Pattern Jammin January 2023

[J1C1111]

I’m sorry, but I’m serious, you can ask folks on here, Im a snow weenie, but I’m the biggest warm weenie here besides lick. look at the Feb/March/April/May threads from last year

Come on Fro. We all know. Hang in there buddy. You and lick still have quite a ways to go till May. But you live in the southeast. You will get your warmups as always but im afraid more cold is coming down the road for you also as it's not even January yet. For now though, the 10 day or so warmup will give you and lick a much needed chance to thaw out and knock the ice off. Enjoy your warm up.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Looking forward to some warmer temperatures and hopefully even a touch of moisture in the air! Between the really low dewpoints and heat running non stop my nose and throat have become exceedingly dry. Skin drying out to! ??

 

[Bham 99]

Also, this is just antidotal, but I don't agree with people rooting for the coldest part of the polar vortex to be on our side of the globe. In general, it almost always winds up staying more stationary in northern Canada and we get SE ridge treatment, or cold/dry with cutters in between.

Just my opinion going off memory from the last 20 years of winter pattern watching.

We have already seen what super cold air can do for us in these latitudes.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That PAC jet is gonna have to relax ??‍

 

[NCSNOW]

Interesting tweet here. But like Fro pointed out earlier, 50/50 region isnt an exact match to validate this point imo.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That PAC jet is gonna have to relax ??‍ View attachment 128820

Nothings really happening that we haven’t been expecting. Warm first half of January. Colder second half with more opportunities for winter weather. ??‍

 

[JLL1973]

Wow after tonight the gfs shows no sub freezing temps throughout the entire model run for us in the midsouth area.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Interesting tweet here. But like Fro pointed out earlier, 50/50 region isnt an exact match to validate this point imo.

View attachment 128827

But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828

Yep no 50/50 low with the look showing up mid jan. It’s been a struggle all winter long so far. The look showing up is a mid pattern at best. Favors mountain and interior NE snow events and cold rains around here. It isn’t a snow look or a look to even get excited about. 50/50 low is a key element in NC winter storms

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs is trending towards more pacific jet in the longer range, effectively delaying the pattern and causing a way warmer run,
Let’s gooo love to see it.

 

[SD]

But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828

And the block N of Ak

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And the block N of Ak

Yep. That’s what injects true cold into our patterns, as seen the last week

 

[Stevo24]

But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828

Well we saw this map look great for the end of December for a few weeks and we see how that turned out. So this map really means nothing lol

 

[Ollie Williams]

And the block N of Ak

-EPOs help, but aren't necessary for snow, especially in CAD-favored areas. Although, if you want a board-wide Miller-A, your chances do increase with a N AK block.

 

[AJ1013]

Miller B’s are awful for my area. Miller A please.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I’ll continue to say as I’ve always thought. Pattern change is not coming early to mid January. It’s mid to late January when we should see colder and more potential for storms of the winter variety. Everyone should be expecting warmer than usual weather through January 15th. That’s always been the expectation.

 

[wxdaniel]

The end of the run, I would love to see that happen. It looks similar to this past week. However, with a more active STJ. What confuses me is the block heading to the Aleutian with a stormy Russia. Thought a more active Siberia was bad.

 

[Itryatgolf]

I know this is a weather forum and we talk weather, but like I mentioned a few days ago, we take a long break until at least mid January, we won't miss anything or probably later than that. Hopefully we get into a favorable pattern sometime in January so we don't totally lose that month

 

[POWERSTROKE]

But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828

In his video he said mid Atlantic and northeast. Never mentioned southeast as far as after the torch

 

[NCSNOW]

GFS brings releif from the heat wave by Jan 6th. If you go back and look theres a 24 hour period where it snows over 60 inches in the Sierra Nevada and its still spitting snow on this frame. But thats insane rates for 24 hrs. Course its also the gfs op