Pattern Jammin January 2023

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah this could work during fros torch. This is that polar pacific air. Yes it’s not overwhelming cold but in January this is cold enough stuff that we can certainly work with. Models have trended to some sort of low pressure moving like this transiently off the coast.. it’s interesting and something to watch on models as we move forward. But don’t let anyone tell you we still can’t score even during periods that appear not as favorable. (I still believe we’re generally mild through January 15th but doesn’t mean we still can’t make something happen)

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We’re also going to end up potentially with a flooding threat with this warm period coming up. The set up screams training rain storm for someone in the SE

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 128839

It will change at 06z, but classic Southern Slider (Dec 2018, Feb 2004), pattern on the 00z GFS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The ensembles generally look worse, remember ensembles ensembles ensembles

 

[Shaggy]

NBM is showing over 5" of rain for the first 10 days of January over most of the southeast U.S. That's good news for aquifers and reservoirs.

Yeah the NBM also had an average of 4 inches of snow for me for the Xmas cold snap.

 

[weatherfide]

The ensembles generally look worse, remember ensembles ensembles ensemblesView attachment 128847View attachment 128849

You mean worse for cold? I thought you were on the warminista train now? I'm so confused...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You mean worse for cold? I thought you were on the warminista train now? I'm so confused...

I meant worse for cold lovers, I’m not a cold lover, but rather a snow lover and warm lover

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

No end in sight

 

[lexxnchloe]

No end in sight
View attachment 128855

Maybe that will happen and no one can accuse me of being a snow optimist but usually when the US east of the rockies is warm then Alaska and the west are colder than normal. No way that verifies. Either its warm here and cold in Alaska or it will be the opposite but not both.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I meant worse for cold lovers, I’m not a cold lover, but rather a snow lover and warm lover

I am going to break this as gently but directly as I know how; these two things do not go together. You're going to have a lot of frustration ahead!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I am going to break this as gently but directly as I know how; these two things do not go together. You're going to have a lot of frustration ahead!

When I see a snow pattern, I’ll bite. I don’t see one through 384 on ensembles. so bring on warmth !!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You know it’s a bad pattern, when this is your snow mean heading into early/mid January

 

[Rain Cold]

You know it’s a bad pattern, when this is your snow mean heading into early/mid January View attachment 128860

It doesn't do us much good when it's loaded with snowy members either. But, like you, I'm not expecting much in the way of wintry threats for the next couple of weeks. Fortunately for us cold lovers, our weather prediction tools don't seem to have a lot of skill past 2 or 3 weeks. So, it's entirely possible that we could start seeing signs of a change back in the next few days. Plus, we really haven't had any sustained 6 week patterns in a good while. I doubt that changes all of a sudden.

 

[iGRXY]

It doesn't do us much good when it's loaded with snowy members either. But, like you, I'm not expecting much in the way of wintry threats for the next couple of weeks. Fortunately for us cold lovers, our weather prediction tools don't seem to have a lot of skill past 2 or 3 weeks. So, it's entirely possible that we could start seeing signs of a change back in the next few days. Plus, we really haven't had any sustained 6 week patterns in a good while. I doubt that changes all of a sudden.

Remember when it looked like we were going to be cold through early January a couple of weeks ago and how quickly it changes? The “pattern” appears to be lasting in 2 week spurts and has been going back to September. Until that breaks, I’m expecting a change by the 15th. We will be in peak or just after climo as well. Besides we never have wall to wall warmth or cold in winter so you should expect spells or above and below average temps.

 

[Arcc]

Honestly looking through the EPS members around day 11-12 doesn’t look that bad with lots of very nice looks at 500mb albeit probably progressive. Throw out the mean though as it’s useless in this time frame.

 

[Falldreams]

When I see a snow pattern, I’ll bite. I don’t see one through 384 on ensembles. so bring on warmth !!

I don’t think your opinion is weird at all. I’m in total agreement. We are going above freezing for the first time in 6 days at the house here and it mostly sucked…dry, cold, below zero, pipes freezing…and no snow. Yuck…give me snow above warmth but not just cold.

 

[Avalanche]

I don’t think your opinion is weird at all. I’m in total agreement. We are going above freezing for the first time in 6 days at the house here and it mostly sucked…dry, cold, below zero, pipes freezing…and no snow. Yuck…give me snow above warmth but not just cold.

Bingo. You and Fro are my climate heroes.

 

[Webberweather53]

A very warm pattern becoming progressively more seasonable-slightly BN as we approach mid month. Not a good one for snow for anyone on the board unless you’re in the western-southwestern US. This is about what I expected to see during the first half of January

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I don’t think your opinion is weird at all. I’m in total agreement. We are going above freezing for the first time in 6 days at the house here and it mostly sucked…dry, cold, below zero, pipes freezing…and no snow. Yuck…give me snow above warmth but not just cold.

Yep exactly, the reason why I was frothing over the last pattern was because, it had the ability to produce snow, but I didn’t. Some good patterns just don’t produce. the cold was absolutely miserable, it was cool for the 1st day but I got old quick. I mean who enjoys that sort of stuff ? The outdoors is essential to one’s health, vitamins and just mental health. and 60 degree weather is perfect outdoor weather. Next week and a half looks good for that. I’m happy. When I start seeing a look that supports snow on ensembles, I start to post the maps everyone loves again.