iGRXY
Member
To be fair here, you're not going to get some big percentage when you're still 200 hours out. But the one ensemble that is the most reliable is the one with the highest probabilities and that's all we can ask right now.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
I'm glad these maps are not on any of the free sites. I have really never understood the relevance of it and how it factors the OP/ensembles percentage.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, again not to beat a beyond dead horse here, but that's also because the pattern just isn't *that* favorable for a big snowstorm outside the mountains, mainly because we don't have enough cold air on our side of the pond.
We've seen many cases where the chance of 1" of snow/ice was already >30% at this range. It's pretty clear from the ensembles and just pattern recognition over the last several days that if you want to see a big snow, your best bet is to head towards the higher elevations. Rain or ice is more likely (for now) than snow outside the mountains, even w/ an ideal storm track.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You really shouldn't be relying on operational models over ensembles this far out to begin w/.
Comparison here of the GFS and EURO at Day 7.
In addition to the much better 50/50 look off the NE coast, the other thing I'd like to see is for the ridge going up out west behind our storm wave to be more positive tilt like the EURO, compared to the more neutral tilt seen on the GFS. This, along with the farther south confluence zone over the Northeast, helps to have our storm wave over the Southern Plains to dig more to the southeast with positive tilt (EURO), vs. more neutral tilt (GFS). And this of course helps to keep the temperature profile out ahead of the wave colder.
In addition to the much better 50/50 look off the NE coast, the other thing I'd like to see is for the ridge going up out west behind our storm wave to be more positive tilt like the EURO, compared to the more neutral tilt seen on the GFS. This, along with the farther south confluence zone over the Northeast, helps to have our storm wave over the Southern Plains to dig more to the southeast with positive tilt (EURO), vs. more neutral tilt (GFS). And this of course helps to keep the temperature profile out ahead of the wave colder.
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Thanks grit, but I always hear "negative tilt" is good or is that off a pivot from the points you referenced?Comparison here of the GFS and EURO at Day 7.
In addition to the much better 50/50 look off the NE coast, the other thing I'd like to see is for the ridge going up out west behind our storm wave to be more positive tilt like the EURO, compared to the more neutral tilt seen on the GFS. This, along with the farther south confluence zone over the Northeast, helps to have our storm wave over the Southern Plains to dig more to the southeast with positive tilt (EURO), vs. more neutral tilt (GFS). This of course helps to keep the temperature profile out ahead of the wave colder.
Boone ??? some monster members in there 
For storm strength, negative tilt is good if the trough is bombing out and going negative in the right location....basically just to the south of your location. But our bigger issue in this scenario at the moment is having the cold temperatures in place. A negative tilt too early brings in warmth
iGRXY
Member
If it goes negative too soon, it goes north and it pumps the ridge out ahead of it a drives in warm air whether it be at the surface or aloft.
LickWx
Member
Go to spruce pine I’ll give you the link to the cabin I did. Might be too hard for your car tho. Have to drive up a dirt road for a mile and some very twisting backroads
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Come on up!
Yeah, it’s FWD it’s gonna be rough already, and with snow. Rough on transmission as well
Still stream separation, we need a phase for a big 50/50 low 
iGRXY
Member
Baby steps. Likely won’t get that big of a swing in one run.
Scroll through this thread from December 2019. Almost the exact same setup. *hint* *hint* we got all rain
Pattern - The Great December Dump
ULL looks weaker tho, so CAA is weaker, especially at 850mb
southernwx.com
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This GFS run not going to do it but .. it’s not far off of where the euro is.. just doesn’t have the same type of 50/50 that euro had which doesn’t allow the high to lock into place longer
I mean yeah that’s close 
NCSNOW
Member
A pos sign to look for will be if any 18z gefs ens members have preceeding wave bombing setting up our 50/50.
Side note. Check out moon coming up
Side note. Check out moon coming up
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That setup is pretty different because it had a extension of the TPV behind it/lower heights all the way back to the Great Lakes, so it sorta mucked the the damming high, this setup has higher heights over the Great Lakes
Edit wait nevermind that was early dec 2020 that I’m thinking about
This is the difference at day 4-5. Good luck lol 
This is what you want to see. Well, if your going to the mountains next weekend 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I think I will stay right here at home and get my paste bomb. Maybe not the powder snow that will be falling in Boone, but beggars can't be choosers.
Thanks fro i was curious to what it looked like up this way. I like the signals but I'm tempering my expectations till early next week.
packfan98
Moderator
I was getting ready to comment on these. Pretty good signal. Definitely the mean track was further south than 12z. Maybe this could trend to a NW of I-85 instead of just the mountains?
ATLwxfan
Member
18z GFS is very March-like. Nice parade of fronts with plenty of boomers. No blow torch but no winter.
Really think things might play out like [mention]Webberweather53 [/mention]believes.
Of course we probably get an annoyingly cold April
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Really think things might play out like [mention]Webberweather53 [/mention]believes.
Of course we probably get an annoyingly cold April
.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
With each of these runs you can see the battle to show or not to show a CAD. That's going to be the key thing to look for.
DobsonCityWx
Member
This looks more like a wet rain vs dry rain for some. Let me explain. The track and transfer seen in some of the guidance can throw a ? in the evolution of this system. The moisture field could skip some areas and screech to a halt in some of the colder spots such as West Jefferson. It’s too early to know the exact track and eastward transfer details but a lot and I mean a lot more can go wrong than right in these unfavorable patterns. The European model is nice to look at but I'm holding some reserve until next Wednesday.
BHS1975
Member
gladly take that.
Jan88
Member
iGRXY
Member
GEFS improved. Definitely has more members with snow flying around and a big dog here.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Wilkesboro is that you?.......... I will not even pretend that I understand this post.
While this may end up being the big one for mountain regions by no means do I think us piedmont dwellers are out of this. Absolutely you wanna live in the mountains right now but I think many are still “in play” with this at this range. We could very well fail out and go cold rain per usual but I’ll put 3 of my 10 eggs in this basket right now. Cause why not ??
