• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2023

Worth noting the jan 2016 winter storm occured because the GOAK trough backed off enough/built heights out west after that intense pac jet regime dec 2015, and that allowed a true SE can vortex with arctic air rooted to it to develop, then the Aleutian/GOAK trough essentially “handed off” a shortwave that would eventually become a eastern Us bowling ball and we had a deep cold CAD due to the 50/50. I’d start becoming excited if modeling starts showing a 50/50 low - B.C to Rockies ridge spike with the active pacific waves going underneath and a backed off GOAK trough, almost like a KU look but just without the true -NAO of course. Jan 2016 blizzard was a true KU storm and had a anchored 50/50, so timing is gonna have to work, that’s the type of way I can see this pattern rapidly improving from its looks right now
You can see the comparison to then and what’s showing up on modeling. The lack of a true 50/50 low right now 0D3881BC-DCCC-47A1-97A0-7CDBE247D7AC.gif62C485E5-3EA1-40AC-B855-02A31A68C471.png
 
-Word from JB 12-28-22
I remain confident that a combined negative AO and positive PNA will result in a colder, stormy pattern for the southern and eastern United States. I think there's a good chance the other teleconnections come in line, and if they do, the cold will be more widespread.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
-Word from JB 12-28-22
I remain confident that a combined negative AO and positive PNA will result in a colder, stormy pattern for the southern and eastern United States. I think there's a good chance the other teleconnections come in line, and if they do, the cold will be more widespread.
Click to expand...
Typically, I would dismiss JB saying this as a warm pattern is about to start as him trying to play to his clients in the Natural Gas industry. However, I have to agree with what he says here. The PNA looks to be holding steadily positive for the foreseeable future and the AO is showing absolutely no signs of going positive for anytime… in fact it looks like it’s going to strongly negative again I’m the 2nd week of January.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep exactly, the reason why I was frothing over the last pattern was because, it had the ability to produce snow, but I didn’t. Some good patterns just don’t produce. the cold was absolutely miserable, it was cool for the 1st day but I got old quick. I mean who enjoys that sort of stuff ? The outdoors is essential to one’s health, vitamins and just mental health. and 60 degree weather is perfect outdoor weather. Next week and a half looks good for that. I’m happy. When I start seeing a look that supports snow on ensembles, I start to post the maps everyone loves again.
Click to expand...
You are so right. Lots of opportunities left but the warm up is welcome in the absence of snow.
 
Regarding the discussion on the last couple winters (both La Ninas), if we look at the Dec-Mar averaged 500mb pattern, both winters had more La Nina characteristics than El Nino.


Here is Dec-Mar 2021-2022. The prominent Aleutian / Gulf of AK ridge the reaches poleward into AK & the Bering Strait and the above normal heights in the SE are both La Nina features
JG8s2w1.png


The 2021-2022 winter pattern compares favorably to the patterns from the La Nina winters of 2017-2018 and 2008-2009
K4do2DE.png

CjPWpzB.png



Here is Dec-Mar 2020-2021. In this case, we see an Aleutian / Gulf of AK ridge that is flat (displaced to the south) with low pressure in AK (+EPO), along with a -NAO.
xP0Mcpi.png


The 2020-2021 winter pattern compares favorably to the pattern from the La Nina winter of 2005-2006. It's not an exact match, but there are similar features overall.
feO7eU5.png



In neither of these cases (2021-2022 & 2020-2021) do we see El Nino characteristics in the pattern averaged for the full winter (i.e. El Nino characteristics would be Aleutian Low / +PNA / Below normal heights across the south). That's not so say that every El Nino delivers those characteristics, but I'm just drawing the distinction here


The upcoming pattern does have Strong to Super El Nino characteristics to it of Gulf of AK low / trough, above normal heights over Central and Eastern Canada, and extended Pac Jet. But again, I think this will end up being just a segment of this winter and not something that will sustain itself into the base pattern for the full winter. Time will tell
cqFNDkB.png

GnDuPDq.png
 
griteater said:
Regarding the discussion on the last couple winters (both La Ninas), if we look at the Dec-Mar averaged 500mb pattern, both winters had more La Nina characteristics than El Nino.


Here is Dec-Mar 2021-2022. The prominent Aleutian / Gulf of AK ridge the reaches poleward into AK & the Bering Strait and the above normal heights in the SE are both La Nina features
JG8s2w1.png


The 2021-2022 winter pattern compares favorably to the patterns from the La Nina winters of 2017-2018 and 2008-2009
K4do2DE.png

CjPWpzB.png



Here is Dec-Mar 2020-2021. In this case, we see an Aleutian / Gulf of AK ridge that is flat (displaced to the south) with low pressure in AK (+EPO), along with a -NAO.
xP0Mcpi.png


The 2020-2021 winter pattern compares favorably to the pattern from the La Nina winter of 2005-2006. It's not an exact match, but there are similar features overall.
feO7eU5.png



In neither of these cases (2021-2022 & 2020-2021) do we see El Nino characteristics in the pattern averaged for the full winter (i.e. El Nino characteristics would be Aleutian Low / +PNA / Below normal heights across the south). That's not so say that every El Nino delivers those characteristics, but I'm just drawing the distinction here


The upcoming pattern does have Strong to Super El Nino characteristics to it of Gulf of AK low / trough, above normal heights over Central and Eastern Canada, and extended Pac Jet. But again, I think this will end up being just a segment of this winter and not something that will sustain itself into the base pattern for the full winter. Time will tell
cqFNDkB.png

GnDuPDq.png
Click to expand...
Great info. I had forgotten that ‘08-09 was a LaNina. That year definitely went against the grain of a February Niña torch. I had 10 inches of snow that winter… all of it from January 20th on.
 
griteater said:
Regarding the discussion on the last couple winters (both La Ninas), if we look at the Dec-Mar averaged 500mb pattern, both winters had more La Nina characteristics than El Nino.


Here is Dec-Mar 2021-2022. The prominent Aleutian / Gulf of AK ridge the reaches poleward into AK & the Bering Strait and the above normal heights in the SE are both La Nina features
JG8s2w1.png


The 2021-2022 winter pattern compares favorably to the patterns from the La Nina winters of 2017-2018 and 2008-2009
K4do2DE.png

CjPWpzB.png



Here is Dec-Mar 2020-2021. In this case, we see an Aleutian / Gulf of AK ridge that is flat (displaced to the south) with low pressure in AK (+EPO), along with a -NAO.
xP0Mcpi.png


The 2020-2021 winter pattern compares favorably to the pattern from the La Nina winter of 2005-2006. It's not an exact match, but there are similar features overall.
feO7eU5.png



In neither of these cases (2021-2022 & 2020-2021) do we see El Nino characteristics in the pattern averaged for the full winter (i.e. El Nino characteristics would be Aleutian Low / +PNA / Below normal heights across the south). That's not so say that every El Nino delivers those characteristics, but I'm just drawing the distinction here


The upcoming pattern does have Strong to Super El Nino characteristics to it of Gulf of AK low / trough, above normal heights over Central and Eastern Canada, and extended Pac Jet. But again, I think this will end up being just a segment of this winter and not something that will sustain itself into the base pattern for the full winter. Time will tell
cqFNDkB.png

GnDuPDq.png
Click to expand...
Good stuff man! Do you suppose there is any reason to suspect that 3rd year Ninas might not usually (and I use that term with the recognition that 3rd year Ninas are not "usual" to begin with) behave like the traditional Nina? You've researched this stuff a lot more than I have, but a fading 3rd year Nina screams curve ball to me. We may be seeing some of that now, and it is what gives me hope that we may not spend February and March swirling around in the La Nina toilet.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Outside of an hr204 ULL 38 degree snow squall for Roxboro, modeling is still pretty yuck heading into today
Click to expand...
For me .. pretty yuck would be consistent SER without even a shot at a winter event. Right now we’re dealing with a transient warm up with injections of cooler periods cold enough to produce a winter event due to it being around our peak climo. That’s pretty good to me for how trash this early January period was supposed to be. Again though I’m still not expecting anything until after the 15th so if we do somehow score before then. Hot dog!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
For me .. pretty yuck would be consistent SER without even a shot at a winter event. Right now we’re dealing with a transient warm up with injections of cooler periods cold enough to produce a winter event due to it being around our peak climo. That’s pretty good to me for how trash this early January period was supposed to be. Again though I’m still not expecting anything until after the 15th so if we do somehow score before then. Hot dog!
Click to expand...
“Transient warmup” back to being a weenie I see D7E6BCCB-5D80-41D4-8968-5CAC86FACC1E.png4CD18A72-221A-4BC1-8A8B-291FFCB7FBD1.png84CF2826-FEE8-4F74-A68B-CC15558FFF2E.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Good stuff man! Do you suppose there is any reason to suspect that 3rd year Ninas might not usually (and I use that term with the recognition that 3rd year Ninas are not "usual" to begin with) behave like the traditional Nina? You've researched this stuff a lot more than I have, but a fading 3rd year Nina screams curve ball to me. We may be seeing some of that now, and it is what gives me hope that we may not spend February and March swirling around in the La Nina toilet.
Click to expand...
If we were seeing a sort of rapid ENSO warming coming out of this La Nina, I'd be more inclined to agree with the curveball theory....but up to this point, we've remained steady state with La Nina when you view SSTs (1st chart) and the 850mb wind pattern in the tropics (2nd chart)

I think each case is a bit unique though. I do think we have a risk of the MJO becoming unfavorable as we work into February this winter just based on this year's timing (threat for more of an Aleutian ridge / -PNA pattern). Long way out though

TH6g3By.png


UNWT50E.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top