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Pattern Jammin January 2023

bigstick10 said:
I am not the only one on here thinking the same thing, you have no room to talk wishing for warm all the time. Look at your extended maps you slather on here all the time, not a good look for winter fans.
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Most of our December featured below normal temps. I and many other said even before Christmas to get ready for nothing but warm until January 15th generally. Once we get there we will see more opportunities for cold and winter weather potential. It’s been said over and over and over again. Don’t except anything positive on models until January 15th. This warm air was all but modeled way ahead of time. We knew this was coming. I’m seeing signs in the models of a Strat warming event possibly stretching the PV along with moving into favorable MJO phases and a jet that should relax mid month giving plenty of opportunity to score again. There is a worry that February could feature warmer temps again but lots can happen between now and then and march has proven that it has to be watched as well for winter potential.
 
The next time the MJO returns to the Warm Pool will probably harken the onset of a traditional -PNA/SE ridge pattern, the complete opposite of what we're gonna see the next 2-3 weeks. Timing wise, early February still seems about right to me for this to occur, which is consistent w/ most other La Nina winters like this year, which often evolve from a cool December -> mixed January -> & eventually a mild-warm Feb in the SE and E US. Although the GEFS can be fast sometimes, this forecast below doesn't seem too unreasonable.

gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_fh168-840.gif
 
Ollie Williams said:
Very close, except the ridge centered a bit more to the west. This is the most updated map because I found a bug in my script.
View attachment 129062
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Ahhh okay, makes sense. Guess we need more of this EB0A3A0C-E303-427E-B60C-99739C1BF6AB.pngAnd those maps are awesome man. You have great talent with them.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Very close, except the ridge centered a bit more to the west. This is the most updated map because I found a bug in my script.
View attachment 129062
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Nice!

Need to give things a little more time for the circulation anomalies to retrograde west against the mean flow compared to the week 2 forecasts we’re seeing on models
 
What is the typical lag, if any, for the effects that have been correlated with the MJO’s phase to come to fruition in CONUS? Maybe Ollie or Webber could help me out with this.
 
Today has been a soaker to say the least and temps back down in the 50s. Gonna lose Wednesdays warmth to the rains as well. Sure Im not alone,but the timing messed up my 18holes today. Hopefully the Dawgs and Horned Frogs can pull it out tonight.
 
SD said:
I'm feeling a nice rain ending as mush system here
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It’s basically jan 2021 again. That was a nina that featured a strong pacific jet that month. Several close wet snow calls that month but we fell short due to marginal temps, there was 2-3 systems that ended as snow though, just didn’t accumulate well here
 
My gut feeling is we step down next week to at or slightly below normal while the PNA and NAO go where we want them to be. Seven to ten days after those setup is when we need to watch.

I don’t think it can’t snow in the interlude between now and prime time, I just don’t see it being much at all.
 
getting some different looks on the ensembles in the longer range now. Gefs and EPS look good, back the GOA trough the way we want towards the Aleutian Islands, but the CMCE isn’t the best and keeps a rather +EPO and sends the low back to Okhotsk. But not bad looks from the GEFS and EPS respectively. Still want lower heights in the Atlantic though, but if we can get connection from the TPV in Canada, like last winter, then it’s a solid pattern A572FBC2-C75B-4BFF-94F1-6338C1F2B117.pngB4030A3A-4129-45BD-A2A2-9153B3E37182.png166E45A3-5F88-45E8-9A9A-D4871F5D1AF3.png
 
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