• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2023

If you want to get a good idea of what this pattern potentially has in store for us through mid month, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to look at the Decembers of strong-super El Niños (1877, 1888, 1896, 1902, 1905, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2009, & 2015). Not a complete shutout overall, but in general it’s not a good pattern for a big snow & it’s certainly a pretty mild & wet look for most.
 
Definitely see the PV getting its circulation bashed up by late first week of January. Question is what transpires afterwards and is it a hiccup by rosby waves where it tightens right back up or one thats keeps it suppressed for a few weeks from 500mb on down. Step 1 is getting the PV disrupted. Cant have it wound up tight, sitting right on top of the pole.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you want to get a good idea of what this pattern potentially has in store for us through mid month, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to look at the Decembers of strong-super El Niños (1877, 1888, 1896, 1902, 1905, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2009, & 2015). Not a complete shutout overall, but in general it’s not a good pattern for a big snow & it’s certainly a pretty mild & wet look for most.
Click to expand...
what happened in december 2015? was that a warm month for us? just curious
 
BullCityWx said:
December 2015 was very, very warm as I recall. Christmas Day actually had a dewpoint near 70F. Very wet and warm.
Click to expand...
*mask off* i played dumb here to illicit this exact response and make a point that we will be getting through a less than stellar pattern

core memory this month is dews in the low 70s in wilmington on christmas eve just as you said, and it felt like the whole month was like this
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you want to get a good idea of what this pattern potentially has in store for us through mid month, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to look at the Decembers of strong-super El Niños (1877, 1888, 1896, 1902, 1905, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2009, & 2015). Not a complete shutout overall, but in general it’s not a good pattern for a big snow & it’s certainly a pretty mild & wet look for most.
Click to expand...

Looked through that list and only two T winters. If the general idea holds, hopefully we just need to be patient.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you want to get a good idea of what this pattern potentially has in store for us through mid month, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to look at the Decembers of strong-super El Niños (1877, 1888, 1896, 1902, 1905, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2009, & 2015). Not a complete shutout overall, but in general it’s not a good pattern for a big snow & it’s certainly a pretty mild & wet look for most.
Click to expand...
Heels won the title in 4 of those years!
 
ILMRoss said:
*mask off* i played dumb here to illicit this exact response and make a point that we will be getting through a less than stellar pattern

core memory this month is dews in the low 70s in wilmington on christmas eve just as you said, and it felt like the whole month was like this
Click to expand...
That's a good point because January 2016 was honestly not bad.

I think I have PTSD from that December, though.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you want to get a good idea of what this pattern potentially has in store for us through mid month, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to look at the Decembers of strong-super El Niños (1877, 1888, 1896, 1902, 1905, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2009, & 2015). Not a complete shutout overall, but in general it’s not a good pattern for a big snow & it’s certainly a pretty mild & wet look for most.
Click to expand...
JFM doesn't look too great but is better than December.
1957-12-010.png
1957-12-3130.png1958-01-3060.png1958-03-0190.png
 
BullCityWx said:
That's a good point because January 2016 was honestly not bad.

I think I have PTSD from that December, though.
Click to expand...
completely get it, i def wondered if we'd see measurable snow that winter around new years. i want to say it shows how the narrative can turn, although if i remember right if if that mega-storm didn't happen, we may remember 2015-2016 in similar standing to 2011-2012
 
iGRXY said:
Remember when it looked like we were going to be cold through early January a couple of weeks ago and how quickly it changes? The “pattern” appears to be lasting in 2 week spurts and has been going back to September. Until that breaks, I’m expecting a change by the 15th. We will be in peak or just after climo as well. Besides we never have wall to wall warmth or cold in winter so you should expect spells or above and below average temps.
Click to expand...
The 2 week on/2 week off pattern really has been the overall pattern since about mid September, and I really think that’s just how things will likely shake out the rest of the winter. I really think that we can throw out everything we know about LaNina backgrounds because this just isn’t acting like a LaNina fall/winter.
 
Chazwin said:
The 2 week on/2 week off pattern really has been the overall pattern since about mid September, and I really think that’s just how things will likely shake out the rest of the winter. I really think that we can throw out everything we know about LaNina backgrounds because this just isn’t acting like a LaNina fall/winter.
Click to expand...
It hasn’t acted like a La Niña for the past 3 winters.
 
BullCityWx said:

Looked through that list and only two T winters. If the general idea holds, hopefully we just need to be patient.
Click to expand...

I didn't research the list, but seeing 1982 reminded me of the great winter storm Jan 12 of that year. A couple of days in the single digits, and a big ice storm in Bham. I was at Livingston University, about 120 miles southwest, and we got over 8 inches of snow that hung around for several days. A dream come true for college kids!
 
it’s worth noting that nino influenced patterns or ones similar offers up less variable weather then Nina’s. We have been seeing a pattern the last 2 months that you’d typically see with a nina with a persistent and dominating North Pacific ridge and +TNH. changes week to week is positioning of the NPAC ridge influence our weather bigly. Strong pacific jet and its attendant GOAK/AK trough offers less variable/more stagnant weather and favors pacific air in the conus, meaning most likely warm - coolest being pacific polar origin, meaning the looks we been seeing the last couple of weeks are likely done for the time being until we see a return to a more nina influenced subseasonal pattern, but the pattern will become more steady for now.
 
Last edited:
Myfrotho704_ said:
it’s worth noting that nino influenced patterns or ones similar offers up less variable weather then Nina’s. We have been seeing a pattern the last 2 months that you’d typically see with a nina with a persistent and dominating North Pacific ridge and +TNH. changes week to week is positioning of the NPAC ridge influence our weather bigly. Strong pacific jet and its attendant GOAK/AK trough offers less variable/more stagnant weather and favors pacific air in the conus, meaning most likely warm - coolest being pacific polar origin, meaning the looks we been seeing the last couple of weeks are likely done, and the pattern will become more steady.
Click to expand...
Those are good points, but I doubt it locks in for all that long. It'll take some time to come out of, but unless we have continuous unfavorable tropical forcing or strong nino-like SSTs or a super wound up SPV, we'll be more variable than it looks right now....over the longer time frames, I mean.
 
I would take another clipper. It works out better for my area. These were from Tuesday morning.

322513707_3070284839936410_966646778803316847_n.jpg


322368615_1110145202992595_1402120863792014278_n.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top