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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not seeing a lot to be excited for the first week or two in January. I guess the bright spot is that the ridge dominating the eastern US and isn’t of the SouthEastern variety ?‍♂️ View attachment 128760
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Gotta be warm to get back where we need to be, surely are next few opportunities we score. We are like 0 for 5 so far this winter.
 
This look isn’t bad, but isn’t great honestly. This looks very polar pacific esque, that can get the job done now, but lack of 50/50 with a stale airmass isn’t screaming winter storm pattern. Need to see heights build in AK/above AK for any legit cold air. It’s a active look, but I’ve seen more cold rains with this look more then often 6167D596-76B8-4E11-9A4E-976D2E283B98.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can’t wait for the warmer stuff. Actually gonna be able to go back outside again View attachment 128767
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I see good agreement on the first two rain storms, one this weekend (unfortunately) and one next week around Wednesday. After that, the systems look to deliver cold rain at best for most, except TN and possibly northern MS and AL. Interesting to see such good agreement among long range models at this point.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This look isn’t bad, but isn’t great honestly. This looks very polar pacific esque, that can get the job done now, but lack of 50/50 with a stale airmass isn’t screaming winter storm pattern. Need to see heights build in AK/above AK for any legit cold air. It’s a active look, but I’ve seen more cold rains with this look more then often View attachment 128772
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I can see it now 48/29, 51/32, 50/33 34/33
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Very similar to jan 2021. That’s a pattern we’re gonna suffer with cold rains and close call but more then likely failed wet snows
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Gotta hope the means are smoothing and masking amplification here but I doubt that's the case. The end of the 6z gfs was a great example of eating the L due to lack of arctic cold. It's a great pattern for a few events to end as snow or for the classic wedge areas to get ice but for the majority of us it needs help
 
SD said:
Gotta hope the means are smoothing and masking amplification here but I doubt that's the case. The end of the 6z gfs was a great example of eating the L due to lack of arctic cold. It's a great pattern for a few events to end as snow or for the classic wedge areas to get ice but for the majority of us it needs help
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At least it's not a pattern that will take half the winter to get out of, so that's a positive, I guess.

The CFS lol looks pretty decent for later in January, but then it brings back the Aleutian ridge. But it is the CFS, so...
 
SD said:
Gotta hope the means are smoothing and masking amplification here but I doubt that's the case. The end of the 6z gfs was a great example of eating the L due to lack of arctic cold. It's a great pattern for a few events to end as snow or for the classic wedge areas to get ice but for the majority of us it needs help
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Yep, not a good trend the last day. as we get closer we’re trending to more pac jet. Lower heights on the EC but it wouldn’t be much cold with this. Like I said not a terrible look, I’m honestly a bit nervous we do the same thing where we get a transient good pattern with legit cold, then return quickly to a more traditional La Niña look 0AC35669-3B65-4DCF-A518-534A727AD1F1.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This look isn’t bad, but isn’t great honestly. This looks very polar pacific esque, that can get the job done now, but lack of 50/50 with a stale airmass isn’t screaming winter storm pattern. Need to see heights build in AK/above AK for any legit cold air. It’s a active look, but I’ve seen more cold rains with this look more then often View attachment 128772
Click to expand...

Yeah, the weeklies @griteater posted yesterday had a really nice Alaskan/western ridge going up to the pole. Perhaps in the short term we're seeing the transition into the better period, and hopefully the Aleutian low keeps creeping a bit west to give room for more AK ridge amplification. Today's ensembles look to "sink" the canadian ridging strangely. I'm sure it'll look completely different good/worse in a few days.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, not a good trend the last day. as we get closer we’re trending to more pac jet. Lower heights on the EC but it wouldn’t be much cold with this. Like I said not a terrible look, I’m honestly a bit nervous we do the same thing where we get a transient good pattern with legit cold, then return quickly to a more traditional La Niña look View attachment 128775
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I think the models are going to end up too fast with the jet retraction so we are going to see worse trends in that day 8+ window but always end with a classic look. I think we get to colder but it's probably more 3 weeks away instead of 2
 
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