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Pattern Jammin January 2023

2
Chazwin said:
It will certainly be interesting to see which is going to blink… the MJO or the ensembles. I remember in February 2021 how all of the ensembles were in agreement of wanting to bring arctic cold and winter storm chances east of the Apps a week to 10 days out, but the MJO was showing what we knew should be a phase that would promote a strong SER. Obviously we all know that once we got to within the 7 day mark the models came around to the MJO. Now obviously there’s not nearly the intensity of a cold air mass that we were dealing with then, but like I said yesterday, if the MJO is being modeled correctly and along with the AO going into the tank again, I would expect those of us in the western and central Carolinas and areas back to the west from the I-20 corridor and north to have a 10-14 day window for legitimate winter storm chances. After that I think we have to deal with the SER becoming dominant again
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My money is to stick with the MJO. I can't remember a time where it ever lost to the models.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Wait til AK flips cold. If y’all think this pattern can’t get any worse, it can. I assure you.
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When that happens, the ridge will be so strong in the east that all of the tornadoes will be in the plains and Texas. We will be basking in 75 to 80 degree, sunny days and 55 degrees at night, but dry. Right?
 
Bham 99 said:
2

My money is to stick with the MJO. I can't remember a time where it ever lost to the models.
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Agreed. Ensemble means are a useful tool, but we’ve gotta remember they are only as good as the members going into them, and just showing an average of those members. The average can be skewed by a handful of members showing a similar outcome (which could be right or wrong). At this point, there is still a good bit of spread 10-15 days out, when the favorable MJO would be starting to have an influence. What I’m looking for right now are positive trends (more members showing cold). Definitely looks like the EPS just threw us a bone, but it’s gotta continue in a big way in order to get some of us off the ledge.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s by no means a slam dunk looking pattern, but that’s a look that can have a very big reward.
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Yeah, very marginal pattern, but it’s a big dog sort of pattern, just with no cold. Most likely would work for the NE, but I mean it’s winter and there’s always a small chance. I would watch this one especially in the mountains, those juicy marginal pacific waves work for them more often
 
Word from JB-
January 3, 2022

I'm in a State of Confusion by the disagreement between each model's MJO and surface temperature forecasts.

Originally our idea for January was that the warm MJO signals would bring the end of winter after the colder start. The years 1951,1990, and 2006 served as analogs for this.
The analogs above are very close to the recent CFSv2 forecasts:
When I saw that the MJO is in fact staying away from the warm phases, I realized the premise was incorrect. This is why I believe the pattern will cool down significantly after the first ten days.
As I said though, the confusing part is that models' MJO forecasts are becoming stronger into cold phases, while their United States temperature forecasts continue to be warm.
All these forecasts bring us to Phase 8 by Week 2, which is a strong indicator for cold, yet surface temperature forecasts are still extremely warm.

My take is that the pattern will shift to cold, as ridging breaks down over the Eastern United States and the ridge sets up back over Western Canada. I simply don't see how we can see a warm pattern with such a strong cold signal in the MJO.



But for now either me or the models are in a State of confusion
 
Sounds like we’ve got a case of favorable MJO with unfavorable teleconnections/ lack of blocking. Which may mean we are looking to mid Feb before we really have a shot in ATL.

Upper south may luck out sooner though.


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ATLwxfan said:
Sounds like we’ve got a case of favorable MJO with unfavorable teleconnections/ lack of blocking. Which may mean we are looking to mid Feb before we really have a shot in ATL.

Upper south may luck out sooner though.


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Should be near 80 by the middle of February with lows near 60
 
Heelyes said:
Should be near 80 by the middle of February with lows near 60
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When the classic nino breaks down we may fire up the SER and have a window of opportunity for people to pound on the doors of their community centers and clubhouses to demand the pools be opened.


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