what happened in december 2015? was that a warm month for us? just curious
December 2015 was very, very warm as I recall. Christmas Day actually had a dewpoint near 70F. Very wet and warm.
Dec 2015 was a record breaking warm December, in fact one of the warmest December’s ever
*mask off* i played dumb here to illicit this exact response and make a point that we will be getting through a less than stellar pattern
Heels won the title in 4 of those years!
That's a good point because January 2016 was honestly not bad.
completely get it, i def wondered if we'd see measurable snow that winter around new years. i want to say it shows how the narrative can turn, although if i remember right if if that mega-storm didn't happen, we may remember 2015-2016 in similar standing to 2011-2012
Key mid-late jan will be a transient 50/50 low as we step down. Lots of polar pacific waves but lower heights in the Atlantic can get job done with marginal airmass. Don’t see signs of that on modeling yet
The 2 week on/2 week off pattern really has been the overall pattern since about mid September, and I really think that’s just how things will likely shake out the rest of the winter. I really think that we can throw out everything we know about LaNina backgrounds because this just isn’t acting like a LaNina fall/winter.
It hasn’t acted like a La Niña for the past 3 winters.
Those are good points, but I doubt it locks in for all that long. It'll take some time to come out of, but unless we have continuous unfavorable tropical forcing or strong nino-like SSTs or a super wound up SPV, we'll be more variable than it looks right now....over the longer time frames, I mean.
January 2016 brought snowzilla to Nashville. Pretty sure that month was still above normal here. In fact most winter months have been above normal here since 2015 yet we’ve had some incredible winters the last 8 years. Not sure why or how the winters have been so great this last decade here with the warmer temps but I’m not complaining. With this January looking warm for at least the first half, maybe we are setting up for a FAB FEBRUARY ????
Absolutely… IMHO I think what were seeing is the effects of a dying 3 year Niña going into a neutral ENSO,and we’re just getting different looks. This is why this winter in particular was going to be so difficult for long range forecasting because our sampling of 3rd year Niña is so small
NBM is even higher
Who wants to go to Lake Tahoe? ?I remember this storm had the rare southeast trend right up to go time. The night before I was forecasted to get some just some onset ice and maybe some backside flurries. Instead I saw a quick 1/2” of snow and then a couple inches of sleet, and thin glaze of ZR and then another coating of snow on the backside.
We should have a decent look once we get out to Jan 8th or so and can view the LR from there
Nice little event especially for you. We still had snow in the shade last night even though we hit 50. It's amazing what frozen ground can do.I would take another clipper. It works out better for my area. These were from Tuesday morning.
Local weather was predicting 4-5 inches here the day before the storm. However the night before the models brought the cold in quicker and it was clear it would be a big storm. I believe the forecast was for 8 inches and I ended up with 12. This was the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen at home as all of this fell in 6 hours. At the beginning we had 3inch per hour rates and averaged about 2 inches per hour! I do believe Memphis got the screw job however as they were expecting a big snow and didn’t get much more the a dusting to an inch.
Greater than 270 hours = no confidence
It’s really a good pattern for the west, which has seemed to be in perma- drought , the last 5-10 years! I’ll gladly let them have my snow, if it can fill up their reservoirs and give them the snowpack they need to not have raging forest fires every year! Good on them!
Hopefully some good rains for Lake Mead as well.
Glad I don’t focus on the 300 hours out models.
Timing my friend!
Yes we are ("about to go full on <Super> Niño and throw our hands in the air"). Mid to late Jan is when we need to cash in (and peak temperature climo) as the nightmare scenario is this extended Pac Jet continues well into January before snapping back quickly into a traditional La Nina look (Aleutian Ridge / -PNA) going into early Feb as the tropical convection signal moves back around into the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. Think we need to just sit tight for now though and see if we can get some better looks over the next week as we move toward mid-late Jan. I wouldn't expect the Pac Jet to continue raging into late Jan
Very true! But then again, you saying you'll give up snow is meaningless, as you're guaranteed a bunch of it every year.
