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Pattern Jammin January 2023

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
As a matter of fact Charlotte has did it 18 times. A trace is a snowless winter in my book.
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I am in the same camp, a trace is not an event; I need at least some accumulation, enough to see things white and run around in a little; at least a healthy dusting. GSP has 15 such years with only a trace recorded plus 2011-2012, the only year ever without a trace. Even AVL has two years with only a trace recorded and so far this year has not recorded a trace. Not looking good this year but still a long ways to go, keeping fingers crossed!
 
SD said:
It probably snows on the back of that look at least
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The thing that sucks is these things always model that backend wheel of moisture way far south and as it gets closer it turns out there’s no backend moisture except for flurries in Winterplace WV
 
If you’re headed to the mountains (like me) next weekend, forget the 50/50. What we want to see, is higher heights behind the storm, the more digging, the more amplification the upper level low is gonna get, the more energy we dump into the shortwave, the heavier/longer lasting the Nw flow snow could be and a deeper ULL, which would pull in more CAA. But Even the high country starts out as rain at first, but would eventually switch over to snow.
 
FWIW, the GFS has trended all day toward a phase off the NE coast. 00Z didn't quite get it done, but it was really pretty close to blowing up the much-needed 50/50 low on day 5.
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Tarheel1 said:
Ooof, doink, fail tuba! This Western Trough pattern has been relentless this winter, sans about 2 weeks! Looks like January is toast! View attachment 129642
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Man. if Robert is giving up on it you know we're in a sad state, he doesn't throw the towel until he's alone in the building and the lights have been turned off.
 
06z EPS looking better, esp on the onset for the mountains. Colder mid levels, would have probably boded well for later, hey @SD if there’s support at 12z still for the mountains can I make a mountain storm thread, since there’s so many people going next weekend ?
 
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Not how I wanted peak climo to go this year. But hey on the bright side next year will be a nino and I prefer that over these Nina's.
 
Snownut said:
Why is GFS showing that much snow outside of the mountains even across upstate? Nothing is really showing snow, if anything it looks like ice across upper upstate

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Upstate gonna blank with this one. I’m an idiot though so don’t listen to me. But they’re going to blank
 
Snownut said:
Why is GFS showing that much snow outside of the mountains even across upstate? Nothing is really showing snow, if anything it looks like ice across upper upstate

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It shows ice as snow accumulation in its algorithm .. don’t expect anything in the upstate .. no 50/50 means no fun
 
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