale airmass isn’t screaming winter storm pattern. Need to see heights build in AK/above AK for any legit cold air. It’s a active look, but I’ve seen more cold rains with this look more then often 
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I see good agreement on the first two rain storms, one this weekend (unfortunately) and one next week around Wednesday. After that, the systems look to deliver cold rain at best for most, except TN and possibly northern MS and AL. Interesting to see such good agreement among long range models at this point.
bigstick10
Member
My driveway is a sheet of ice..
I can see it now 48/29, 51/32, 50/33 34/33
Gotta hope the means are smoothing and masking amplification here but I doubt that's the case. The end of the 6z gfs was a great example of eating the L due to lack of arctic cold. It's a great pattern for a few events to end as snow or for the classic wedge areas to get ice but for the majority of us it needs help
Yep, not a good trend the last day. as we get closer we’re trending to more pac jet. Lower heights on the EC but it wouldn’t be much cold with this. Like I said not a terrible look, I’m honestly a bit nervous we do the same thing where we get a transient good pattern with legit cold, then return quickly to a more traditional La Niña look
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, the weeklies @griteater posted yesterday had a really nice Alaskan/western ridge going up to the pole. Perhaps in the short term we're seeing the transition into the better period, and hopefully the Aleutian low keeps creeping a bit west to give room for more AK ridge amplification. Today's ensembles look to "sink" the canadian ridging strangely. I'm sure it'll look completely different good/worse in a few days.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah even if it's half right that's still pretty impressive departures
I think the models are going to end up too fast with the jet retraction so we are going to see worse trends in that day 8+ window but always end with a classic look. I think we get to colder but it's probably more 3 weeks away instead of 2
NCSNOW
Member
A lot of this is chilly rain for my area next 10 days. Should get ground thawed out over next couple of days at least. But it has a lot of moisture froze up in it and that will make for a soggy yard.
