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Pattern Jammin January 2023

I am definitely keeping an eye on the new year! decent shear MLCAPE is creeping up worth checking in for more consistency, but something to look at since a good snow for the south doesn't seem to be possible even with the coldest air since near the birth of Jesus!!
 
Even the GFS out at fantasy range is picking up on the flip back to winter.
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Hpdb301 said:
I am definitely keeping an eye on the new year! decent shear MLCAPE is creeping up worth checking in for more consistency, but something to look at since a good snow for the south doesn't seem to be possible even with the coldest air since near the birth of Jesus!!
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Yeah dews in the mid to upper 60s is a huge red flag in Spring. Even more so in the cold season ???
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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I spy with my little eye … a little cut off up there in the Arctic… we’re not even close to done with cold .. wondering if we get this delayed another week or so after this but models seem consistent in wanting to bring this back mid January .. maybe sooner??
 
Oconeexman said:
I know it's fantasy gfs but that big fat juicy rolling through at 384...
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What ever happens going forward I've already had two nights colder, and much much colder than my lowest low last year, and winters only a few days old. I'll take that as a win for this winter. If I get some snow tomorrow I'll have to get a lotto ticket, lol.
 
Good read ajr. Looks like PV gets wound up and hits its peak mid to late this upcoming week,then the tearing dow,disruption process begins in earnest by Jan 1. Of course we have a lag time for sensible wx while this unfolds. We want a complete tear down,disruption of pv, not a transitional hiccup. Most are wagering is a complete tear down,but jury is out and we will know with more certainty in about a week. Eitheur way would match up to a Jan 9th time frane to flip, give or take a day or 2.

Grit,Web and Fro will be able to disect this Im sure. Grit laid out 3 possible outcomes yesterday. Hopefully we can get a good second half of Jan window of opportunity to score.
 
NCSNOW said:
Good read ajr. Looks like PV gets wound up and hits its peak mid to late this upcoming week,then the tearing dow,disruption process begins in earnest by Jan 1. Of course we have a lag time for sensible wx while this unfolds. We want a complete tear down,disruption of pv, not a transitional hiccup. Most are wagering is a complete tear down,but jury is out and we will know with more certainty in about a week. Eitheur way would match up to a Jan 9th time frane to flip, give or take a day or 2.

Grit,Web and Fro will be able to disect this Im sure. Grit laid out 3 possible outcomes yesterday. Hopefully we can get a good second half of Jan window of opportunity to score.
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Yeah you can see the way the AO initially starts to spike later this week and early next week coincides with the strengthening PV, however after that the AO falls sharply negative again, which should prevent it from getting too wound up.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
euro run is - tilt S/W after - tilt S/W after - tilt S/W. Lol so many severe weather setups
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Yeah next weekend is showing some bad signals already. Two negative tilt shortwave coming in rapid succession. Temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with dews over 60 spread over a wide area. Bears watching500hv.conus.png500hv.conus (1).pngsfctd.conus (1).pngsfct.conus (1).png
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
Yeah next weekend is showing some bad signals already. Two negative tilt shortwave coming in rapid succession. Temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with dews over 60 spread over a wide area. Bears watchingView attachment 128556View attachment 128557View attachment 128559View attachment 128558
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They look messy, but they look like those setups that produces those notable 1-4 long tracked supercells along the boundary that produce stronger tornadoes before they go QLCS, especially with the -tilt
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
No, no, no, no ,no!!!! This is winter… supposed to be cold.. and we are overdue big time for snow!! We haven’t had a meaningful snow here in 3-4 years!!! Waaaay too long without snow. Take that severe weather out to the fish!
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It’s Dixie alley’s time to shine, climo wise Dixie heats up between now-April
 
Pilotwx said:
10 days out warm rain forecast most of the time is right, 10 days out Snow forecast always wrong . . Snow storms are cutting to the North have been for years .
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I don’t think there’s ever a 10 day snow forecast. There was a 10 day out below normal temperature range forecast which did verify.
 
This is the reality of situation. Take a break from here because it will be at least until mid January before things look remotely favorable for a return to cold and storminess for our area. Imo of course
 
The polar vortex disruption forecast is really starting to show its face. If we see the type of disruption the models are currently forecasting you can expect some wild weather and possibly quite wintry weather for mid January through late January. It’s an impressive signal but of course the coldest air has the ability to slosh around on all parts of the northern hemisphere not just ours. I still believe though that this is what you want to see for winter weather chances here in the SE after what looks to be a good week or so of warmth. As some like to allude to “kicking the can down the road” it’s really normal for models to jump the gun on pattern changes by a week or so and that’s what happened with this last pattern change. It still happens as it did this year but it’s a normal error in models to turn the pattern too quick. Are we seeing that here? Perhaps. Models shooting for 9-15 change.. I’ll bet on a 15-20th when we change to colder and a better shot for winter precip chances as of right now.
 
Ya gotta love Dixie Alley in the cold season. Remarkable how we can go from an arctic outbreak with consecutive days below freezing to a week later having a moisture and primed atmosphere. As Remarkable as it was to watch the arctic front come through its going to be equally Remarkable to watch the atmosphere do a complete 180 in a very short period of time. We have been in this pattern for most of the fall and winter season of going from one extreme to the other. Can make for some interesting forecasts. I firmly believe we will swing back to the deep freeze sooner rather than later but we may have to go through a rocky patch or two to get there. FWIW GFS still showing a decent environment for storms next weekend sfct.conus (2).pngsfctd.conus (2).png500hv.conus (2).png
 
Hopefully tonight's GEFS Extended run is the truth and nothing but the truth

1st loop is 850mb Temp Anomalies in 7-day increments from Jan 1-8 to Jan 21-28.

2nd image is 500mb Height Anomalies for Jan 18-25

3rd thru 5th images are MJO RMM plots from Euro, GEFS, and CFS - these couldn't really be any better as we move out into mid-January if we can just get the Pac Jet to calm down a bit and not over-extend

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Well looking like the 1st possible stormy weather will get stuck south of Birmingham area looking like storms firing along the gulf will occlude northern development. Seems this is the norm.. still have to watch the other systems set to push through later in the week. still worth watching as there is ample time for changes! Hoping everyone had a Merry Christmas!
 
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