Cold air injection looking weak hereGFS looking really progressive so far
It’s so far from the other big models and it’s very progressive. I know the pattern is progressive but Not sure about it tbhCold air injection looking weak here
So far this year GFS has looked great with potentials when all other models did not, and we see how that turned out. So now all other models looking good and GFS not, is a positive to meIt’s so far from the other big models and it’s very progressive. I know the pattern is progressive but Not sure about it tbh
It looks like the GFS is a bit alone with wanting to run waviness thru Alberta and Saskatchewan which mucks up our confluence and high pressure over SE Canada, and tracks the low too far north, via a disjointed wave. Your ICON images were nice with all of that in contrast.GFS looking really progressive so far
Eh it’s basically the same thing euro showed just a bit less cold air. This is pretty much exactly what we want right nowCanadian closed off and went full on ULL which is cool but no confluence this run. Changes the entire setup.
Yea we need the earlier solutions. Timing is the trick here, as alwaysDoesn’t help we slowed the southern wave this CMC run View attachment 129397
Yeah typically we do, and that’s what encourages the transfer/cut, but this time we have way more upstream ridging/lower heights over the Atlantic, which encourages more of a hybrid lookNerd question. Usually when we see a MillerB don’t we have ridging coming up and in off the Atlantic causing a transfer over the apps and off the coast? We’ve got ridging nudging in north to south here with a wave undercutting. Seems atypical to me.View attachment 129399
Id like to think the progressive nature of the pattern is basically forcing this energy off the coast and forcing that transfer to happen not in a typical miller B fashion but the end product remains the same. Not all storms happen the same way it’s more of a blueprint. We will see how we do with thisNerd question. Usually when we see a MillerB don’t we have ridging coming up and in off the Atlantic causing a transfer over the apps and off the coast? We’ve got ridging nudging in north to south here with a wave undercutting. Seems atypical to me.View attachment 129399
Too much confluence now, squashedThe 00z Euro is coming in hot!!
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Where we need it at this point. What does it shows?Too much confluence now, squashed
Lol going to either suppress it into the midlands or shear it to cirrus at this rate
Key here also is building heights behind the system (Rockies ridge spike) which encourages amplification and pure stream separation as well, this trend would increase the chances of what you mentioned but the ridge spike behind the S/S wave determines how amped up/south we get it.Lol going to either suppress it into the midlands or shear it to cirrus at this rate
Any chance to push the system far enough south that it's a Miller A? Seems like I remember one time in the 20 years I've been following weather models where this happened. It's was definitely during peak climo like this potential.Key here also is building heights behind the system (Rockies ridge spike) which encourages amplification and pure stream separation as well, this trend would increase the chances of what you mentioned but the ridge spike behind the S/S wave determines how amped up/south we get it.