I think that might rushing things by a few days, but I definitely think about the 12th-15th timeframe, we could be back in business. The AO is looking to take another nosedive into negative, the NAO starts to go slightly negative, PNA holds positive throughout and the MJO which goes into low amp phase 7/8.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
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We did a workup in that area before an Afghanistan deployment years ago and went through this very thing. Sun shining in a longsleeve watched it roll in like a squall. Paper plate sized flakes to start and had over 4 feet on the ground a day later. It snowed 4 days straight and we made snow caves to sleep in.
griteater
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The GFS gets split flow going as early as Jan 2 with a ridge going up in W Canada, Pac waves hitting California underneath, and Alaska mostly free of low pressure.. It holds this look thru the end of the run. Need to see that across the other model suites, but it's a look that would offer more promise
Add a week to that time frame. Rule of atmo436.
GFS shuts down the warm party after January 6th. Seemed transient there. After that, plenty of opportunities to cash in. Instead of kicking the can down the road we’re reeling the can back up the road. Id still be a bit cautious for the head fake but January 15th still looks like a solid call for good winter weather chances to return to the east.
I thought the GFS was the one that’s always wrong and caves to the rest? What’s the Euro saying?
NCSNOW
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Euro shows us back to normal by Jan 8th[corrected]. So the heatwave is over a week from today. No arctic plunge or anything. Then the next piece to figure out is what the pattern is gonna be like after Jan6. Its messy hard to discern look. Its one where you can sneak stuff(frozen) in, but temps will cause usual whalling an nashing of teeth.
Look no futher than next Friday. 6z GFS buries DC and keeps showing I-40 crowd right on the line.
Look no futher than next Friday. 6z GFS buries DC and keeps showing I-40 crowd right on the line.
NCSNOW
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Latest CFS looks like Hot Garbage for us second half Jan. Hopefully it will change, was looking pretty good. Its a gurantee we roast next 7 days,then catch a break back to normal, but who knows how long and where we go from there. Could just be transient few days. Thats my Modeology take.
This one has my attention it wouldn't take much for the I-40 crowd to cash in. Need that low to develop further south.
Big red flag here is the lack of a 50/50 low, we need that TPV in SE greenland much further SE. At best this would be an ending as snow with little/no accums outside the mountains. This doesn’t have the look of a SE system and with a WAR that strong, is likely to trend unfavorably 
True. Other models are moderating their warmer solutions. Euro last night shut the ridiculous warm down after the 6th as well
Certainly not thinking snow event here but it will bring cooler air into the region instead of those 60s. January 15th on is again where I’m eyeing legit winter weather chances to start appearing again and the pattern to get much better. Models are bringing cooler air in though earlier which is nice to see.
This is a slighty better look then weve seen the last few days. While not a 50/50 low, you have lower heights in the Atlantic, which promotes NE flow aloft and keeps the cool/marginal airmass in place, parhaps for a dynamical cooling type of setup. It’s better then a WAR
And with it being January now we at least have a better shot at being on the better side of marginal set ups
I still would love a 50/50 low. Take Feb 2004 for example, active pacific jet with an active southern stream, but the big difference is a 50/50 with lower heights in the Atlantic. It’s the missing key that turns it from a meh, to a great pattern 
One thing that’s dependable this winter, western troughing! I think even during the East and SE cold snap last week, it was still there in some form and I think Seattle was still getting frozen precip! Very odd pattern