Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Hpdb301]

I am definitely keeping an eye on the new year! decent shear MLCAPE is creeping up worth checking in for more consistency, but something to look at since a good snow for the south doesn't seem to be possible even with the coldest air since near the birth of Jesus!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can’t say there isn’t a signal of change at this point

 

[NCSNOW]

I had Thunder and Lightening 2 mornings in a row Dec22 and Dec 23 with temps in the 30s both times. Crazy

Fro fingers crossed we flip back Jan 10th. Thats about the halfway point of Met winter. Amazing how fast it seems to come and go each year.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Even the GFS out at fantasy range is picking up on the flip back to winter.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Can’t say there isn’t a signal of change at this point View attachment 128459View attachment 128460View attachment 128461View attachment 128463

January 2022.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

I am definitely keeping an eye on the new year! decent shear MLCAPE is creeping up worth checking in for more consistency, but something to look at since a good snow for the south doesn't seem to be possible even with the coldest air since near the birth of Jesus!!

Yeah dews in the mid to upper 60s is a huge red flag in Spring. Even more so in the cold season ???

 

[SD]

Giddy up

 

[SnowNiner]

Can’t say there isn’t a signal of change at this point View attachment 128459View attachment 128460View attachment 128461View attachment 128463

I'll take it. Our old bread and butter. +PNA/-EPOish/+NAO with a WAR out in the Atlantic. It's not perfect but we usually score somehow, someway when the western ridge is tall enough. Let's go back to the basics, lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Menacing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 128498

I spy with my little eye … a little cut off up there in the Arctic… we’re not even close to done with cold .. wondering if we get this delayed another week or so after this but models seem consistent in wanting to bring this back mid January .. maybe sooner??

 

[WNC_Fort]

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Never happen......

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So entire NA is AN ? Lol this map is a joke

 

[Webberweather53]

Even just one week of this in todays world is all it’s gonna take to give us an above average January.

After experiencing -30F wind chill for the 2nd time in my life last night, I’m ready for it to be 70F again

 

[Oconeexman]

I know it's fantasy gfs but that big fat juicy rolling through at 384...

 

[dsaur]

I know it's fantasy gfs but that big fat juicy rolling through at 384...

What ever happens going forward I've already had two nights colder, and much much colder than my lowest low last year, and winters only a few days old. I'll take that as a win for this winter. If I get some snow tomorrow I'll have to get a lotto ticket, lol.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Euro control looked good at the end

 

[ajr]

Really nice and thorough discussion of potential upcoming PV weakening and implications: https://www.severe-weather.eu/globa...arming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/

 

[NCSNOW]

Good read ajr. Looks like PV gets wound up and hits its peak mid to late this upcoming week,then the tearing dow,disruption process begins in earnest by Jan 1. Of course we have a lag time for sensible wx while this unfolds. We want a complete tear down,disruption of pv, not a transitional hiccup. Most are wagering is a complete tear down,but jury is out and we will know with more certainty in about a week. Eitheur way would match up to a Jan 9th time frane to flip, give or take a day or 2.

Grit,Web and Fro will be able to disect this Im sure. Grit laid out 3 possible outcomes yesterday. Hopefully we can get a good second half of Jan window of opportunity to score.