• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2023

I'd keep a sleepy eye on early next week-mid week. Euro wasn't to far off with spitting some frozen graupel across NC early next week: Appears the models want to drive some NS energy down, Euro Miller B's of Carolina coast and buries New England at the end. Its grasping for straws.
 
Just a reminder, we should have a 6-12 hour window on or about January 28th to score. Then, after a record-shattering February torch, we will likely see another short window toward the end of March or early April. Given that we still have those one or two shots left, it's way too early for weather weenies to throw in the towel right now.
 
NCSNOW said:
They will get up sloped within a 150 hours. Not a synoptic event, which may be what you are referring to. The northern mtns of NC and western slopes in NC have already scored a few inches, had white ground over Christmas. So the ski resort areas haven't been shutout They are however running way below normal, no doubt
Click to expand...
Dude it's been brutal up here. We've only had two events the first was a dusting and around Christmas we got a 1in.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Web, could you elaborate please?
Click to expand...

The only realistic chance we have to buck this forecast is get more -EPO than expected. Possible I guess especially if we get a legit SSWE somehow to anchor some positive height anomalies over the polar cap, but that scenario seems unlikely & I am not holding my breath for it
 
Last edited:
ajr said:
If the February torch comes, aside from the small snow in December, it seems there’s a real chance the mountain ski resorts essentially blank for real snowfall this season. At least January looks like it will be a blank. Has that ever happened?
Click to expand...
usually i would also preach optimism but I have some buddies that have been to wintergreen and reported a pretty pitiful mountain, and that was after the cold shot. if january is even neutral; feb will have a ton of ground to make up to make it even an *ok* ski season
 
Problem is, we need relaxation of the pacific trough because the ridge spike gets pushed east, it forces the energy to dig in the GOM and -tilt to far east. Shoves everything away. We need the centroid the ridge out west to be over cali-Rockies when our energy digs 5A601839-55D4-4F47-B359-A54AEAE6ED71.png
 
weatherfide said:
So either the MJO forecasting method is going to be wrong or the ensembles are. Whichever one fails, I really hope we learn about why the indicators behaved opposite of each other.
Click to expand...
It will certainly be interesting to see which is going to blink… the MJO or the ensembles. I remember in February 2021 how all of the ensembles were in agreement of wanting to bring arctic cold and winter storm chances east of the Apps a week to 10 days out, but the MJO was showing what we knew should be a phase that would promote a strong SER. Obviously we all know that once we got to within the 7 day mark the models came around to the MJO. Now obviously there’s not nearly the intensity of a cold air mass that we were dealing with then, but like I said yesterday, if the MJO is being modeled correctly and along with the AO going into the tank again, I would expect those of us in the western and central Carolinas and areas back to the west from the I-20 corridor and north to have a 10-14 day window for legitimate winter storm chances. After that I think we have to deal with the SER becoming dominant again
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top