SASQUATCH
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Nice to see jet retraction showing up on smoothed ensemble means/OPs
These look nice .. January thaw and then phase 8-1-2 MJO? Let’s ride 
Euro goes into the COD before it gets there. GFS takes a month to finally get back into P7.
COD is good. Patience is key and trends are good. Thaw early January .. mid to late January we could be back in business
I have always understood the COD to mean that when the MJO registers that value, its impacts are negligible. I've always preferred it entering the COD after being in one of the better phases. In any case, someone said it before (I think it might have been you), and I agree, that the pattern has been variable. I'm not worried about a sustained torch pattern.
Plus, the CFS still looks good for mid-Jan.
It’s all about backing the pacific jet enough. When that happens we probably initially have slowed flow over the US, could maybe score in that, then western ridge and EC trough (could score in that) then enough retraction and -PNA/North Pacific ridge
That’s a chunky southeast ridge 
iGRXY
Member
Looks like that 2 week pattern change is holding true. I expect by the 10th we will be heading back to below normal. We will still be in peak climo for about another 10 days so still opportunities out there.
Oconeexman
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I agree we're looking at around the 10th before we see a shot another good pattern showing up. Then give it a week more for "delayed not denied" garb. Man thats pushing into the 3rd week of january. That's a little depressing
That gefs evolution at H5 and 10mb is ?
Kidney beans are on the menu ? ? 
Western ridge was going up at the end of the GEFS if it’s any consolation
A reflection of the retraction/backing up of the pacific jet that’ll eventually happen ?
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NoSnowATL
Member
Yep, should have a cold April.
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Back to 384. But at least we can only go to a good pacific from to much extension with some regression before we go back to a bad one with to much regression 
It looks more like we’re shifting from a solid jet extension to an extension/poleward regime. Poleward regimes have the tendency to be very warm and flood the mid latitudes, hence the warmup. I don’t think we’ll see a retraction anytime soon to the point that we get a traditional La Niña Aleutian Ridge.
Our favorability will come when the jet shifts back to where it is now. The GEFS looks warm at the moment, but you can see heights building over the Pacific Northwest to indicate where things are going around the 10th as the jet shifts more equatorial.
I’m currently working on some composites for the North Pacific Jet phases. I will post them when I’m done.
That’s kinda what I was saying and been saying for a while when I say that… i know we’re overextending the next week. I was saying we need to back up the jet eventually, like what the gefs shows, in order to improve the pattern.
Interesting in those NPAC jet phase composites.
At the end of the day we still have a La Niña background, we’re eventually gonna retract, likely in late jan/early Feb, it’s just bound to happen, maritime forcing is heavily favored in Nina’s mid-later on in winter. Reason for the overextension is to much deposition of +AAM into the pacific jet, +AAM finally resulting in consistent and heavy positive east Asia mountain torque
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