Icon has a stupid strong 50/50 low at the end of its run 
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Other then a meh S/S wave (not to worried about the wave right now), that SE Canada vortex looks great this icon run and is in great position for a winter storm 
GFS looking really progressive so far
Cold air injection looking weak here
It’s so far from the other big models and it’s very progressive. I know the pattern is progressive but Not sure about it tbh
CMC remaining consistent 
So far this year GFS has looked great with potentials when all other models did not, and we see how that turned out. So now all other models looking good and GFS not, is a positive to me
It looks like the GFS is a bit alone with wanting to run waviness thru Alberta and Saskatchewan which mucks up our confluence and high pressure over SE Canada, and tracks the low too far north, via a disjointed wave. Your ICON images were nice with all of that in contrast.
Incoming on the CMC, really looking good....just hate it's still 8-9 days out
there just wasn’t any confluence there. 4 run dewpoint trend kind of showing the island GFS is stranding itself on atm. That was really an outlier run even for the GFS imo
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian closed off and went full on ULL which is cool but no confluence this run. Changes the entire setup.
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian tad latter, but like euro, bark continues.
Doesn’t help we slowed the southern wave this CMC run 
Eh it’s basically the same thing euro showed just a bit less cold air. This is pretty much exactly what we want right now
NCSNOW
Member
We got a chance, but it will be a few days before this gets sorted out. Glad its foreign models LR showing this. Before Christmas it was gfs showing frozen verse everyone else showing nada.
I don’t wanna see a perfect set up 7 days out cause changes will happen over time
NCSNOW
Member
Yea we need the earlier solutions. Timing is the trick here, as always
Need that leading 50/50 low to really bomb out and hang back if it can. Progressive setups are always tough and come with marginal cold even on their best days.
Gefs looks much better so far 
Two ways to skin this cat. Either the kicker needs go kick quicker. Or our lead wave needs to slow down. All of this is assuming absolutely nothing else changes in the next week..which it will
Nerd question. Usually when we see a MillerB don’t we have ridging coming up and in off the Atlantic causing a transfer over the apps and off the coast? We’ve got ridging nudging in north to south here with a wave undercutting. Seems atypical to me.
Really nice trend here on the gefs 
Yeah typically we do, and that’s what encourages the transfer/cut, but this time we have way more upstream ridging/lower heights over the Atlantic, which encourages more of a hybrid look
Id like to think the progressive nature of the pattern is basically forcing this energy off the coast and forcing that transfer to happen not in a typical miller B fashion but the end product remains the same. Not all storms happen the same way it’s more of a blueprint. We will see how we do with this
The 00z Euro is coming in hot!!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Too much confluence now, squashed
Where we need it at this point. What does it shows?
I mean the idea remains the same from the 12z to 00z Euro. Solid support from the EPS. The CMC had the same general look just lost a real lack of cold air push.
Meanwhile the GFS is lost. Which is nothing new. Or who knows, it could be on to something.
FWIW the CFS came in better.
0Z at hour 228:
0Z at hour 228:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Still quite a bit of spread wrt the exact low position, but the general track following the mean def looks workable to me. Really need that confluence from a decent high to the north in tandem with the 50/50 low as mentioned before while avoiding suppression at the same time. Alot to iron out here the next several days, hopefully this storm produces.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Despite the higher means and a couple nice operational runs, the storm we are tracking around day 10 still very heavily favors the mountains for snow (if anything). Doesn’t look cold enough (yet) for a big snow in the coastal plain + Piedmont.
This mornings icon run was pretty ideal with the northern stream energy coming Down from Canada 
Lol going to either suppress it into the midlands or shear it to cirrus at this rate
packfan98
Moderator
Any chance to push the system far enough south that it's a Miller A? Seems like I remember one time in the 20 years I've been following weather models where this happened. It's was definitely during peak climo like this potential.
iGRXY
Member
As Fro showed you want a nice 50/50 with the TPV dropping further south towards the US/Canadian border to get the CAA fed into the area. But if you do this we need the ridge to spike in the Rockies to help the wave dig south otherwise you shred it to pieces. Would really likely to see this develop into some type of long tracking ULL that can help generate and pull in its own cold air. Then you have to worry about the track of that to determine the snow/ice line, but we are threading the needle here anyways and that looks like the "easiest" path to success IMO.