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Pattern Jammin January 2023

The SubX multi-model ensemble keeps the El Nino gravy train going into mid-late January w/ some semblance of a +PNA. Not a great pattern verbatim though, but probably the best we're gonna see before this Aleutian trough retrogrades even more & allows the -PNA/SE ridge to become re-established sometime near the end of January or early February.

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For future reference, here's the link to this site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jhicks/subx/
 
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
We don’t know this. We’ve seen time after time monthly forecasts completely wrong. Let’s relax. Feb climo is always our best chance in the southeast
 
We don’t know this. We’ve seen time after time monthly forecasts completely wrong. Let’s relax. Feb climo is always our best chance in the southeast
CFS going anti-Nina climo for February wrt the SE ridge. It's clearly going to be wrong again. Better somehow someway make Jan 26-29 work out.

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Just a pretty map!
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mehh pattern doesnt look GREAT but to say winter is OVER might be streching it
I would say if your winter definition includes meaningful snowfall, then winter is most likely over. There will still be cold spells and cold rain, though and plenty of cool days to work outside!
 
I like that look, nice deep cold SE can vortex dipping SE with a trailing high and nice western ridge extending up into Canada with a continued active pac trough feeding in waves View attachment 129154
Nice look. Should be able to get temps back to near normal at some point. Give us a few days with temps in the 40s or 50s before February Nina climo kicks in and we roast the rest of the winter.
 
It’s definitely not a torch. Wasn’t implying that. Its largely AN for a good chunk of the conus.


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This is pretty mild considering the coolest day among 18 is still degree above average, at least for here.

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I am a person of hope. And I’m gonna be honest. I don’t like the progressiveness of the pattern, the pac trough to far east so flow is sped up, but you gotta like the hints and subtle trends of something around the 50/50 region/lower Atlantic heights around the second week of jan 980898A6-4C24-4BD1-A262-E4D1CCF26BAD.pngB6FC65EA-21F3-4F1F-B228-4941E0AF24A5.png
 
Yes we know and I get it, but look at the next 15 days??? Lots of rain and barely getting to 30 for a couple of nights.
Again, this was known for a while that the pattern would relax for around 10-15 days. But trying to cancel winter on the 2nd day of January is DUMB. We get snow and ice in even some of the worst patterns and we get blanked even during the best of patterns ie a week ago. And these models are not even close to their best. They have major swings even in the short and medium range. There also very rarely is wall to wall torch or cold and we will flip back cold at some point. Right now that looks somewhere between the 15th-29th and that happens to be peak climo. Even if we don't get snow it's not the end of the world, we live in the south. Hell I live in one of the best places for winter weather outside of the mountains in the south and even I go winters where the most I get is some backside snow that tops the grass or a 31 degree rain with shiny tree tops like in the 19-20 and 20-21 winters. But again, cancelling winter and snow with 2 1/2 months left in climo is just whining and has zero scientifical/meteorological support.
 
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
We thought the 2nd half of January was going to be a lock on the cold. So there’s no certainty that February is “lost”
 
Some times your to far south

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And some times you to far north

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It is crazy how the past decade or so w e have seen places further south than NC get snow before we do and end up getting more snow, outside of the mountains that is. You would think we would be far enough north to get snow more often than we do. I think the wind off the Atlantic really screws us up a lot.
 
Again, this was known for a while that the pattern would relax for around 10-15 days. But trying to cancel winter on the 2nd day of January is DUMB. We get snow and ice in even some of the worst patterns and we get blanked even during the best of patterns ie a week ago. And these models are not even close to their best. They have major swings even in the short and medium range. There also very rarely is wall to wall torch or cold and we will flip back cold at some point. Right now that looks somewhere between the 15th-29th and that happens to be peak climo. Even if we don't get snow it's not the end of the world, we live in the south. Hell I live in one of the best places for winter weather outside of the mountains in the south and even I go winters where the most I get is some backside snow that tops the grass or a 31 degree rain with shiny tree tops like in the 19-20 and 20-21 winters. But again, cancelling winter and snow with 2 1/2 months left in climo is just whining and has zero scientifical/meteorological support.
Agree whole heartily,
Models were never meant to be the forecast,
Only a tool used to help forecast.
I get that meteorologist use it as such.
In other words no model no matter the score is the gospel.
What their showing today will surely change next run or 5.
Also I get using analogs.
But at Bastardi stated,
No 2 years r the same no matter how closely they may resemble.
I'll punt in April.
Until then keep hope alive.
 
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.
I definitely wouldn’t worry if I averaged 12 inches a year. I average 6 inches a year and I can usually count on at least 2 inches minimum every season. 2017 was the only winter here where I got less then an inch of snow. In fact I don’t think I got even .10 inches that season. That winter was an absolute dumpster fire torch. I Maybe had 2-3 flurry events and that was it. I think everyone that year experienced what winter would be like if they lived 150 miles south of where they actually lived.
 
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.

This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
 
This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
This. I’ll go w Charlotte’s streak. We always will have some sort of frozen precip. Long way to go.
 
This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
Only one real hurricane. Hurricane season sucked, this winter will end up sucking and spring will suck only thing we can count on is summer heat.
 
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Despite mostly cloudy skies and late morning / midday showers, DFW tied the record high of 78°F today (previously set in 2004).

Also, as long as temps stay at/above 64°F through Midnight, the record high minimum of 63°F will also be broken.
 
You can bet anytime we're on the right of the circle we'll torch. But by looking at the long range apparently being on the left side in the cold phases doesn't mean much. It's hard to know what works for cold and snow here anymore. View attachment 129174
The MJO is honestly why I’m expecting to see some changes in the modeling in the coming days. The MJO has been the number 1 index that has driven our weather during this 3 year Niña. If it does go into phases 7 and 8 like what is being shown, I would be surprised if we don’t have at least a 10-15 day window of opportunity in the 2nd half of January
 
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.

On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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I recommend searching and reading Webberweather53's posts on 3rd year La Nina's and La Nina's in general. You will find your answer.
 
On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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They are going off of Nina climo. Typically Februarys are a torch.
 
On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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While a SER is always favored .. my rule of thumb is never count an entire winter month out a month in advance.

Even in a dominantly warm month you can get periods of favorability for some cold and snow events it’s just harder to come by in general
 
I recommend searching and reading Webberweather53's posts on 3rd year La Nina's and La Nina's in general. You will find your answer.
La Niña + reinforcement by the MJO (probably returns to the Maritime Continent & West Pacific in early Feb or so) + AGW. I’d love to be wrong here, but the deck looks to be stacked against us in Feb, certainly more than it is now in mid-late January. Even still, we’re struggling to get a good pattern out of this
 
La Niña + reinforcement by the MJO (probably returns to the Maritime Continent & West Pacific in early Feb or so) + AGW. I’d love to be wrong here, but the deck looks to be stacked against us in Feb, certainly more than it is now in mid-late January. Even still, we’re struggling to get a good pattern out of this
I believe that you are correct about things being stacked against us in February. However I was curious if you have looked to see if there is any correlation between a dying Niña, like we appear to be going through now, and how things react in the 2nd half of the winter and early spring. I know that off the top of my head, I can remember both that after the torch that was February 2018, March was quite cold and I believe we had several near misses in terms of snow potential.
 
You can bet anytime we're on the right of the circle we'll torch. But by looking at the long range apparently being on the left side in the cold phases doesn't mean much. It's hard to know what works for cold and snow here anymore. View attachment 129174
Meh, I disagree. The left side in the circle is by far the coldest of phases. It is hard to have a torch with the MJO in the good phases. I believe either the models will cave or the MJO will not move into the left side of the circle.
 
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