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Pattern Jammin January 2023

The 6z GEFS was probably an aberration. The 12z suite going to what the EPS & GEPS are showing w/ +PNA

This would be a good circulation pattern if we had the cold air in place already from say a previous arctic outbreak, but we're getting modest continental polar air masses from central Canada, which are already starting out pretty modified by the strong/extended N Pac jet.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3676000.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Pattern being modeled is about as fast as you’ll ever see. But not only is it fast, it sucks while being fast. That’s all I’ve got today.
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Hold the phone Jimmy
GFS says it’s only an hour drive away! Mountain mauler8AE14CA8-DBCE-4308-A74A-621CF57EDAA2.png
 
Yeah I mean after a torch period I’m not too worried about being average in the heart of our climo. Things can work out and we’re still 300+ hours out to the time I expect models to get somewhat more favorable for colder attacks and winter precip chances. Along with the possibility of a Strat warming disruption and how I know those can really change modeling as that comes into full swing I’m still not worried about not seeing more favorable periods of winter weather chances for the SE in general. No need to worry much about a 300+ hour forecast right now. It’s just a time to watch and see it comes closer and see how things trend. Also we’re just not going to see a slam dunk pattern like we did on Christmas those are rare so gotta remember that as well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Probably the best EPS run yet but you can see the snap back occurring the the pacific as the EC trough is in place. We might have a very short window quite honestlyView attachment 129118
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Yep that’s about what I figured. Short window here mid-late Jan as the pacific jet snaps back and we get some brief +PNA during the intervening transition period from one phase of the NPO to the other. Oth, we may get a respectable cold shot in the process as we get some blocking over the far North Pacific + Alaska
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There’s no cold air source
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That’s what happens when you blow your whole winter wad on 3 mediocre cold days around Christmas! It will take until April to build back up and make it back on this side of the world
 
Well JB thinks arctic air gets in the pattern? IDK
Euro and NCEP fighting their way toward phase 8, CFSV2 is all in..
euro now seeing a negative EPO developing, with an increasing strong neg AO
Euro by 360 has an inverted U-shaped ridge over the trough which to m means. widespread arctic air is taking over
ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_3784000.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There’s no cold on our side, but in a time of desperation, this a trend you want to continue to see around Atlantic Canada View attachment 129124
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Yep the Atlantic Canada trough is nice for locking in cold air, the problem is we don’t really have any to begin with, so you’re probably just trending to colder rain there. Bleh
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep the Atlantic Canada trough is nice for locking in cold air, the problem is we don’t really have any to begin with, so you’re probably just trending to colder rain there. Bleh
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The mountains are a different story though, I’d travel there and stay in with jimmy, go 50/50 for a Boone bomb, unless any other poster would wanna go and chip in
 
LOL. I've missed a lot on this forum. Based on WebberWeather's expert forecast, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that ya'll are waiting for some magic window of opportunity depicted on the 300 hour GFS that might drop a 2-6" snowfall if some PAC System is able to the thread the needle by timing the deeper cold air just right with one of those two vortexes sliding along the polar jet. You got that trough sliding into the wrong positions at 250 hours on the 18z. Then there's that tropical energy that tries to get involved at 300 hours, and then a some kind of subtropical system at 384 somehow lol. If you want snow, your best bet will be near Truckee, California. They'll probably get 5-10 times your yearly average in a week. This winter is putting in some work trying to end that drought in the SW.

BTW, the SOI hit 55 this past week and then 50 the next day. Despite that particular signal, I get the impression that we're going to see a radical shift towards El Nino. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
 
Tornadocane said:
LOL. I've missed a lot on this forum. Based on WebberWeather's expert forecast, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that ya'll are waiting for some magic window of opportunity depicted on the 300 hour GFS that might drop a 2-6" snowfall if some PAC System is able to the thread the needle by timing the deeper cold air just right with one of those two vortexes sliding along the polar jet. You got that trough sliding into the wrong positions at 250 hours on the 18z. Then there's that tropical energy that tries to get involved at 300 hours, and then a some kind of subtropical system at 384 somehow lol. If you want snow, your best bet will be near Truckee, California. They'll probably get 5-10 times your yearly average in a week. This winter is putting in some work trying to end that drought in the SW.

BTW, the SOI hit 55 this past week and then 50 the next day. Despite that particular signal, I get the impression that we're going to see a radical shift towards El Nino. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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The actual truth is nobody not even Webber knows what it’s really going to do. It’s all an educated guess. These patterns change so quickly we could wake up any day this week and see things changing in our favor. We just never know.
 
Tornadocane said:
LOL. I've missed a lot on this forum. Based on WebberWeather's expert forecast, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that ya'll are waiting for some magic window of opportunity depicted on the 300 hour GFS that might drop a 2-6" snowfall if some PAC System is able to the thread the needle by timing the deeper cold air just right with one of those two vortexes sliding along the polar jet. You got that trough sliding into the wrong positions at 250 hours on the 18z. Then there's that tropical energy that tries to get involved at 300 hours, and then a some kind of subtropical system at 384 somehow lol. If you want snow, your best bet will be near Truckee, California. They'll probably get 5-10 times your yearly average in a week. This winter is putting in some work trying to end that drought in the SW.

BTW, the SOI hit 55 this past week and then 50 the next day. Despite that particular signal, I get the impression that we're going to see a radical shift towards El Nino. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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Short term variations in the SOI doesn't really have any bearing on day-to-day weather here. It's probably the single worst index you could use to gauge tropical - extratropical teleconnections because it's based solely on SLP from 2 locations (in high loading areas of ENSO, but still), making it very prone to noise. It's only real utility is analyzing pre-mid 20th century ENSO.
 
1672660203932.pngModels trending towards this overrunning look. Might be a decent event for Roxboro
 
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
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Great, we can all save a lot of time not checking this board after Jan 31st.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Being sarcastic. Because that’s nowhere near a “warm pattern” looks like a classic Nino stale pattern but not a warm pattern
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No doubt Its as stale looking as far the eye can see on models. Im trying to find a way a Cold HP can slide in the slot at just the right time for my area and they just arent there yet. Only way I can see this pattern producing any frozen for my location cause as youve explained well,the cold just isnt quite there. Gonna have to get from the NE whether by a big CAD HP or 50/50 confluence.
 
NCSNOW said:
No doubt Its as stale looking as far the eye can see on models. Im trying to find a way a Cold HP can slide in the slot at just the right time for my area and they just arent there yet. Only way I can see this pattern producing any frozen for my location cause as youve explained well,the cold just isnt quite there. Gonna have to get from the NE whether by a big CAD HP or 50/50 confluence.
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Takes the pacific trough/GOAK backing off enough and raising heights in central/western Canada to allow some northern stream energy to dive down and phase with a prior pacific wave right to our NE to make things interesting and have a marginal but enough of a cold air feed. But for now the GOAK trough is too far east and too strong. Main things we need to look for is - pac/GOAK trough trending further west, ridge axis further west, ridge axis in Canada stronger/sharper and more positively tilted and further west to try and introduce a colder piece of N/S energy, then a pacific wave phasing the with energy close by (NE would prob have to win), so it can bomb and then become confluence/a 50/50 with a marginal, but enough of a cold source for us. Models have perhaps tried hinting at it around the 10-12th, but remain to progressive for anything
 
The SubX multi-model ensemble keeps the El Nino gravy train going into mid-late January w/ some semblance of a +PNA. Not a great pattern verbatim though, but probably the best we're gonna see before this Aleutian trough retrogrades even more & allows the -PNA/SE ridge to become re-established sometime near the end of January or early February.

MME_zg_500.png

MME_zg_500Prb.png

MME_tas_NA.png

MME_pr_NA.png
 
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.
 
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