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Pattern Jammin January 2023

LukeBarrette said:
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.
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I definitely wouldn’t worry if I averaged 12 inches a year. I average 6 inches a year and I can usually count on at least 2 inches minimum every season. 2017 was the only winter here where I got less then an inch of snow. In fact I don’t think I got even .10 inches that season. That winter was an absolute dumpster fire torch. I Maybe had 2-3 flurry events and that was it. I think everyone that year experienced what winter would be like if they lived 150 miles south of where they actually lived.
 
LukeBarrette said:
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.
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This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
 
Brent said:
This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
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This. I’ll go w Charlotte’s streak. We always will have some sort of frozen precip. Long way to go.
 
Brent said:
This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
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Only one real hurricane. Hurricane season sucked, this winter will end up sucking and spring will suck only thing we can count on is summer heat.
 
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Despite mostly cloudy skies and late morning / midday showers, DFW tied the record high of 78°F today (previously set in 2004).

Also, as long as temps stay at/above 64°F through Midnight, the record high minimum of 63°F will also be broken.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You can bet anytime we're on the right of the circle we'll torch. But by looking at the long range apparently being on the left side in the cold phases doesn't mean much. It's hard to know what works for cold and snow here anymore. View attachment 129174
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The MJO is honestly why I’m expecting to see some changes in the modeling in the coming days. The MJO has been the number 1 index that has driven our weather during this 3 year Niña. If it does go into phases 7 and 8 like what is being shown, I would be surprised if we don’t have at least a 10-15 day window of opportunity in the 2nd half of January
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
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On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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HurricaneSolomon said:
On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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I recommend searching and reading Webberweather53's posts on 3rd year La Nina's and La Nina's in general. You will find your answer.
 
HurricaneSolomon said:
On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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They are going off of Nina climo. Typically Februarys are a torch.
 
HurricaneSolomon said:
On a serious note how do we know for certain February is lost? I truly ask because I don’t have access to the modeling that some have and even if I did my knowledge of how to read them would be limited… but I remember when Texas had that cold snap in 2021 that cold was originally forecast to be further east and even run down through the Carolinas. In other words as quickly as it was thought Texas would be much warmer all of the sudden they got the cold instead. Is possible we truthfully aren’t sure about February being warmer?


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While a SER is always favored .. my rule of thumb is never count an entire winter month out a month in advance.

Even in a dominantly warm month you can get periods of favorability for some cold and snow events it’s just harder to come by in general
 
weatherfide said:
I recommend searching and reading Webberweather53's posts on 3rd year La Nina's and La Nina's in general. You will find your answer.
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La Niña + reinforcement by the MJO (probably returns to the Maritime Continent & West Pacific in early Feb or so) + AGW. I’d love to be wrong here, but the deck looks to be stacked against us in Feb, certainly more than it is now in mid-late January. Even still, we’re struggling to get a good pattern out of this
 
Webberweather53 said:
La Niña + reinforcement by the MJO (probably returns to the Maritime Continent & West Pacific in early Feb or so) + AGW. I’d love to be wrong here, but the deck looks to be stacked against us in Feb, certainly more than it is now in mid-late January. Even still, we’re struggling to get a good pattern out of this
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I believe that you are correct about things being stacked against us in February. However I was curious if you have looked to see if there is any correlation between a dying Niña, like we appear to be going through now, and how things react in the 2nd half of the winter and early spring. I know that off the top of my head, I can remember both that after the torch that was February 2018, March was quite cold and I believe we had several near misses in terms of snow potential.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You can bet anytime we're on the right of the circle we'll torch. But by looking at the long range apparently being on the left side in the cold phases doesn't mean much. It's hard to know what works for cold and snow here anymore. View attachment 129174
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Meh, I disagree. The left side in the circle is by far the coldest of phases. It is hard to have a torch with the MJO in the good phases. I believe either the models will cave or the MJO will not move into the left side of the circle.
 
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