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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Tornadocane said:
LOL. I've missed a lot on this forum. Based on WebberWeather's expert forecast, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that ya'll are waiting for some magic window of opportunity depicted on the 300 hour GFS that might drop a 2-6" snowfall if some PAC System is able to the thread the needle by timing the deeper cold air just right with one of those two vortexes sliding along the polar jet. You got that trough sliding into the wrong positions at 250 hours on the 18z. Then there's that tropical energy that tries to get involved at 300 hours, and then a some kind of subtropical system at 384 somehow lol. If you want snow, your best bet will be near Truckee, California. They'll probably get 5-10 times your yearly average in a week. This winter is putting in some work trying to end that drought in the SW.

BTW, the SOI hit 55 this past week and then 50 the next day. Despite that particular signal, I get the impression that we're going to see a radical shift towards El Nino. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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The actual truth is nobody not even Webber knows what it’s really going to do. It’s all an educated guess. These patterns change so quickly we could wake up any day this week and see things changing in our favor. We just never know.
 
Tornadocane said:
LOL. I've missed a lot on this forum. Based on WebberWeather's expert forecast, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that ya'll are waiting for some magic window of opportunity depicted on the 300 hour GFS that might drop a 2-6" snowfall if some PAC System is able to the thread the needle by timing the deeper cold air just right with one of those two vortexes sliding along the polar jet. You got that trough sliding into the wrong positions at 250 hours on the 18z. Then there's that tropical energy that tries to get involved at 300 hours, and then a some kind of subtropical system at 384 somehow lol. If you want snow, your best bet will be near Truckee, California. They'll probably get 5-10 times your yearly average in a week. This winter is putting in some work trying to end that drought in the SW.

BTW, the SOI hit 55 this past week and then 50 the next day. Despite that particular signal, I get the impression that we're going to see a radical shift towards El Nino. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Click to expand...

Short term variations in the SOI doesn't really have any bearing on day-to-day weather here. It's probably the single worst index you could use to gauge tropical - extratropical teleconnections because it's based solely on SLP from 2 locations (in high loading areas of ENSO, but still), making it very prone to noise. It's only real utility is analyzing pre-mid 20th century ENSO.
 
1672660203932.pngModels trending towards this overrunning look. Might be a decent event for Roxboro
 
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
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Great, we can all save a lot of time not checking this board after Jan 31st.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Being sarcastic. Because that’s nowhere near a “warm pattern” looks like a classic Nino stale pattern but not a warm pattern
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No doubt Its as stale looking as far the eye can see on models. Im trying to find a way a Cold HP can slide in the slot at just the right time for my area and they just arent there yet. Only way I can see this pattern producing any frozen for my location cause as youve explained well,the cold just isnt quite there. Gonna have to get from the NE whether by a big CAD HP or 50/50 confluence.
 
NCSNOW said:
No doubt Its as stale looking as far the eye can see on models. Im trying to find a way a Cold HP can slide in the slot at just the right time for my area and they just arent there yet. Only way I can see this pattern producing any frozen for my location cause as youve explained well,the cold just isnt quite there. Gonna have to get from the NE whether by a big CAD HP or 50/50 confluence.
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Takes the pacific trough/GOAK backing off enough and raising heights in central/western Canada to allow some northern stream energy to dive down and phase with a prior pacific wave right to our NE to make things interesting and have a marginal but enough of a cold air feed. But for now the GOAK trough is too far east and too strong. Main things we need to look for is - pac/GOAK trough trending further west, ridge axis further west, ridge axis in Canada stronger/sharper and more positively tilted and further west to try and introduce a colder piece of N/S energy, then a pacific wave phasing the with energy close by (NE would prob have to win), so it can bomb and then become confluence/a 50/50 with a marginal, but enough of a cold source for us. Models have perhaps tried hinting at it around the 10-12th, but remain to progressive for anything
 
The SubX multi-model ensemble keeps the El Nino gravy train going into mid-late January w/ some semblance of a +PNA. Not a great pattern verbatim though, but probably the best we're gonna see before this Aleutian trough retrogrades even more & allows the -PNA/SE ridge to become re-established sometime near the end of January or early February.

MME_zg_500.png

MME_zg_500Prb.png

MME_tas_NA.png

MME_pr_NA.png
 
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.
 
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